yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Interesting... AFD mentions primary threat damaging winds (see above), but HWO says isolated tornadoes are the main threat HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC349 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-201000-CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTHISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-349 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THECHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES INCENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTNO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAYA FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAYMORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT SOUTHERN MARYLAND. PLEASEREFER TO FLOOD MESSAGE /FFALWX/ FOR MORE DETAILS.THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THEENTIRE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAINTHREATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 18z NAM soundings are filthy... there appears to be two "high points"... one at 00z and the other at 06z, esp at KIAD/KEZF/KDCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Both 18z NAM and 18z 4km NAM are pretty late with the storms. Gotta hope for an earlier arrival by a bit. Best sig tor params skirt jsut south and southeast of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 00z at KIAD: 06z at KIAD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 Both 18z NAM and 18z 4km NAM are pretty late with the storms. Gotta hope for an earlier arrival by a bit. Best sig tor params skirt jsut south and southeast of DC I guess we could use an earlier arrival by a few hrs... but seems like the mesoscale models are locking in on an evening into the overnight time period where rakage occurs ETA: Plus bulk shear is decent all night and there is a good amount of SBCAPE and MLCAPE to last us through most of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I guess we could use an earlier arrival by a few hrs... but seems like the mesoscale models are locking in on an evening into the overnight time period where rakage occurs ETA: Plus bulk shear is decent all night and there is a good amount of SBCAPE and MLCAPE to last us through most of the night One thing to consider though is that if the super high dewpoints that high risk pointed out do not materialize, the CAPE is going to go down potentially significantly. Not very typical we maintain CAPE levels of over 1500 late into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 If there's one thing we never fail at during summer, it's high dewpoints. I'm more worried about cloud cover/instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 One thing to consider though is that if the super high dewpoints that high risk pointed out do not materialize, the CAPE is going to go down potentially significantly. Not very typical we maintain CAPE levels of over 1500 late into the night. The 18z gfs has SBCAPE below 1000 by 11 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Do you have a link to that? And how is it at 8pm (00z)? Now I'm realizing that the gfs is just a good bit faster, so obviously CAPE drops with the onset of the storms. Here's 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 The 18z gfs has SBCAPE below 1000 by 11 pm Its near 800 J/KG... which is still good enough EDIT: I see the map above, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 18z LWX 4KM WRF-ARW says we get started early... this is 2pm tomorrow (18z)... only goes out to 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 NAM close enough to before to not change thoughts substantially but def don't want any slower if looking to max potential for tor etc. It does have vort piece coming thru around 21z which might spark some stuff off even with the main body holding back a bit. Based on today I don't think it will be impossible to get some stuff in here during the late afternoon or evening. Don't think huge destabilization is critical for a couple tor tho would probably limit the other svr threats. Does seem like a situation we could still produce at night too if the low climbs up the east edge of the apps with good low level shear and pretty abundant moisture. Prior to 10p would be more interesting most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 4k NAM has almost 5,000 CAPE in parts of the area on Sunday heh. 78 dew pt at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yes... there is a very tiny 30 circle in there... touches DC... you will prob have to zoom in to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 00z NAM at KIAD at 03z SUN (11pm SAT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Feel like I'd be more excited about that if it were 7pm instead of 11pm, but looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 00z NAM sounding for KDCA at 03z SUN (11pm SAT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 00z NAM sounding for KEZF at 03z SUN (11pm SAT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 NAM back to more impressive again -- still a little slow perhaps. Hi rez NAM fires off some isolated cells in the area by 6 or 7 before a front edge line congeals and moves through in the 9-11 range or so. Timing is still not ideal but not sure it's necessarily critical if the NAM is close to right. SREF more or less backs up. Would think a 5 tor somewhere in the DC to RIC zone seems a decent bet.. larger 15% wind around.. timing may hold back on higher wind odds. If it was sped up it could maybe be a 10 tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 4k has a few nice looking cells out ahead of the main line just over the border in southern/sw pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 4k has a few nice looking cells out ahead of the main line just over the border in southern/sw pa. Oh good, I'm not the only parent up way too early on a Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Mine's over 3 now and still gets up around 6-6:30 most days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Oh good, I'm not the only parent up way too early on a Saturday. 5:50am this morning! 06z NAM timing with the line is still 3z or beyond for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 5:50am this morning! 06z NAM timing with the line is still 3z or beyond for DC. Still hoping our normal signature of having activity a bit earlier than expected holds true. Though as Ian has mentioned instability does stick around past dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I'm actually looking forward to Bill. Severe...meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 5:50am this morning! 06z NAM timing with the line is still 3z or beyond for DC. Ahh kids, gotta love them. Things look meh up here for severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 HRRR at range - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Katie, that map should make you marginally happy. But it's the HRRR at range so maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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