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Severe Threat June 23rd


IsentropicLift

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Possible watch later: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1133.html

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231257Z - 231400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR SOUTHEAST
NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FAST-MOVING LINE OF STORMS IN
SOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 13-14Z AND THEN TRACK ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 14-16Z.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND MRMS-CAPPI
SUGGEST STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FAST EWD-MOVING LINE OF
STORMS /CURRENTLY IN DELAWARE COUNTY NY/ WAS BEGINNING TO
RE-INTENSIFY AGAIN. SURFACE HEATING OF A MOIST DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE A
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/23/2015


ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 42417448 42637288 42587156 42327133 41647169 41357217
41057360 41107422 41027473 41457469 42417448

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Morning convective debris was one of the primary concerns with this set-up. However, I wouldn't say that we're looking at a failed threat just yet. The latest HRRR develops the W PA convection into a line/bowing segment via the strong unidirectional wind shear, which reaches the area by 19z. Nowcasting situation for sure.

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ww0341_radar.gif

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CONNECTICUT
MASSACHUSETTS
SOUTHERN MAINE
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
RHODE ISLAND
SOUTHERN VERMONT
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
400 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AREA...POSING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BRIDGEPORT
CONNECTICUT. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 340...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27040.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

10:10 AM EDT, 6/23,expires 4:00 PM EDT, 6/23

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts southern Maine southern New Hampshire northern New Jersey southeastern New York Rhode Island southern Vermont coastal waters

* effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1010 am until 400 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include... scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

Summary... strong to severe storms are forecast to gradually increase over the next several hours across the northeast/southern New England area... posing risk for damaging winds and hail through this afternoon.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of Concord New Hampshire to 25 miles south southeast of Bridgeport Connecticut. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou1).

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 340...

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040.

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Nevermind, another SVR WATCH

 

ww0342_radar.gif
 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW JERSEY
PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1015 AM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AND
SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSE MAINLY A
DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL THREAT.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ALTOONA PENNSYLVANIA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LAKEHURST NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 340...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.

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