IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 For several days now models have shown the potential for a significant severe threat on Tuesday. Despite the best forcing being a bit further North closer to the strong shortwave, things still look ripe for activity as far south as NYC. SPC has accordingly placed the area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms ...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO NERN STATES ONTUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTOTHE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE EXIT REGION OF A 60 TO 80 KT MID-LEVELJET IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLYAFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES THATCOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS SFC TEMPS WARM UP DURING THEDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THEFRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH AN MCS MOVING QUICKLY EWDACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEADOF THE FRONT...A MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATEINSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH FOCUSEDLARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ENABLETHUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO HAVE A WIND DAMAGETHREAT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Slight risk days always used to be pretty uninspiring, and that was before the advent of "enhanced risk" as an option. Hopefully thunderstorms FTL to make way for the geomagnetic storming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Hope this really comes to fruition. Could this become a PDS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So no one is talking about this on here. or people are just looking at what the NE thread is saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 MT HOLLY .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... **TUESDAY NEAR RECORD HEAT AND SEEMINGLY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SCTSVR STORMS** AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT: THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEADOF THE FRONT WILL AIDE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ANDINCREASING LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. BY THE AFTERNOON, CAPE VALUESOF 1500 - 2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE (NAM SHOWS EVEN ABOVE 2000 J/KG,BUT IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH ON SURFACE DEW POINTS SO THINKTHIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT WILL BE REALIZED). THERE IS CONSIDERABLEBULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER (AROUND 40KT), THOUGH FLOW IS ALMOSTENTIRELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO SHEAR IS ALMOST ENTIRELY SPEED SHEAR.THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT MIGHT LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER.FIRST, IF THE TREND FOR A FASTER COLD FRONT CONTINUES IT COULDBEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE PEAK HEATING LEADING TOSLIGHTLY LOWER INSTABILITY. SECOND...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETAS WELL AS THE BEST LIFT (ASIDE FROM MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THEFRONT) STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. IN FACT, BY MID DAY WE LOOKTO BE UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICHCOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALL THAT BEING SAID THOUGH,STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TOCONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL AS THE GRIDS. HAIL THREAT ISPOSSIBLE, BUT THE VERY ELEVATED MELTING LAYER IN THE PRE FRONTALENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT THAT THREAT. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS VERYMINIMAL GIVEN HARDLY ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 There will most definitly be a rather potent squall line crossing the area tomorrow afternoon into early evening. The NAM is spitting out 3000-4000 J/KG of SBCAPE with strong speed shear and directional shear. The forecasted lifted index is -8 valid 23z tomorrow. The main limiting factor for super cells appears to be mid-level lapse rates which have gradually become less impressive, but that won't have any bearing on the squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Parts of NE upgraded to ENH. The whole subforum under a slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Parts of NE upgraded to ENH. The whole subforum under a slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I think this is the best threat in a while. For the coast the water temp is near 70 which will limit the marine layer. I think the whole area sees a MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 We'll see what happens. I'm not too confident considering 99% of severe events fail around here even under seemingly favorable conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 European has greatest rain threat across Upstate NY and NE from there with just scattered to the south..Matter of fact if you are in PA and NJ area etc- Euro not impressed at all for those regions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Not really impressed by this severe threat, but in all means if mother nature wants to hammer us, she might as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's a very solid threat, this isn't a winter storm and model output isn't gonna look like much (in terms of amounts) but look at instability and forcing, as well as high resolution short term models. If you don't "feel" tomorrow's potential just based on prior events not working out, then you probably haven't looked at what's progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's a very solid threat, this isn't a winter storm and model output isn't gonna look like much (in terms of amounts) but look at instability and forcing, as well as high resolution short term models. If you don't "feel" tomorrow's potential just based on prior events not working out, then you probably haven't looked at what's progged. If your directly talking to me, I think the more impressive severe would be more to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's a very solid threat, this isn't a winter storm and model output isn't gonna look like much (in terms of amounts) but look at instability and forcing, as well as high resolution short term models. If you don't "feel" tomorrow's potential just based on prior events not working out, then you probably haven't looked at what's progged. Best forcing and lift is well north of the area...(at least my area anyway) Instability is decent and SWEAT is also decent... Minimal directional shear is also going to hurt.. Not saying there will not be storms but i think it will be more scattered in nature, not widespread across the PA/ NJ region and you will have to go WELL north for the greatest severe threat where it should be more concentrated.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 If your directly talking to me, I think the more impressive severe would be more to the north.I wasn't, just in general. The best forcing is indeed well north but the really good parameters overlap is not, we will see tomorrow I guess but even if the event isn't widespread we'll still likely see severe reports in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Part of the problem is that the leftover MCS in the morning really limits instability as the storms arrive too soon before the atmosphere has had sufficient time to recover. That doesn't appear to be a problem however from about the LHV south. I don't expect much in the way of discrete convection but I do think we see a solid line of storms around this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 4k NAM continues to be very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 4k NAM continues to be very impressive That looks insane lol. Let this happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 NAM has 95 degrees at EWR ahead of the line with dews in the low to mid 70's. You don't get more fuel than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 NAM has 95 degrees at EWR ahead of the line with dews in the low to mid 70's. You don't get more fuel than that. People downplaying this event are in for a surprise. I fully expect a large MCS barreling twords the area this time tomorrow. I doubt we hit severe criteria on the island but 40 mph gusts should be common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Would be nice to see a supercell roll thru the city. But ill take a line segment/bow echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'll take anything at this point, so far the severe weather season has been a dud. Even a decent t-storm would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Idk why anyone would be down on this threat. One of the better set ups in a while for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'll take anything at this point, so far the severe weather season has been a dud. Even a decent t-storm would do. We are in prime position to see numerous severe wind reports throughout the area. As it always is, some people will see strong storms and some people will see severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I think tomorrow is going to end up surprising a lot of people. It's not that often that we get such ridiculous CAPE into the region and a significant shortwave moving through Ontario to set things off. Probably not widespread severe but about as best as we can hope for in the northeast. I'm sure somewhere it will end up being quite meh and in some places there could be damaging winds and hail, all within the greater metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I think tomorrow is going to end up surprising a lot of people. It's not that often that we get such ridiculous CAPE into the region and a significant shortwave moving through Ontario to set things off. Probably not widespread severe but about as best as we can hope for in the northeast. I'm sure somewhere it will end up being quite meh and in some places there could be damaging winds and hail, all within the greater metro. Thinking we see an upgrade to ENH risk either at 2AM or 9AM with 30% wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Getting impressed by the soundings for tomorrow afternoon. Will be a conditional threat since the evolution of the crapvection in the OHV is still up in the air for the most part. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few large hail reports and the potential for flash flooding. PWATS are around 2" in some spots and wet micro-bursts may also be a possibility if we can get convection to develop in NE Pennsylvania and converge into a QLCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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