UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 JMA drops 14-18" for ALL here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Suppression seems to be less and less an issue with this setup. Would hate to speak to soon and see it trend the wrong way tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:59 PM, LaGrangewx said: Suppression seems to be less and less an issue with this setup. Would hate to speak to soon and see it trend the wrong way tho. I really don't see this closing off that early, the high retreats and flattens on every model except the euro, causing the system to stay a bit more south, I really think we see the euro do a full cave by Wednesday to GGEM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yea 12z euro yesterday had something like that than took a little step backwards 0z and now forward again 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z euro looks totally different than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:53 PM, Animal said: Drops near a foot well into north cetral PA & NY state. Will not take much for the hearvier QPF totals to drift north and west the next few days. Agreed.. I would love to see this close off near the coast of S NJ.. If thats the case it will snow up here for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lots to watch and monitor The snow weenie in me wants to get super excited, but the realistic part of me says to chill and not get emotionally invested for the risk of getting burned. Well, at least we have some high potential here after a pretty boring season so far. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:07 PM, White Gorilla said: Lots to watch and monitor The snow weenie in me wants to get super excited, but the realistic part of me says to chill and not get emotionally invested for the risk of getting burned. Well, at least we have some high potential here after a pretty boring season so far. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Couldn't agree more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sounds like the EPS are NW of the ops.. Def a good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:42 PM, snywx said: Sounds like the EPS are NW of the ops.. Def a good trend I was looking at the individuals and, like the GEFS, they are a little inconsistent the further north one goes from NYC. For my area, there are about 10-12 near/total misses (<3" of snow), 14-16 big hits (>10"), and the rest are in between. A little more consensus than 00z but the mean isn't much different (though there is a sharper cutoff to the north this run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Heard someone say 500mb setup could warrant a little south trend can anyone explain that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What does it seem to indicate currently for total accum for zip code 10952 on GFS, and what about on Euro? Thank you Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:56 PM, LaGrangewx said: Heard someone say 500mb setup could warrant a little south trend can anyone explain that? If H5 closes off too soon, The low will slide too much south and east, we want it close of a bit later out over he jersey coast preferable, it'll stall and smash us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:57 PM, nycemt123 said: What does it seem to indicate currently for total accum for zip code 10952 on GFS, and what about on Euro? Thank you Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk 12-18 euro GFS you can check out yourself http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011812&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:56 PM, LaGrangewx said: Heard someone say 500mb setup could warrant a little south trend can anyone explain that? We want it to close off further to the N. If the euro is correct then no way places up here receive 12"+.. Cant recall when we received that much snow from a system cut off near NC/VA. The system will just occlude to the south and rot down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:57 PM, nycemt123 said: What does it seem to indicate currently for total accum for zip code 10952 on GFS, and what about on Euro? Thank you Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk 12-18 on both probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 9:07 PM, LaGrangewx said: 12-18 on both probablyThanks! Keeping my toes crossed Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 5:40 PM, IrishRob17 said: This watch is no longer in effect...a Newbie Weenie Warning has been issued, be prepared for names you've never seen before asking questions that could easily be answered if they took a minute to check out a couple of the pinned threads. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 9:16 PM, Rjay said: Sigh. I would not want to have your job if this storm ends up giving DC 3 feet and whiffing in NYC. That would be a meltdown for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 9:29 PM, chietanen said: I would not want to have your job if this storm ends up giving DC 3 feet and whiffing in NYC. That would be a meltdown for the ages. There'd be a lot of suspensions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 9:29 PM, chietanen said: I would not want to have your job if this storm ends up giving DC 3 feet and whiffing in NYC. That would be a meltdown for the ages. Happened February 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 9:05 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 12-18 euro GFS you can check out yourself http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011812&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=49 Thanks! You're right, except I'm at work at the moment and have to hide my phone with my desk so can't really read through it lolSent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 9:32 PM, LaGrangewx said: Happened February 2010 All indications are that most posters in the main threads weren't alive yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 9:29 PM, chietanen said: I would not want to have your job if this storm ends up giving DC 3 feet and whiffing in NYC. That would be a meltdown for the ages.Are you nuts? A small part of me would gladly give up the storm to watch (and then ban) all the meltdown posts (and the "i told you so" people too). Either way its gonna be epic. http://youtube.com/watch?v=r5J78-XGNZA Wtf why can i suddenly not embed vids? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 9:40 PM, Juliancolton said: All indications are that most posters in the main threads weren't alive yet...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 9:56 PM, BxEngine said: Are you nuts? A small part of me would gladly give up the storm to watch (and then ban) all the meltdown posts (and the "i told you so" people too). Either way its gonna be epic. http://youtube.com/watch?v=r5J78-XGNZA Wtf why can i suddenly not embed vids? Off with their heads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We may well miss the nuclear dynamics, but I think we'd all sign up for this look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:16 PM, Juliancolton said: We may well miss the nuclear dynamics, but I think we'd all sign up for this look: Those dynamics look to be occurring over E PA.. Jeez they get destroyed this run. Nonetheless things are looking better for our BYs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yea 18z is a crush job 16-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Mixing might becoming an issue for the coast. GGEM introduced it earlier now the GFS is starting to hint at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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