Big Jims Videos Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Day off. Heading to the beach. With a video camera packed away as well...anything between 195 and 80 I'm making a run for. Not going crazy but really want to get a good hailstorm to sell. Local news stations Philly and NY LOVE HAIL. Easy $$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Parameters are ripe for the rapid intensification of convection over CPA in the next couple hours. Bulk effective shear of 40+kts across much of PA/NJ, MUCAPE > 2500 J/KG, ML lapse rates > 7.0c/km in CPA. Don't think the NEPA cells will hamper our chances. Atmosphere is already very ripe for intense storms at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Parameters are ripe for the rapid intensification of convection over CPA in the next couple hours. Bulk effective shear of 40+kts across much of PA/NJ, MUCAPE > 2500 J/KG, ML lapse rates > 7.0c/km in CPA. Don't think the NEPA cells will hamper our chances. Atmosphere is already very ripe for intense storms at 11am. I dissagree. I think the nepa storms are going to screw up our chances unless they themselves intensify to severe. They are going to steal most of the available cape so the second line will be a run of mill underperforming squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I dissagree. I think the nepa storms are going to screw up our chances unless they themselves intensify to severe. They are going to steal most of the available cape so the second line will be a run of mill underperforming squall line Did you even follow the storms in MI last night? There's CAPE being advected in. The outflow boundary is going to edge north after the storms pass, and you can also get severe from slightly elevated convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I dissagree. I think the nepa storms are going to screw up our chances unless they themselves intensify to severe. They are going to steal most of the available cape so the second line will be a run of mill underperforming squall lineDestabilization is already occurring in earnest and that East PA stuff is not gonna do much of anything for anyone south of extreme North Jersey, it looks a lot better than it did a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Mentioned the microburst potential last evening, seems like it may come to fruition. Lapse rates and availability of strong wind profiles will definitely help that potential. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Today is NYC Metros best day for severe weather. We have favorable bulk shear across the region ranging from 40-50 kts. Couple that with ample MUCAPE/SBCAPE. I'm concerned mostly with damaging wind gust as soundings across the region have a slight inverted v like structure to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Today is NYC Metros best day for severe weather. We have favorable bulk shear across the region ranging from 40-50 kts. Couple that with ample MUCAPE/SBCAPE. I'm concerned mostly with damaging wind gust as soundings across the region have a slight inverted v like structure to them. Yea that inverted v signature was showing up last night on the NAM soundings for KTEB along with 60 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. Couple that with pwats near two inches and things could get interesting. Have to monitor that zombie convection in PA though. Always a potential to throw things off a bit. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yea that inverted v signature was showing up last night on the NAM soundings for KTEB along with 60 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. Couple that with pwats near two inches and things could get interesting. Have to monitor that zombie convection in PA though. Always a potential to throw things off a bit. Sent from my SM-G925V Yeah hopefully the convective debris doesn't ruin the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Well it looks like that area of convection is going to cross NNJ and then NYC which will temporarily knock down the instability but it should quickly recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 That convection is now well north of NYC and losing steam quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Already have CU development here. If that crapvection can just lay enough rain down and the sun can come back out before 2pm we should be able to destabilize quite rapidly. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The convection is dying off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 KNYC is up to 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Well it looks like that area of convection is going to cross NNJ and then NYC which will temporarily knock down the instability but it should quickly recover. The weakening cells moving into northwest NJ will probably pass to the north and west of NYC and immediate New Jersey suburbs. As you note, instability should rebound afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 there's an outflow boundary pushing toward the city. if it doesn't dissipate then it's game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 there's an outflow boundary pushing toward the city. if it doesn't dissipate then it's game over Vigorously disagree. The best storms will ride that boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 That convection is almost entirely dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 15z HRRR continues very impressive with the MCS. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html it shows veering winds with the outflow boundary but mixes it out and backs them again. that has to happen for us to get that MCS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/wloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Up to 91F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 it shows veering winds with the outflow boundary but mixes it out and backs them again. that has to happen for us to get that MCS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/wloop.html it looks like the WAA from the retreating outflow boundary is what triggers the mcs in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Up to 90 with Sun poking thru the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It now appears that the area of dying convection mentioned earlier in this thread is poised to pass near Stony Point and Peekskill, having bypassed much of northern New Jersey and New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 12z SPC WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Legit bow echos in Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Just had a big time wind gust come through here, probably the leftover outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Legit bow echos in Central PA. There's also some weak rotation with the storm just east of KPBZ and slightly stronger rotation with the storm about halfway between KBGM and KCCX. But the straight line winds are more interesting, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 69MPH wind gust at Plum Island on TOR warned cell, could have been a touchdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Here come the strong mid-level lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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