weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I think we want to delay in order to maximize heating, but the caveat being we lose the best helicity in that case. So we sacrifice tornadoes for siggy severe. That's such a tough situation to wish for. That's like being asked if you would rather see Miley Cyrus or Taylor Swift naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Only saw 1 CONUS sig, long track tor on the latest CIPS analogs and it happened to be the July '99 Pittsfield-Barnstead-Strafford F2. 99...08...15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That's such a tough situation to wish for. That's like being asked if you would rather see Miley Cyrus or Taylor Swift naked I have my vote, and it wasn't that hard. Oh wait, about storms? I can be happy with a long-tracked significant severe supercell, but I think we're due for a good EF-2 in our CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I have my vote, and it wasn't that hard. Oh wait, about storms? I can be happy with a long-tracked significant severe supercell, but I think we're due for a good EF-2 in our CWA. If we can get steep lapse rates and the instability advertised with 50+ knots of effective bulk shear I would really be shocked if we didn't see an EF-2 or higher somewhere tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 If we can get steep lapse rates and the instability advertised with 50+ knots of effective bulk shear I would really be shocked if we didn't see an EF-2 or higher somewhere tomorrow I'd probably like to see winds stay backed longer to keep helicity high for EF3 stuff, but with so much shear in the lowest 1 km, an EF2 shouldn't be too hard to pull off even off the brief ones. I'm looking for the first TDS on GYX. I want to see what it will look like in our area. Though it probably won't be much different than BOX's or ALY's from the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Is Wiz going wild with ENH risk just issued on 1730 OTLK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 yoda stfu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ..THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...OH VALLEY THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. FARTHER WEST...OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ..NORTHEAST STATES MCS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN NH AND VT NWWD INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF AND UPSTREAM OF THE MCS AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NEWD ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC. IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SUGGESTING PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WARM FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Ripped off from CIPS, but I like the general outline of enhanced risk to be the 45% contour of the top 8 severe analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Where da fuq did that come from? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ..THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...OH VALLEY THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. FARTHER WEST...OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ..NORTHEAST STATES MCS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN NH AND VT NWWD INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF AND UPSTREAM OF THE MCS AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NEWD ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC. IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SUGGESTING PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WARM FRONT. That's a pretty great discussion, matches my thoughts exactly. A little conditional, but yet significant severe possible. Just feels like an enhanced kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Where da fuq did that come from? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 My true meaning being......it's about time. Obviously a cautious approach is warrented, but I just went from 5% to 30% lol. Also as a side: I love the different number of emojis that we have. We have Microsoft Lync at work and the emojis are so disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm really really amped up for this . Could be a day that goes down in infamy if things break right. It somewhat reminds me July 89 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 My true meaning being......it's about time. Obviously a cautious approach is warrented, but I just went from 5% to 30% lol. Also as a side: I love the different number of emojis that we have. We have Microsoft Lync at work and the emojis are so disappointing. Yeah I wasn't comfortable with the prior risk outlook, neither was BOX, so collaboration was great today. We all talked it out and agreed this was best. Just feels like an enhanced kind of day, not a run of the mill slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm really really amped up for this . Could be a day that goes down in infamy if things break right. It somewhat reminds me July 89 event My earliest weather memory. Had a buddy in Hamden that instinctively ran to the basement every time he heard thunder for years after that outbreak. Don't know how comparable tomorrow will be. Didn't '89 have a pretty classic EML? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yeah I wasn't comfortable with the prior risk outlook, neither was BOX, so collaboration was great today. We all talked it out and agreed this was best. Just feels like an enhanced kind of day, not a run of the mill slight. Right. Agreed. I was looking through the SPC probabalistic to categories tables......it seems like it is nearly impossible to get a High Risk anymore. Which is probably a good thing as with time when a High Risk day occurs, then the public will take it more seriously. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html But for us in New England, the new categories eliminates any chances we had of ever seeing a High Risk Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Right. Agreed. I was looking through the SPC probabalistic to categories tables......it seems like it is nearly impossible to get a High Risk anymore. Which is probably a good thing as with time when a High Risk day occurs, then the public will take it more seriously. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html But for us in New England, the new categories eliminates any chances we had of ever seeing a High Risk Day. Meh, there haven't been any threats thus far this year that have warranted one, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The Euro has very meager instability into New England. 1000-1500 J/KG at most. Leftover MCS really screws things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The Euro has very meager instability into New England. 1000-1500 J/KG at most. Leftover MCS really screws things up. I would take 1500 J/kg and run with it. Given the shear, that combo would be fine for storms. Obviously more CAPE would help ensure storms aren't torn apart by the shear, but I think we would get plenty of severe with 1500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The eastern half of central NH and into Maine are looking good imho S VT is decent, but I worry about morning clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Meh, there haven't been any threats thus far this year that have warranted one, IMO. Wasn't really my point. Was just saying that to qualify as a High Risk we either need a major tornado outbreak or a 60% chance of sig severe wind. Hail is an after thought.....can't ever qualify as a High Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I don't have to work tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I don't have to work tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :tomato: Outbreak cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wasn't really my point. Was just saying that to qualify as a High Risk we either need a major tornado outbreak or a 60% chance of sig severe wind. Hail is an after thought.....can't ever qualify as a High Risk. I don't really see how the new categories eliminate any chance SNE had at a high risk though in the future, as unlikely as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That's further north than seemed to be talked about lately? No way with the MCS in the morning that it extends that far north in the early afternoon storms. I was thinking they'd keep it more in the SNE/ENY and maybe SNH/SVT....not as far up as MPV-BML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Outbreak cancel Probably will be true lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That's further north than seemed to be talked about lately? No way with the MCS in the morning that it extends that far north in the early afternoon storms. I was thinking they'd keep it more in the SNE/ENY and maybe SNH/SVT....not as far up as MPV-BML. Yeah, tad farther north than I was thinking for the enhanced. I had it about LEB to IZG in NH, so it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.