Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yes, but the 5 percent tor was moved towards the i81 corridorYeah 5% zone a good bit bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yeah 5% zone a good bit bigger Yeah we are well inside of it now. Good sing that SPC indeed thinks there is a good risk today. Sun is out here now too. Time to bake and fuel up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 HRRR is a lot messier now - has cells moving through around 4pm and then still has the later line that goes through the DC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Things actually in some ways look better than modeled. Can see the RAP future forecasts on mesoanalysis is off in the negative way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Things actually in some ways look better than modeled. Can see the RAP future forecasts on mesoanalysis is off in the negative way. That RAP future forecast always seems screwy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The UV index # on my station just hit 10, which is actually the highest of the year to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Still clouds here. 81/75 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 That RAP future forecast always seems screwy to me. yeah it's not the best especially when there's a gradient in ingredients close by. but there appears to already be a pretty good instability axis bumping up against the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 yeah it's not the best especially when there's a gradient in ingredients close by. but there appears to already be a pretty good instability axis bumping up against the mtns. Always find it comical to look at the +0 map and the -0 map - today they are pretty different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 12z NAM sounding for KIAD at 00z tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Full sun. 88/72 This afternoon and evening could be special. Tropical system entering into this environment has great potential . And Ian seems on board. That means a lot to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 What site did you get that county and city overlay on? I don't see that option on the RAP.ucar.edu one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 What site did you get that county and city overlay on? I don't see that option on the RAP.ucar.edu one. It's the visible satellite from the intellicast site: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx?region=bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 lol @ the CAPE DCA sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 It's the visible satellite from intellicast: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx?region=bwi Thanks. 86/71 in Gaitersburg with a few peeks of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 DCA up to 89/71, should break 90+ easily. Current 85/71 here with full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 That RAP future forecast always seems screwy to me. It almost always forecasts surface temperatures to be significantly higher than they are, leading to overdone mixing. In this case, it is showing 95-100˚ readings across NC and S VA in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 It almost always forecasts surface temperatures to be significantly higher than they are, leading to overdone mixing. In this case, it is showing 95-100˚ readings across NC and S VA in a couple of hours. Thanks! Did not know that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Warm front looks to be running along Rt. 30 in PA . Most of Maryland seems to be in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Best NAM soundings locally seem to be in the DC/Balt corridor based on a quick look. BWI at 1z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Best NAM soundings locally seem to be in the DC/Balt corridor based on a quick look. BWI at 1z: snip 21.5 supercell parameter :lol: That is one heck of a sounding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I'm in Chesapeake/Norfolk for this one. I'll be on the southern end for according to hi-res models with some completely missing. 93/73 right now -- Been sunny all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Has anyone seen the 12z NAM for Tuesday? Looks like an EML gets in here w/ a shortwave to the NW and highs in the upper 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 21.5 supercell parameter :lol: That is one heck of a sounding... hour prior might be better.. 1z contaminated a bit. but it's still basically same, tho SCP is 10 lower heh. actually threat is "tor" not "mrgl tor" on 0z panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN WEST VIRGINIA...SRN PENNSYLVANIA...WRN/CNTRL MARYLAND...WRN/NRN VIRGINIA...AND THE WRN CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 201736Z - 201930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AT LEAST RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED/WEAK TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO 20-21Z. ONE OR MORE WATCHES PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS PROBABLY IS BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL. A BELT OF CYCLONIC/WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY NOSING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. AS THIS CONTINUES...A GRADUAL CORRESPONDING STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAME REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD. AS THIS FORCING...AND STRENGTHENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS...BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F/ ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. THIS SEEMS MOSTLY LIKELY CLOSER TO OR AFTER 20-21Z...AND WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AT LEAST RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED/BRIEF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY NEAR A WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ..KERR/GUYER.. 06/20/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 1st STW out from RLX... let the games begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yeah, SNE looks primed for a sig severe event if it plays out like that. Not sure about us. GFS has been hinting at big heat the last few runs now. Tor risk would definitely be well north based on the 12z NAM. We'd probably have some more isolated severe risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 So are we all in agreement that the watch for our area would be a tor watch? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 17z SPC mesoanalysis shows 2000 SBCAPE at DCA, 2500 just south, 3000 EZF and south... 1500 MLCAPE at DCA, 2000 just south, 2500 near EZF... LI's -5 to -7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Blacksburg put up an 18z balloon so perhaps lwx did too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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