OSUmetstud Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I think lift was a bigger concern in 2011 than this. That cap was strong and the shortwave was north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Waiting for a nocturnal mcs to roll through this way Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wonder if we get an upgrade to enhanced tonight the mod tomorrow night this looks great just hope things can come together if it still looks good tuesday morning I think I will be taking a half day at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Lead analog is May 31 1998is it really?? CIPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 This is great. Something to actually track with interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 This is all really going to come down to mesoscale features now but just looking at how things have been evolving within the model guidance the more and more confident I become in a Pike north event. When dealing or talking about the potential for higher end severe weather events, especially when talking about the possibility of tornadoes, one facet that we can't underestimate are height falls. We always talk cape, instability, lapse rates, timing, etc but height falls play a very crucial role. I was hoping with such a potent s/w, which models continue to agree on the strength, that it would really dig into the mid-level riding, however, this probably won't happen. In fact, what is being modeled now still only gets alright height falls barely making it to the MA Pike. As of now this is where I think the highest threat area is...this is where computer forecast models have been extremely consistent with a near perfect juxtaposition of extreme cape, very strong shear, and decent height falls. As for as tornado potential goes, that potential is certainly still on the table across the area I highlighted but it's difficult to go into more detail on that aspect as it's going to be more nowcast and mesoscale dependent. However, on the GFS we can note the strongest LLJ with the more S to SW component moves through early on...the NAM holds it a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I have a feeling that I'm going to be mad at work when super cells rip across portions of the area and I can't chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I have a feeling that I'm going to be mad at work when super cells rip across portions of the area and I can't chase. This is something else which will have to be ironed out Tuesday morning...storm mode. This is something that can be a real PITA to figure out. Come Tuesday morning one thing we really need to pay attention to are the llvl winds (direction) along with sfc wind direction. I think the potential for a potent event is on the "higher" side but it's just determining tornado threat/potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I hope you're prepared to chase, Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I hope you're prepared to chase, Wiz. I asked someone I work with if he could work for me Tuesday and I'll work for him Friday but it doesn't sound good. If he can then my friend is coming down from NH tomorrow night and we're going north Tuesday. If he can't work for me then it's just watch from my phoje and hope to God CT gets action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Is Oceanstwx on vacation since he's done with late nights? Surprised he hasn't posted about anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Could always call out if things still look great! I asked someone I work with if he could work for me Tuesday and I'll work for him Friday but it doesn't sound good. If he can then my friend is coming down from NH tomorrow night and we're going north Tuesday. If he can't work for me then it's just watch from my phoje and hope to God CT gets action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I asked someone I work with if he could work for me Tuesday and I'll work for him Friday but it doesn't sound good. If he can then my friend is coming down from NH tomorrow night and we're going north Tuesday. If he can't work for me then it's just watch from my phoje and hope to God CT gets action Tell them you got mauled by a feral cat, and that you're going to have to spend the day either catching it or heading to the hospital for rabies shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 0z NAM is insane with the directional shear component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 The 0z NAM is pretty concerning for a few reasons 1) As just mentioned it has a great degree of helicity in the lowest few km given directional shear and speed shear 2) With a sfc flow nearly more due south the helicity in the valleys will be further enhanced...with the NAM spitting out greater than 400 helicity...I can't imagine that being further enhanced...especially with instability parameters. I mean it's kind of ridiculous to see the NAM sort of beef things up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The 0z NAM is pretty concerning for a few reasons 1) As just mentioned it has a great degree of helicity in the lowest few km given directional shear and speed shear 2) With a sfc flow nearly more due south the helicity in the valleys will be further enhanced...with the NAM spitting out greater than 400 helicity...I can't imagine that being further enhanced...especially with instability parameters. I mean it's kind of ridiculous to see the NAM sort of beef things up a bit Things still look good for N NJ or too far South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 0z NAM is insane with the directional shear component at the expense of cape. no EML on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Things still look good for N NJ or too far South? This is actually a little weird. Checking some point-and-click soundings on the 0z NAM across N NJ I would have expected a bit stronger cap but I'm only seeing right around 1C which is not overly strong. The big issue is the strongest height falls are well to the north along with the best forcing but instability is extreme so with the cap not overly strong a few big cells may pop. I don't think the TOR threat is overly high down there, however, damaging winds and some pretty large hail would be possible (golf ball potential?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 at the expense of cape. no EML on this run it's definitely weaker with the EML plume which has some positives and negatives I suppose. Some positives meaning that could allow for action to develop as far south as CT and into SE NY and NJ b/c of weaker capping. As long though as lapse rates can at least be near 6.5 C/KM that's fine I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 This is actually a little weird. Checking some point-and-click soundings on the 0z NAM across N NJ I would have expected a bit stronger cap but I'm only seeing right around 1C which is not overly strong. The big issue is the strongest height falls are well to the north along with the best forcing but instability is extreme so with the cap not overly strong a few big cells may pop. I don't think the TOR threat is overly high down there, however, damaging winds and some pretty large hail would be possible (golf ball potential?) Obviously a long way off and just one model but this looks pretty nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So the D2 is out and there is barely a mention of New England at all. Really Broyles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 ct has good likley of big sever weather including ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 ct has good likley of big sever weather including ctLol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Obviously a long way off and just one model but this looks pretty nasty Are there any discrete cells, though? A lot of times these set-ups yield more of a line or congealed mess of convection. Storm mode will be important as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Also have to worry about the potential for a lot of AM junk associated with any dying MCS activity. The 6z NAM has rain most of the morning before an extremely unstable/highly sheared regime sets up in the afternoon. The NAM would focus the severe weather potential in the early evening while the GFS is much earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Also have to worry about the potential for a lot of AM junk associated with any dying MCS activity. The 6z NAM has rain most of the morning before an extremely unstable/highly sheared regime sets up in the afternoon. The NAM would focus the severe weather potential in the early evening while the GFS is much earlier. Tight window up here after the warm fropa. The NAM barely gets the warm front to extreme SW ME by 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Also have to worry about the potential for a lot of AM junk associated with any dying MCS activity. The 6z NAM has rain most of the morning before an extremely unstable/highly sheared regime sets up in the afternoon. The NAM would focus the severe weather potential in the early evening while the GFS is much earlier. Weenies standing at attention. As strong a signal as you're going to see in the SREF around here. But as you say, and is typical in New England, standard caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Weenies standing at attention. SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif As strong a signal as you're going to see in the SREF around here. But as you say, and is typical in New England, standard caveats apply. Wow that is impressive for most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Weenies standing at attention. SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif As strong a signal as you're going to see in the SREF around here. But as you say, and is typical in New England, standard caveats apply. Yeah it's a pretty impressive signal. The NAM has plenty of morning junk around buut what's interesting to me is how it has much more directional shear with the 6z run than previous runs did. More backed in the boundary layer and actually veering to NW with height. Earlier runs were more unidirectional. The key will be what happens with this derecho going through IA/MN this morning and how that winds up screwing things up around here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yeah it's a pretty impressive signal. The NAM has plenty of morning junk around buut what's interesting to me is how it has much more directional shear with the 6z run than previous runs did. More backed in the boundary layer and actually veering to NW with height. Earlier runs were more unidirectional. The key will be what happens with this derecho going through IA/MN this morning and how that winds up screwing things up around here tomorrow. For what it's worth, the SPC WRF develops an MCS but lifts it from MI into Ontario, really leaving much of New England in the clear. 0-1 km shear on the latest NAM now ripping 50 knots across central NH into ME. Siggy tornadoes a possibility, even on a duck fart type spin up with those shear profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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