UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Upton early thinking of 3-4" along and north of 84.. These totals were decreased 3 hours later... 1-2 general for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Albany: THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOWOVERSPREADING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. BY DAYBREAK SOUTHERN AREASCOULD PERHAPS GET A DUSTING TO AN INCH...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY TOTHE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO BERKSHIRES AND POINTSNORTH AN INCH OR TWO. I know I said no greed, but it's hard not to be a little disappointed with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Notes from Mt Holly NWS. Point & Click is going with 1-2 inches of snow/sleet. December will not be a shut out. MONDAY NIGHT...A WINTER WX ADVISORY SITUATION APPEARS PROBABLE FOR APORTION OF REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-78, ESPECIALLY CARBON, MONROENORTHAMPTON COUNTIES IN PA AND SUSSEX, WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIESIN NORTHWEST NJ.A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH RAIN EXCEPT MIXEDWINTRY PRECIPITATION NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78. THE THERMAL PROFILEBETWEEN 850 AND 700MB (ESPECIALLY NEAR 775MB) WILL BE MARGINALLYABOVE FREEZING BUT VERTICAL VELOCITY AND WET BULBING MAY COOL THECOLUMN ENOUGH TO PERMIT BETWEEN 1 AND 5 HOURS OF MOSTLY SNOW NEARAND NORTH OF ROUTE 80 CENTERED IN THE 02Z-09Z TIME FRAME, THEN ACHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN THEREBETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. FURTHER SOUTH NEAR I-78 INCLUDING BERKS, THELEHIGH VALLEY, WARREN HUNTERDON MORRIS AND SOMERSET. RAIN ANDSLEET TO START WITH POSSIBLY A TOUCH OF SNOW. FREEZING RAIN ISPOSSIBLE NEAR MIDNIGHT BEFORE IT WARMS ENOUGH TO ALL RAIN BY 11ZTUESDAY.PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.ITS FAR TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY EXPRESS SNOW/GLAZE ACCUMULATIONSBECAUSE OF THE PTYPE ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE ANDTIMING DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH THE BRIEFLY FAVORABLE PORTION OF THISTHERMAL PROFILE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH, THE 12Z/26 ECMWF THERMALPROFILE LOOKS A BIT COLDER THAN THE 12Z/GFS/NAM 50 50 BLEND.STRONGLY SUGGEST USING THE PROBABILISTIC SNOW GRIDS AVAILABLE ON OURWEB SITE, INCLUDING PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN TRACE OF SNOW AND10 PCT EXCEEDANCE.PTYPE FM THICKNESS WAS FOUND AS EASIEST TO USE FOR THIS SITUATIONAND THE PARTIAL THICKNESS WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM.(WE ARE AWARE THE NAM WAS COLDER MONDAY NIGHT BECAUSE IT WASSLIGHTLY SLOWER). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Not saying were going to get more but you are reading that AFD wrong. It's not forecast to start until a few hrs before daybreak in the Alb. coverage area so there wouldn't be that much by daybreak anyway. Albany: I know I said no greed, but it's hard not to be a little disappointed with this system. Not starting up there till 4 am so not much by daybreak regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If I get at least .6 out of this it will make it snowier than last December IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 1-3" seems like a good call right now. Looks like we could get 1-2" of sleet on top as well. Nonetheless it should look wintery tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like sleet is the call for tomorrow night. As much as I hate shoveling it I love being outside while it's happening. Which seasns were they when the last two storms of one year and the first two of the next were nearly 100% sleet? Killed my back but totally satisfied my need for extreme weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like sleet is the call for tomorrow night. As much as I hate shoveling it I love being outside while it's happening. Which seasns were they when the last two storms of one year and the first two of the next were nearly 100% sleet? Killed my back but totally satisfied my need for extreme weather 06-07 had two sleet storms in your area: Valentine's Day (major blizzard to the north) and St. Patty's Day (also significant snowfall north). Then, Dec 2007 had a mix event, believe it was 12/16/07. I was in Poughkeepsie and got 10" snow, but you probably mixed a lot. Dobbs Ferry changed to rain, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 06-07 had two sleet storms in your area: Valentine's Day (major blizzard to the north) and St. Patty's Day (also significant snowfall north). Then, Dec 2007 had a mix event, believe it was 12/16/07. I was in Poughkeepsie and got 10" snow, but you probably mixed a lot. Dobbs Ferry changed to rain, I believe.The sleet in that 07 Valentines storm was the worst I've ever driven in, it was literally like driving on ball bearings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 First advisory of the season posted here. Binghamton Nws is thinking not much snow, and I agree. Up to a quarter inch of ice though, yikes. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 NYZ015>018-023-025-044-045-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-048-072-280345- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0014.151229T0100Z-151229T1800Z/ YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND- CHENANGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLONA STN...BENTON...BLUFF POINT... BRANCHPORT...CROSBY...FERGUSON CORNERS...GUYANOGA...BORDER CITY... FAYETTE...SENECA FALLS...TYRE...MAC DOUGALL...MAGEE... PACKWOOD CORNERS...AUBURN...THROOPSVILLE...SYRACUSE... READING CENTER...TOWNSEND...WATKINS GLEN...MONTEREY... MONTOUR FALLS...MORELAND...WEDGEWOOD...ITHACA...CORTLAND... NORWICH...POLKVILLE...PRESTON...SOUTH PLYMOUTH...ROCKDALE... LITCHFIELD...LOCKWOOD...WAVERLY...CATATONK...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON... JOHNSON CITY...NWS BINGHAMTON...ENDICOTT...UNION CENTER... VESTAL...VESTAL CENTER...NORTH FRANKLIN...MASONVILLE...SIDNEY... BRIDGEVILLE...FORRESTBURG...HARRIS...HARTWOOD...MAPLEWOOD... MONGAUP VALLEY...MONTICELLO...BRACKNEY...CALKINS...SHERMAN... BROWNDALE...EQUINUNK...LAKE COMO...LOOKOUT...PRESTON PARK... MILLRIFT...BEACH LAKE...HEADLEY...HONESDALE...LAURELLA... SEELYVILLE...ARLINGTON...LAKE ARIEL 243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HAZARDOUS MIX OF SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...POCONOS, CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK, FINGER LAKES REGION AND GREATER SYRACUSE AREA. * HAZARD TYPES...SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE FROM THE COMBINATION OF ICE AND GUSTY WINDS. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT, RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected]. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 06-07 had two sleet storms in your area: Valentine's Day (major blizzard to the north) and St. Patty's Day (also significant snowfall north). Then, Dec 2007 had a mix event, believe it was 12/16/07. I was in Poughkeepsie and got 10" snow, but you probably mixed a lot. Dobbs Ferry changed to rain, I believe. Yeah that was it, I thought I remembered two in Dec '07 but you actually keep records whereas I keep memories. The two storms in Feb and Mar of '07 were brutal. One was at least 6" of nothin' but sleet and temps were in the single digits. I spent most of the night outside just pushing ball bearings around with a shovel and loving the extreme nature of the event. I'm so glad I didn't have to drive that night. The sleet in that 07 Valentines storm was the worst I've ever driven in, it was literally like driving on ball bearings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 First advisory of the season posted here. Binghamton Nws is thinking not much snow, and I agree. Up to a quarter inch of ice though, yikes. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 NYZ015>018-023-025-044-045-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-048-072-280345- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0014.151229T0100Z-151229T1800Z/ YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND- CHENANGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLONA STN...BENTON...BLUFF POINT... BRANCHPORT...CROSBY...FERGUSON CORNERS...GUYANOGA...BORDER CITY... FAYETTE...SENECA FALLS...TYRE...MAC DOUGALL...MAGEE... PACKWOOD CORNERS...AUBURN...THROOPSVILLE...SYRACUSE... READING CENTER...TOWNSEND...WATKINS GLEN...MONTEREY... MONTOUR FALLS...MORELAND...WEDGEWOOD...ITHACA...CORTLAND... NORWICH...POLKVILLE...PRESTON...SOUTH PLYMOUTH...ROCKDALE... LITCHFIELD...LOCKWOOD...WAVERLY...CATATONK...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON... JOHNSON CITY...NWS BINGHAMTON...ENDICOTT...UNION CENTER... VESTAL...VESTAL CENTER...NORTH FRANKLIN...MASONVILLE...SIDNEY... BRIDGEVILLE...FORRESTBURG...HARRIS...HARTWOOD...MAPLEWOOD... MONGAUP VALLEY...MONTICELLO...BRACKNEY...CALKINS...SHERMAN... BROWNDALE...EQUINUNK...LAKE COMO...LOOKOUT...PRESTON PARK... MILLRIFT...BEACH LAKE...HEADLEY...HONESDALE...LAURELLA... SEELYVILLE...ARLINGTON...LAKE ARIEL 243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HAZARDOUS MIX OF SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...POCONOS, CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK, FINGER LAKES REGION AND GREATER SYRACUSE AREA. * HAZARD TYPES...SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE FROM THE COMBINATION OF ICE AND GUSTY WINDS. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT, RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected]. && And OKX put up one too. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 320 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 ...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY... CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-280430- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0017.151229T0100Z-151229T1600Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 320 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY. * HAZARD TYPES...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH FROM AROUND A TRACE TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The RGEM would indicate some bursts of fairly intense sleet along the warm front late tonight. Just for reference, ice pellets generally have a frozen-liquid ratio of about 1:3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 RGEM is showing 10-15mm of sleet for most in Orange/Ulster/Sullivan/Dutchess counties.. Close to 2" of sleet alone. Hey atleast it will finally look wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sullivan looks to take the biggest hit.. 2" of IP as well as over .50" of zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 RGEM is showing 10-15mm of sleet for most in Orange/Ulster/Sullivan/Dutchess counties.. Close to 2" of sleet alone. Hey atleast it will finally look wintry Looks like I picked a perfect time to put snow tires on my car. This will be my third winter up here and after the past two I decided I would never go through another one without (studded) snow tires. First time in almost forty years that I'll be using them. The town of Fallsburg already made its robo-call warning of poor traveling conditions and possible power outages. Gonna make a run to the store now to pick up some bread. I already have the milk and eggs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like I picked a perfect time to put snow tires on my car. This will be my third winter up here and after the past two I decided I would never go through another one without (studded) snow tires. First time in almost forty years that I'll be using them. The town of Fallsburg already made its robo-call warning of poor traveling conditions and possible power outages. Gonna make a run to the store now to pick up some bread. I already have the milk and eggs. lol.. Yeah you guys in Sullivan are gonna have to deal with ice and we all know that = power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Hey gang, dusting off the old account after waking up from my summer slumber. Happy holidays and hope all is well. Looking forward to another winter of deep conversations and light snow. Or the other way around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like I picked a perfect time to put snow tires on my car. This will be my third winter up here and after the past two I decided I would never go through another one without (studded) snow tires. First time in almost forty years that I'll be using them. The town of Fallsburg already made its robo-call warning of poor traveling conditions and possible power outages. Gonna make a run to the store now to pick up some bread. I already have the milk and eggs. Hey gang, dusting off the old account after waking up from my summer slumber. Happy holidays and hope all is well. Looking forward to another winter of deep conversations and light snow. Or the other way around? Glad to see you guys back in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Hey everyone. Also waking up from summer/fall lurking mode. I am up in Stowe VT for this one so hoping to see some moderate snowfall. Good luck with the sleetfest down there. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 29 here in the Poconos, moderate sleet with flakes mixed in has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Hey everyone. Also waking up from summer/fall lurking mode. I am up in Stowe VT for this one so hoping to see some moderate snowfall. Good luck with the sleetfest down there. Sent from my iPhone Cool, I was up there in October. If you like cheese be sure to check out the Cabot outlet store on the way back down to Waterbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Sleet and warm here at 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 80/20 Sleet/Snow here.. 27.9f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Latest HRRR is a solid 8-9 hours of sleet and mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Latest HRRR is a solid 8-9 hours of sleet and mix Yeah, looks like a big break after this round though. For me atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yeah, looks like a big break after this round though. For me atleast. Everyone should cut off from precip between 9-11 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 HRRR says moderate mix from 2300-0900, for anyone around and north of 84, at that point everyone south of Kingston flips to a brief period of broken rain showers....could see some crazy sleet accumulations depending on where you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Everyone should cut off from precip between 9-11 ish Sounds right, depending on how N or S you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 All snow/Mix line looks to be cutting Ulster/Dutchess counties in half.. North of New Paltz/Poughkeepsie looks to be all snow for a few hours at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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