dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Im not that good at reading these soundings. All i know is the lapse rates look good. What does this suggest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Im not that good at reading these soundings. All i know is the lapse rates look good. What does this suggest? Strong instability, sufficient shear, very high PWATS...basically a good profile for a nice severe day if things downstream work out. .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEPARTING MCS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL COMPLICATE FORECAST SOME FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COULD BE PRESENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...IN ADDITION TO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND GUSTY SW FLOW TO PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 IN NYC...LOWER 90S ACROSS NE NJ AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK AROUND 95 IN NYC AND IN THE UPPER 90S IN NE NJ...AND AROUND 90 ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MODEL FCST CAPES OF NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND. AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK MID DAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING INLAND DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FORECAST BY THE MODELS...SEVERE T-STORMS ARE FORECAST...WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING THE ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Max SBCAPE tomorrow early afternoon ahead of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 UPTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY1056 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEPARTING MCS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL COMPLICATE FORECAST SOMEFOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS MOSTLY CLOUDYSKIES COULD BE PRESENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...IN ADDITIONTO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTSNORTH. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND GUSTY SW FLOWTO PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 IN NYC...LOWER 90S ACROSSNE NJ AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAKAROUND 95 IN NYC AND IN THE UPPER 90S IN NE NJ...AND AROUND 90ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THECOLD FRONT...WITH MODEL FCST CAPES OF NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KGESPECIALLY JUST INLAND. AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK MID DAY...THEFRONT WILL BEGIN TO TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WHICHWILL PROGRESS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING INLANDDURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FORECAST BY THE MODELS...SEVERE T-STORMSARE FORECAST...WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING THE ENTIREREGION IN A SLIGHT RISK. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULEDOUT...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THEMAIN THREATS.COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED T-STORMS WILL PUSH SE OF THE REGION DURINGTHE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. ADRIER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AS WELL WITHLOWERING HUMIDITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 That EML signature looks very impressive. I think the forecasted parameters could warrant an extension of the enhanced risk southward into PA/NJ. Bulk shear should be 35-40kts juxtaposed with 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE and mid level lapse rates > 7.5C/KM. My primary concerns are potential convective debris limiting destabilization and the strongest forcing / height falls going too far north. But I think we could see some potent cells develop, possibly even some bow echos with the strong unidirectional shear. Tornado threat should be mostly NY State/New England where helicity values are higher, closer to the warm front / directional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 NY Harbor water temps up into the 70s now, shore temps in the low-mid 70s. That should help not kill whatever heads our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We bang hard with mid to upper 90's ahead of the line That shows 90s here and we are forecasted with a high of 89 (LOL) somethings going to bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 This is a pretty cool graphic. I believe it's actually picking up on strong isolated winds in possible discrete cells ahead of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Enhanced Risk for today. ..NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OFNEW ENGLAND AND MAY POSE A MARGINAL WIND RISK DURING THE MORNING.IN WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY STORM ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTEDTO DESTABILIZE AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NEWD BEHINDAN ADVANCING WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN NEWENGLAND. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AMIDST BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILLYIELD A MODERATELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER BY EARLY AFTERNOON/1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/. STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS FORECASTTO OCCUR FARTHER S ACROSS PA/NJ INTO NRN VA WHERE 2000-3000 J PER KGMLCAPE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ANDHEATING WILL FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS AS CINH IS REMOVED.THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NERNU.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND SUPPORT ORGANIZEDSEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYERSHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC /30-40 KTEFFECTIVE SHEAR/ BUT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE MULTICELLLINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAILTHREAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NERN U.S. COAST BY EVENING WITHTHE REMAINING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT ZIPPERING SWD INTO THEMID-ATLANTIC STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Partly cloudy skies here and 75. Expecting mid 90s here before we bang and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some of the NE crew already calling bust lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Mcs gonna hurt us big time, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Mcs gonna hurt us big time, no?Yes although we should recover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Most models have the stuff in PA drying up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some of the NE crew already calling bust lmao Way too early for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yes although we should recover I was thinking that would fizzle but where exactly is the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Way too early for that I know that's why it's so funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some of the NE crew already calling bust lmaoMany people all over this board spike footballs and call bust too soon. Solid cloud cover here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Many people all over this board spike footballs and call bust too soon. Solid cloud cover here at the moment. Yeah I've seen that plenty. And it's partly cloudy here, temps jumping quickly up to 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 So it's already a bust eh? The sunny skies are a good sign. Most busts I've seen had full on cloud cover in the morning with it struggling to burn off by noon thus killing the instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Only one weenie used the B word (and is also under full cloud cover right now), but there are definitely some concerns with the PA convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some people up here are rightly concerned. No bust call from me but hi-res and satellite / radar trends aren't great in this area. Many people up here are 65-70 degrees still and staring at a wall of cloud debris and remnant MCS to the west. Hopefully it continues to weaken and we maximize instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Most people up here are rightly concerned. No bust call from me but hi-res and satellite / radar trends aren't great in this area. Many people up here are 65-70 degrees still and staring at a wall of cloud debris and remnant MCS to the west. Hopefully we all get what we want which is a nice severe outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 That MCS looks like its breaking down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 72/70 with a mix of sun and clouds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 HRRR takes the MCS over Upstate NY and then New England. Then we get stuff later which is currently near Pittsburgh Which screws us up for later when the main line goes South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I feel the concern for SNE but us down here are looking pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks like things shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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