Allsnow Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It's over...convection not firing and the best stuff is in southern PA dropping south. Forget about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It's over...convection not firing and the best stuff is in southern PA dropping south. Forget about itsomething has to fire on that OFB or we're boned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 After two crap runs in a row by the HRRR which was showing convection where it wasn't it has finally caught on. Still shows the storms currently in NW NJ congealing into a solid line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NY INTO CT/RI/MASS/VT/NH/MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341... VALID 231846Z - 232015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY OCCUR PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN/FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NY AS OF 245 PM EDT/1845Z. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST GLANCING INFLUENCES OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF MULTICELLS/EVOLVING LINEAR BANDS MAY ULTIMATELY BE THE MORE PREVALENT CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE/SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. ..GUYER.. 06/23/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I've never seen such nonsense in my life. Oh wait yes I have, every time a storm misses someone's backyard they call bust. The pure nature of discrete convection means that it's somewhat isolated. With that being said, the parameters don't get much better than this for the northeast. Who knows, maybe that NYC split on the 4k NAM is reality, but I highly doubt that given the tremendous amount of instability and strong shear present. But that's not the Armageddon that people have been talking about and wishcasting for here. Sure, there are going to be a few severe or close to severe storms. But bow echo lines? Tornados? Squall lines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Park down to 87 again. No 90 yet it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 But that's not the Armageddon that people have been talking about and wishcasting for here. Sure, there are going to be a few severe or close to severe storms. But bow echo lines? Tornados? Squall lines? Yes, all of which are possible. -___- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Nice garden variety thunderstorm heading here. Not sure why it's warned still. Velocities aren't impressive, no reports, and VIL is pretty run of the mill. Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Parameters don't fall off once this line in NNJ passes through, just so you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Lol the radar look atrocious...looks luke a quick shower for most when the front pushes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 More storms are firing over Central PA behind this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 good parameters are useless if there are no storms to act on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Glad that storm is missing to the north. We need as much cape in place as possible for the big show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 So what's the problem this time? Everything looks seemingly favorable but nothing's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Our stuff comes from what's near Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 People getting to feisty to throw in the towel...I'd wait until 5 personally. If things don't get going by then, we can start worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 You guys are acting like that small line blows through and that's it. The front is hundreds of miles West. Hardly even a dent in the SBCAPE in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yes, all of which are possible. -___- Oh please. I'm not even a met and I can see that this is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sky turning black to my NW. Severe or not, should be a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Oh please. I'm not even a met and I can see that this is highly unlikely. You're underestimating the parameters. If a good storm forms, it's gonna be really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sky turning black to my NW. Severe or not, should be a nice storm.pic please? Stuck at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Several rumbles of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Oh please. I'm not even a met and I can see that this is highly unlikely.It's much easier to sit there and play Monday morning QB while b*tchng and moaning than it is to actually put your neck out there and make a forecast. If you could read a sounding, you would be able to tell that today did/does have potential. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Getting very dark here and just had first rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Time to stick the fork in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wow a whole .05 of rain and one rumble of thunder . Dud just as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 You're underestimating the parameters. If a good storm forms, it's gonna be really good. If ... being the keyword. And they are not forming ... at least not to the immediate west of NYC with the exception of one small cluster just north of NYC. Not sure if this is even within severe limits. South of NYC and in NJ? Maybe another story as there looks to be more storms. Question is ... do they stay together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Lolz yanksfan is in his tornado shelter awaiting its arrival If you guys want to troll then take it to PM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Warnings have been dropped for storms in North Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.