atownwxwatcher Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The cell that is west of here (allentown) and heading E N E that will miss here indeed is weakening. Using weathertap only shows about 50 dbz.. I be disappointed if that hit here cause it be a little rain some thunder and lightning and rain and nothing severe... Keep in mind anything that comes across mountains usually hits a brick wall and the mountains tear them up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Are people throwing in the towel already? Still lots of cloud cover here. Those storms are racing east wirh no explosive intensification. That line east of Pittsburgh looks to be the main show. On its current track that would miss us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Still lots of cloud cover here. Those storms are racing east wirh no explosive intensification. That line east of Pittsburgh looks to be the main show. On its current track that would miss us to the south. Yep. Looks to be the main line, but its moving slowly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The cell that is west of here (allentown) and heading E N E that will miss here indeed is weakening. Using weathertap only shows about 50 dbz.. I be disappointed if that hit here cause it be a little rain some thunder and lightning and rain and nothing severe... Keep in mind anything that comes across mountains usually hits a brick wall and the mountains tear them up.. That cell for my area came in pretty impressively but was nothing mind blowing. I'd estimate it as a 1 to 2 minute period of very strong winds (less than 60mph) and some heavy rain with a few flashes of lightning. Long way between here and the NYC area though so it could very well strenghten again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I've never seen such nonsense in my life. Oh wait yes I have, every time a storm misses someone's backyard they call bust. The pure nature of discrete convection means that it's somewhat isolated. With that being said, the parameters don't get much better than this for the northeast. Who knows, maybe that NYC split on the 4k NAM is reality, but I highly doubt that given the tremendous amount of instability and strong shear present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Still lots of cloud cover here. Those storms are racing east wirh no explosive intensification. That line east of Pittsburgh looks to be the main show. On its current track that would miss us to the south. If so then it's not a shocker. 99% of these events fail but I'd rather let things play out first before crying bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 There are also a bunch of small cells scattered over northern PA and south central NY, they are struggling now but as the cap breaks the activity will become a little more widespread, let's wait for a little for the panic posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 That cell for my area came in pretty impressively but was nothing mind blowing. I'd estimate it as a 1 to 2 minute period of very strong winds (less than 60mph) and some heavy rain with a few flashes of lightning. Long way between here and the NYC area though so it could very well strenghten again. Hence why i be disappointed lol Anyway that warning expired and from the looks of it that will not be reissued cause its even weaker now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some people here don't understand what it means to have an EML because we hardly ever are fortunate enough to get one. Only the strongest updrafts will be able to break the CAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Everyone wants to see this massive squall line or MCS because we're use to that being our only storm mode. Our severe threat will be much longer if we only get a few discrete cells ahead of a main event later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 If so then it's not a shocker. 99% of these events fail but I'd rather let things play out first before crying bust. I'm not calling bust at all. Not with those parameters in place. We still have time but storms need to fire soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 No one is calling a bust or panicking. We are simply facing reality. I still think we get something decent before the day ends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some people here don't understand what it means to have an EML because we hardly ever are fortunate enough to get one. Only the strongest updrafts will be able to break the CAP. The current cells that look like they are having the best success busting the CAP are headed for Sussex and Warren CO. We'll have to see what transpires with those cells and potential outflow interactions and developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Everyone wants to see this massive squall line or MCS because we're use to that being our only storm mode. Our severe threat will be much longer if we only get a few discrete cells ahead of a main event later tonight. No , personally I would like to see a severe thunderstorm period.. Not something that gets a warning for 70 MPH winds and quarter size hail and the storm arrives and its 1-2 minutes of rain a clap of thunder. Yep thats been the story all season so far and a couple of years.. I use to get excited when i seen SPC and a slight risk...now ..its like wake me up when its over ... it never pans out (at least across my area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Per met in NE forum that works for NWS, SPC will likely extend the watch after 4PM. This initial watch was for something potentially to pop early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 No , personally I would like to see a severe thunderstorm period.. Not something that gets a warning for 70 MPH winds and quarter size ail and the storm arrives and its 1-2 minutes of rain a clap of thunder. Yep thats been the story all season so far and a couple of years.. I use to get excited when i seen SPC and a slight risk...now ..its like wake me up when its over ... it never pans out (at least across my area) No offense but I wouldn't even consider your area to be part of this sub-forum. Our threats normally blow up as they come off the mountains to your East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Up to a 12, but that's okay because the event is already over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Isentropic, supercell composite of 12 in NNJ. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwang0725 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Supercell Composite of 12 in NE NJ, S Rockland Co. I would relax and let this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Isentropic, supercell composite of 12 in NNJ. Amazing Yes, just posted that. Bust remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 After 4 the storms will pop with vengeance and most will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yes, just posted that. Bust remember? Yeah big bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Up to a 12, but that's okay because the event is already over holy crap Helicity also around 200 Think we see a tornado watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some people here don't understand what it means to have an EML because we hardly ever are fortunate enough to get one. Only the strongest updrafts will be able to break the CAP. We've seen what happens in the plains when the CAP finally breaks down, and it's very possible that the same could happen today. Basically all hell could be let loose given these parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Let's see what happens. Everything looks excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNJC027-037-041-PAC089-095-231930-/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0056.150623T1829Z-150623T1930Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ229 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 330 PM EDT* AT 228 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING LINE OFSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESSOF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROMNEAR SKYTOP TO ANALOMINK TO EAST BANGOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 75MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...NEWTON...MONTAGUE...DOVER...HOPATCONG...EAST STROUDSBURG...HACKETTSTOWN...WHARTON...ROCKAWAY...BLAIRSTOWN...BANGOR...MOUNTARLINGTON...FRANKLIN...MOUNTAIN LAKES...STANHOPE...PEN ARGYL...HAMBURG...NETCONG...BELVIDERE...OXFORD AND OGDENSBURG.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING ANDVERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ONTHE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADSQUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNINGIS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BESTRUCK BY LIGHTNING.TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAYLEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODEDROADWAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 TOR watch should be issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 TOR watch should be issued They are usually a kiss of death for us. Either way it's not like you need a TOR watch in place to get a TOR so don't sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 They are usually a kiss of death for us. Either way it's not like you need a TOR watch in place to get a TOR so don't sweat it. Im not sure I want the cap to break lol those parameters are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 the HRRR is doing a terrible job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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