Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Latest HRRR crushes the area between DC and Baltimore with the worst part of a line around 0z. Looks like a bow echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 12z run of the LWX NMM. Very nice looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Bob Ryan @BobRyanCCM 3m3 minutes ago HRRR 2-4"/hr rain rate DC area near 8PM. Should "Bill" name continue as #TropicalRainstormBill? More than remnants https://twitter.com/BobRyanCCM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 12z run of the LWX NMM. Very nice looking. Looks like a monster "tail-end Charlie" down towards SE VA. If I have a chance I might have to have myself a little chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 17z SPC mesoanalysis shows 2000 SBCAPE at DCA, 2500 just south, 3000 EZF and south... 1500 MLCAPE at DCA, 2000 just south, 2500 near EZF... LI's -5 to -7... 18z mesoanalysis shows 2000 MLCAPE in DCA... LI's around -6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for LWX land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 No tornado watch for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 220 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MARYLAND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 No tornado watch for us. Maybe upgrade later after 20-21z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Maybe upgrade later after 20-21z? Kind of unusual for them to do that but I guess maybe. The watch probabilities are pretty marginal to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Eh, who knows. The main threat is linear maybe.. perhaps not worth the tor box. Also though the box doesn't even cover most of the 5% area. Possible they'll put up a red box east of the mtns later maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Eh, who knows. The main threat is linear maybe.. perhaps not worth the tor box. Also though the box doesn't even cover most of the 5% area. Possible they'll put up a red box east of the mtns later maybe. I admit that is what I am thinking... since tor risk really isn't supposed to ramp up with increasing shear until late afternoon/early evening, use STW for now, then issue TOR Watch after 20/21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Weak rotation on the storm in WV already BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV226 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...HARRISON COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN DODDRIDGE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...BARBOUR COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...* UNTIL 330 PM EDT* AT 225 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMCAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORMWAS LOCATED NEAR NUTTER FORT...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OFCLARKSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...CLARKSBURG...BUCKHANNON...GRAFTON...WESTON...PHILIPPI...AUDRA STATEPARK...BRIDGEPORT...SHINNSTON...STONEWOOD...NUTTER FORT...SALEM...LUMBERPORT...ANMOORE...ENTERPRISE...STONEWALL JACKSON...JACKSONMILL...WEST MILFORD...LOST CREEK...JANE LEW AND FLEMINGTON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...[snip]DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Roof repair (hopefully) complete. Ready for my sprinkles. That's probably being too pessimistic. The betting line is .15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I admit that is what I am thinking... since tor risk really isn't supposed to ramp up with increasing shear until late afternoon/early evening, use STW for now, then issue TOR Watch after 20/21z Not optimal and not super typical.. got me. This area could have prob gone longer without a watch not sure it's even that batch in WV that targets us per se.. more development further south. Lots of cu fields though something could go out ahead of it. Def got to wait till later for tor risk to ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 84/73 at home, leaving AA county soon to head home. 88 in Pasadena with full sun. Windy and humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Looks like a few storms starting to go up in NW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 91/75 at DCA. Maybe spreads are too big for tor risk.. Too much sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 it is disgustingly humid and hot outside. full sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 From the SPC Storm Report Page already in WV 1750 UNK SAND FORK GILMER WV 3892 8075 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. POWER OUT.(RLX) 1752 UNK 2 S LINN GILMER WV 3898 8072 TREE DOWN ON TRAILER (RLX) 1800 UNK 9 SSW WESTON LEWIS WV 3892 8053 POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN. POWER OUT(RLX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Into the sun just recently. 86/79. It is officially gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 RNK 18z SPEC sounding... don't see one for LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Moderate shower moving through Germantown, 88/77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 19z mesoanalysis shows 2000+ MLCAPE at DCA... LI's -6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC318 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015.SYNOPSIS...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREATONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...MOVINGTHROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OFTHE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AT TIMES AS DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITHA WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MULTIPLE HAZARD WEATHER SITUATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS REMNANTSOF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL APPROACH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASHFLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PEAK FROMLATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUESLINGERING OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RAINFALL.BREAK IN CLOUDS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND INSTBY ISINCREASING. SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE AS THESYSTEM APPROACHES...AND A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING.IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WHILE CURRENTLY A SEVERE WATCH HASBEEN ISSUED...THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN -ONE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...AND THE SECONDAS LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY BACK A BIT THIS EVENING. INCOLLABORATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL MONITOR FORPOTENTIAL TO CHANGE TO A TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IFNEEDED. ANY HAIL THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE EARLIER WITH GREATERINSTBY...THEN WBZ HEIGHTS REALLY RISE AS CIRCULATION CENTERAPPROACHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Another blue box south. Turn off the lights when the last of you leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Err just read above. Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Err just read above. Let's do this! Patience my young Jedi If there is a TOR WATCH, likely won't be issued for another hour or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 15z LWX ARW model for 23z. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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