winterymix Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Surface based CAPE is over 3000 J/kg for most of our area. Precipitable water is 2 inches and more for the area. Right now, the favored area seems to be just west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 5% TOR pretty much same as where 1630 was... oh and also per 2000 SPC OTLK: MINOR CHANGES BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD/DC...BUT OVERALL SCENARIO DETAILED IN EARLIER FORECAST REMAINS ON-TRACK AND PREDOMINANT THREAT SHOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 SPC so stingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 SPC a lot more conservative this year it seems with the new outlook categories. We've had 30% days that look way less impressive than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 SPC so stingy Can't say I've seen them many times opt for a STW when they say they could upgrade later. They usually just go with the watch they'll stick with. Kind of interesting tactics from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 And we begin BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 412 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... THE SOUTH CENTRAL BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 412 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CROFTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BOWIE...CROFTON...SEVERN RIVER...PINEHURST...SILLERY BAY...GIBSON ISLAND...SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...LONDONTOWNE...ODENTON...ARNOLD... SEVERNA PARK...GREEN HAVEN...MILLERSVILLE...LAKE SHORE...BROOKLYN PARK...GLEN BURNIE...FERNDALE...PASADENA AND PAROLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 This is just.... wrong... 18z NAM sounding for KIAD at 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 About time for AAco. Gettin' that supercell look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 This is just.... wrong... 18z NAM sounding for KIAD at 00z: SKT_META__KIADMOTHEROFGOD00zSUNJune20th18zatKIAD.png I'm sorry, I'm bad at understanding soundings. I assume this is a good one for storm development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I'm sorry, I'm bad at understanding soundings. I assume this is a good one for storm development? High CAPE, decent shear, helicity strong. Very favorable for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 About time for AAco. Gettin' that supercell look Dammit, should have stayed in Pasadena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 So the storm in AACo gotta watch, once it interacts with the Severn river it might try to do something quick. There is a localised maxima of tornadoes in the history book in that part of the county with these kinds of setups (Storm motion NE, winds SE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Lots of thunder. Feels "cooler" out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 SPC a lot more conservative this year it seems with the new outlook categories. We've had 30% days that look way less impressive than today.It does seem to be having an impact everywhere IMO. Guess because it's an official category change now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 2000 mesoanalysis DCA 2000-2500 MLCAPE... LI's -6 to -7... ~3500 SBCAPE... 30-35 kts bulk shear... around 35kts effective shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 It does seem to be having an impact everywhere IMO. Guess because it's an official category change now. Indeed. And to be honest...if I were a lay person - enhanced sounds a lot more scary than moderate. The 18z NAM was pretty bonkers for us lol. Wonder how much we max potential here even with timing off. I'm impressed but I have been many times and been burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Re AA warned cell: DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 What is the boundary that is showing up on radar running from DC up to the NW to Frederick? Is that the boundary everyone was talking about or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 About time for AAco. Gettin' that supercell lookBeautiful structure. I'm looking at it from Kent Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yup, regretting leaving my moms house so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Small forward flank downdraft just hit on top of my home wx station, gust to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Two mesoscale areas of interest for tornado / flood potential this evening: 1.) I-270 corridor from Frederick to DC. There appears to be a NW -> SE oriented boundary that could enhance the lower levels and compensate for the limited instability across that region. Would not be surprised to see a quick spin up in that area especially if something discrete can fire just ahead of the main line. 2.) The Fauquier / Prince William County line. Another NW -> SE oriented boundary evident on the 0.5 degree Base Reflectivity scan and this one is in a much better environment where a storm could get rooted in the surface based instability. This supports LWX's earlier snippet of local upgrade to a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Tor sig on the TDWR for the cell crossing 95 just south of Fredericksburg. ETA: It's gone now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Pouring rain with Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Two mesoscale areas of interest for tornado / flood potential this evening: 1.) I-270 corridor from Frederick to DC. There appears to be a NW -> SE oriented boundary that could enhance the lower levels and compensate for the limited instability across that region. Would not be surprised to see a quick spin up in that area especially if something discrete can fire just ahead of the main line. Limited instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Iso stuff is either having trouble growing or sustaining. Probably our typical lapse rate problem... Main line looks good tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 First tornado warning? 853 WFUS51 KLWX 202111 TORLWX WVC027-031-202145- /O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0002.150620T2111Z-150620T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 511 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHEASTERN HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 545 PM EDT * AT 511 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOOREFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WARDENSVILLE...RIO...SHANKS...BEAN SETTLEMENT...INKERMAN... DELRAY...KIRBY...MCNEILL...AUGUSTA...OLD FIELDS AND FRENCHBURG. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. && LAT...LON 3938 7864 3907 7854 3906 7892 3916 7900 TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 244DEG 25KT 3913 7892 $$ -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Rotation actually looks pretty strong in that spinup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Limited instability? I share the same question. Instability is pretty solid right now area wide - a little less near the mason dixon line perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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