UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 12z GFS is even colder for Monday-Monday night.. One thing we know far too well up here is that CAD is usually underestimated in these parts. Good call this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Good call this week Not there yet but its looking more and more likely this will be our first wintry event. Thanks bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Not there yet but its looking more and more likely this will be our first wintry event. Thanks bro It's been said a few times... With this pattern and set-up we could be looking at a return to the classic interior winters, 84 battleground, and Rockland county mix line lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 It's been said a few times... With this pattern and set-up we could be looking at a return to the classic interior winters, 84 battleground, and Rockland county mix line lol This upcoming system has the classic SWFE look to it. Early guess I would say 2-4" to steady rain or drizzle. Ill take it considering its in the mid 60s right now lol. This def does have to potential to over perform though. Could be a sign of things to come.. Interior winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This upcoming system has the classic SWFE look to it. Early guess I would say 2-4" to steady rain or drizzle. Ill take it considering its in the mid 60s right now lol. This def does have to potential to over perform though. Could be a sign of things to come.. Interior winter? I would take it too. Crazy to think we could get anything frozen with the monthly average temps. so much above normal. We'll see Today's 12z GFS is spitting out 5.7" of snow for the 12/29 event at KSWF http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Picked up #2 son at LaGuardia this morning, ran the AC the whole time, crazy! Would love to see some winter soon which will feel bitter after this mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Picked up #2 son at LaGuardia this morning, ran the AC the whole time, crazy! Would love to see some winter soon which will feel bitter after this mess! Thinking about flipping on the central a/c for the house. Can't get the christmas cookies to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Thinking about flipping on the central a/c for the house. Can't get the christmas cookies to cool. As soon as I got home I opened all my windows to warm up my house, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Hearing good things about the Euro for next week. I'm growing cautiously optimistic about our chances for accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm at the Danbury mall right now, even though the place is nearly empty at least half the people here are wearing shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm at the Danbury mall right now, even though the place is nearly empty at least half the people here are wearing shorts. I wore shorts today The warmth is one thing, but it actually feels really humid out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm at the Danbury mall right now, even though the place is nearly empty at least half the people here are wearing shorts. From wearing shorts to pushing a snow blower in 5 days.. Gotta love Denver I mean the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 18z GFS is even more bullish on snow totals for lower and mid Hudson valley, general 4-6" locally higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Where do I sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Where do I sign You looks to be a nice spot for this event. That map indicated 4-6 for my street. That would be a nice way to end the month. Need that High to get a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Were looking good boys for our first snow event, and a warning criteria at that, imagine that. 70F on xmas eve, and not even an advisory level snow or dusting, 5 days later we may see a WSW and 4-8"... Here's the general consensus between models for most of us in and around the 84 corridor GEM- 6-10" GFS- 6-10 Euro- 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 12z GFS took a big step toward the Euro.. This is prob gonna be a 1-3", 2-4" type event ending as rain. Ill take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12z GFS took a big step toward the Euro.. This is prob gonna be a 1-3", 2-4" type event ending as rain. Ill take it! Down by me I doubt I even get an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12z GFS took a big step toward the Euro.. This is prob gonna be a 1-3", 2-4" type event ending as rain. Ill take it! Yeah, exactly, there's no room for greed in December '15. Still seems like a precarious setup to me... 1-4" unfortunately doesn't give us much room for error with something like 90 hours to go. Merry Christmas to all those who celebrate, and happy Friday otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah, exactly, there's no room for greed in December '15. Still seems like a precarious setup to me... 1-4" unfortunately doesn't give us much room for error with something like 90 hours to go. Merry Christmas to all those who celebrate, and happy Friday otherwise Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas and happy weekend everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas!! Merry Christmas. Enjoy whatever snow you get next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18z GFS looks decent for the interior - that solution could yield something like 4" before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 18z GFS looks decent for the interior - that solution could yield something like 4" before the flip. Can't see much here at work... Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Upton... ACROSS INTERIOR...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SNOW/SLEET INLAND MON NIGHT UNTIL H7-8 WARMING OCCURS ALOFT...THEN TRANSITIONING TOSLEET/FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUE MORNING AND ALL RAIN BY EARLYAFTERNOON. ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SPREAD...LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE INWINTRY P-TYPE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT (DURATION/AMOUNT OF ALL SNOWVERSUS ALL SLEET OR WINTRY MIX). WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS PRECIP TOCOME IN HEAVY...P-TYPE FORECAST AND TRANSITION TIMES WILL BECRITICAL IN DETERMINE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AT THISPOINT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH AGLAZING OF ICE EXISTS...BEFORE CHANGEOVER TUES MORNING. PROBABILITYOF WARNING LEVEL SNOW LOOKS LOW. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW INLAND NOW LOOK LESS THAN THEY DID BEFORE...COULD STILL SEESIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO EARLY TUE MORNING TRAVEL FROM A MODERATE TOHEAVY WINTRY MIX. P-TYPE FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST LOOKS MORESTRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH MAINLY RAIN...BUT LIKELY BEGINNING AS A MIXOF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET...WITH A TRACE TO COATING OF WINTRY MIX ACCUMPOSSIBLE. LITTLE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE EXPECTED WITH STRONGEASTERLY FLOW AND WARM OCEAN TEMPS...QUICKLY WARMING SURFACE TEMPSABOVE FREEZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Upton early thinking of 3-4" along and north of 84.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Upton early thinking of 3-4" along and north of 84.. I'll take it lol... Doubtful unless we over perform or see models bring that high back west within the next 24/48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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