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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2015/16


snywx

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Albany:

 

 

THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. BY DAYBREAK SOUTHERN AREAS
COULD PERHAPS GET A DUSTING TO AN INCH
...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY TO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO BERKSHIRES AND POINTS
NORTH AN INCH OR TWO.

 

:axe:

 

I know I said no greed, but it's hard not to be a little disappointed with this system.

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Notes from Mt Holly NWS. Point & Click is going with 1-2 inches of snow/sleet.

December will not be a shut out.

 

MONDAY NIGHT...A WINTER WX ADVISORY SITUATION APPEARS PROBABLE FOR A
PORTION OF REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-78, ESPECIALLY CARBON, MONROE
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES IN PA AND SUSSEX, WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST NJ.


A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH RAIN EXCEPT MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78. THE THERMAL PROFILE
BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB (ESPECIALLY NEAR 775MB) WILL BE MARGINALLY
ABOVE FREEZING BUT VERTICAL VELOCITY AND WET BULBING MAY COOL THE
COLUMN ENOUGH TO PERMIT BETWEEN 1 AND 5 HOURS OF MOSTLY SNOW NEAR
AND NORTH OF ROUTE 80 CENTERED IN THE 02Z-09Z TIME FRAME, THEN A

CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN THERE
BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. FURTHER SOUTH NEAR I-78 INCLUDING BERKS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, WARREN HUNTERDON MORRIS AND SOMERSET. RAIN AND
SLEET TO START WITH POSSIBLY A TOUCH OF SNOW. FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE NEAR MIDNIGHT BEFORE IT WARMS ENOUGH TO ALL RAIN BY 11Z
TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ITS FAR TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY EXPRESS SNOW/GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS
BECAUSE OF THE PTYPE ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE AND
TIMING DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH THE BRIEFLY FAVORABLE PORTION OF THIS
THERMAL PROFILE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH, THE 12Z/26 ECMWF THERMAL
PROFILE LOOKS A BIT COLDER THAN THE 12Z/GFS/NAM 50 50 BLEND.

STRONGLY SUGGEST USING THE PROBABILISTIC SNOW GRIDS AVAILABLE ON OUR
WEB SITE, INCLUDING PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN TRACE OF SNOW AND
10 PCT EXCEEDANCE.

PTYPE FM THICKNESS WAS FOUND AS EASIEST TO USE FOR THIS SITUATION
AND THE PARTIAL THICKNESS WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM.
(WE ARE AWARE THE NAM WAS COLDER MONDAY NIGHT BECAUSE IT WAS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER).

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Not saying were going to get more but you are reading that AFD wrong. It's not forecast to start until a few hrs before daybreak in the Alb. coverage area so there wouldn't be that much by daybreak anyway.

Albany:

:axe:

I know I said no greed, but it's hard not to be a little disappointed with this system.

Not starting up there till 4 am so not much by daybreak regardless.
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Looks like sleet is the call for tomorrow night. As much as I hate shoveling it I love being outside while it's happening. Which seasns were they when the last two storms of one year and the first two of the next were nearly 100% sleet? Killed my back but totally satisfied my need for extreme weather :twister:

06-07 had two sleet storms in your area: Valentine's Day (major blizzard to the north) and St. Patty's Day (also significant snowfall north). Then, Dec 2007 had a mix event, believe it was 12/16/07. I was in Poughkeepsie and got 10" snow, but you probably mixed a lot. Dobbs Ferry changed to rain, I believe.

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06-07 had two sleet storms in your area: Valentine's Day (major blizzard to the north) and St. Patty's Day (also significant snowfall north). Then, Dec 2007 had a mix event, believe it was 12/16/07. I was in Poughkeepsie and got 10" snow, but you probably mixed a lot. Dobbs Ferry changed to rain, I believe.

The sleet in that 07 Valentines storm was the worst I've ever driven in, it was literally like driving on ball bearings.
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First advisory of the season posted here. Binghamton Nws is thinking not much snow, and I agree. Up to a quarter inch of ice though, yikes.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

NYZ015>018-023-025-044-045-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-048-072-280345-

/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0014.151229T0100Z-151229T1800Z/

YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-

CHENANGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-

NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLONA STN...BENTON...BLUFF POINT...

BRANCHPORT...CROSBY...FERGUSON CORNERS...GUYANOGA...BORDER CITY...

FAYETTE...SENECA FALLS...TYRE...MAC DOUGALL...MAGEE...

PACKWOOD CORNERS...AUBURN...THROOPSVILLE...SYRACUSE...

READING CENTER...TOWNSEND...WATKINS GLEN...MONTEREY...

MONTOUR FALLS...MORELAND...WEDGEWOOD...ITHACA...CORTLAND...

NORWICH...POLKVILLE...PRESTON...SOUTH PLYMOUTH...ROCKDALE...

LITCHFIELD...LOCKWOOD...WAVERLY...CATATONK...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON...

JOHNSON CITY...NWS BINGHAMTON...ENDICOTT...UNION CENTER...

VESTAL...VESTAL CENTER...NORTH FRANKLIN...MASONVILLE...SIDNEY...

BRIDGEVILLE...FORRESTBURG...HARRIS...HARTWOOD...MAPLEWOOD...

MONGAUP VALLEY...MONTICELLO...BRACKNEY...CALKINS...SHERMAN...

BROWNDALE...EQUINUNK...LAKE COMO...LOOKOUT...PRESTON PARK...

MILLRIFT...BEACH LAKE...HEADLEY...HONESDALE...LAURELLA...

SEELYVILLE...ARLINGTON...LAKE ARIEL

243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HAZARDOUS MIX OF SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND

SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...POCONOS, CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK,

FINGER LAKES REGION AND GREATER SYRACUSE AREA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1

INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING

AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN

WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE

FROM THE COMBINATION OF ICE AND GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT, RISING ABOVE

FREEZING BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT

[email protected].

&&

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06-07 had two sleet storms in your area: Valentine's Day (major blizzard to the north) and St. Patty's Day (also significant snowfall north). Then, Dec 2007 had a mix event, believe it was 12/16/07. I was in Poughkeepsie and got 10" snow, but you probably mixed a lot. Dobbs Ferry changed to rain, I believe.

 

Yeah that was it, I thought I remembered two in Dec '07 but you actually keep records whereas I keep memories.  The two storms in Feb and Mar of '07 were brutal.  One was at least 6" of nothin' but sleet and temps were in the single digits.  I spent most of the night outside just pushing ball bearings around with a shovel and loving the extreme nature of the event.  I'm so glad I didn't have to drive that night.

The sleet in that 07 Valentines storm was the worst I've ever driven in, it was literally like driving on ball bearings.

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First advisory of the season posted here. Binghamton Nws is thinking not much snow, and I agree. Up to a quarter inch of ice though, yikes.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

NYZ015>018-023-025-044-045-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-048-072-280345-

/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0014.151229T0100Z-151229T1800Z/

YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-

CHENANGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-

NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLONA STN...BENTON...BLUFF POINT...

BRANCHPORT...CROSBY...FERGUSON CORNERS...GUYANOGA...BORDER CITY...

FAYETTE...SENECA FALLS...TYRE...MAC DOUGALL...MAGEE...

PACKWOOD CORNERS...AUBURN...THROOPSVILLE...SYRACUSE...

READING CENTER...TOWNSEND...WATKINS GLEN...MONTEREY...

MONTOUR FALLS...MORELAND...WEDGEWOOD...ITHACA...CORTLAND...

NORWICH...POLKVILLE...PRESTON...SOUTH PLYMOUTH...ROCKDALE...

LITCHFIELD...LOCKWOOD...WAVERLY...CATATONK...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON...

JOHNSON CITY...NWS BINGHAMTON...ENDICOTT...UNION CENTER...

VESTAL...VESTAL CENTER...NORTH FRANKLIN...MASONVILLE...SIDNEY...

BRIDGEVILLE...FORRESTBURG...HARRIS...HARTWOOD...MAPLEWOOD...

MONGAUP VALLEY...MONTICELLO...BRACKNEY...CALKINS...SHERMAN...

BROWNDALE...EQUINUNK...LAKE COMO...LOOKOUT...PRESTON PARK...

MILLRIFT...BEACH LAKE...HEADLEY...HONESDALE...LAURELLA...

SEELYVILLE...ARLINGTON...LAKE ARIEL

243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HAZARDOUS MIX OF SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND

SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...POCONOS, CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK,

FINGER LAKES REGION AND GREATER SYRACUSE AREA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1

INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING

AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN

WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE

FROM THE COMBINATION OF ICE AND GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT, RISING ABOVE

FREEZING BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT

[email protected].

&&

And OKX put up one too.

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

320 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING

ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON

VALLEY...AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY...

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-280430-

/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0017.151229T0100Z-151229T1600Z/

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-

NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

320 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM

EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8

PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF THE LOWER

HUDSON VALLEY...AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH

FROM AROUND A TRACE TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEST TO

EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE

INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

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RGEM is showing 10-15mm of sleet for most in Orange/Ulster/Sullivan/Dutchess counties.. Close to 2" of sleet alone. Hey atleast it will finally look wintry

 

Looks like I picked a perfect time to put snow tires on my car. This will be my third winter up here and after the past two I decided I would never go through another one without (studded) snow tires. First time in almost forty years that I'll be using them. 

 

The town of Fallsburg already made its robo-call warning of poor traveling conditions and possible power outages.

Gonna make a run to the store now to pick up some bread. I already have the milk and eggs.  :whistle:

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Looks like I picked a perfect time to put snow tires on my car. This will be my third winter up here and after the past two I decided I would never go through another one without (studded) snow tires. First time in almost forty years that I'll be using them. 

 

The town of Fallsburg already made its robo-call warning of poor traveling conditions and possible power outages.

Gonna make a run to the store now to pick up some bread. I already have the milk and eggs.  :whistle:

 

lol.. Yeah you guys in Sullivan are gonna have to deal with ice and we all know that = power outages. 

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Looks like I picked a perfect time to put snow tires on my car. This will be my third winter up here and after the past two I decided I would never go through another one without (studded) snow tires. First time in almost forty years that I'll be using them. 

 

The town of Fallsburg already made its robo-call warning of poor traveling conditions and possible power outages.

Gonna make a run to the store now to pick up some bread. I already have the milk and eggs.  :whistle:

 

 

Hey gang, dusting off the old account after waking up from my summer slumber. Happy holidays and hope all is well. Looking forward to another winter of deep conversations and light snow. Or the other way around?  :popcorn:

Glad to see you guys back in here.

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Hey everyone. Also waking up from summer/fall lurking mode. I am up in Stowe VT for this one so hoping to see some moderate snowfall. Good luck with the sleetfest down there.

Sent from my iPhone

Cool, I was up there in October. If you like cheese be sure to check out the Cabot outlet store on the way back down to Waterbury.

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