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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

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It's bevone pretty overcast in the last 45 minutes or do, hay, do not much to see as I look overhead. Meanwile, the do has cone down a few ticks.

79.2/68

Yeah, it's been fairly overcast here in Westford also.  The sun does come out, bu only briefly.

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Albany didn't sound very encouraging in their last AFD:

 

WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS SO NOT
REACHING FULL INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FIRE
UP ACROSS REGION MAINLY TO WEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH TIME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND COLD FRONT
BEARS DOWN ON AREA AND PROVIDES FORCING/LIFT. LIGHTNING HAS
LIMITED WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THUS FAR. WIND FIELD ACROSS REGION IS VERY STRONG
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
AREA AND WARM ALOFT.

18Z SOUNDING PARAMETERS:
FREEZING LEVEL: 13.4 KFT
-20C: 25.2 KFT
WET BULB ZERO: 12.2 KFT
LCL: 1580 FT METERS
MUCAPE: 1580 J/KG
SFC- 6KM SHEAR: 46 KTS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.2 C/KM
500 MB: -7C
700 MB: 8C

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Mostly clear skies out there now, but lots of clouds racing up from the south and west.  Hopefully those dry up.

 

72.7/69

eek, nothing in S VT yet to impact our area.  Stuff going up west of Concord NH will go south of the Lakes Region. Seems there was some high cloud debris in S VT that has kept stuff from popping so far.  May have to wait for T storms further west in NYS.  

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Cells are really starting to rotate, nice one by Oneonta and another north of Monticello, NY.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if the one NW of Poughkeepsie becomes more dominant. On the fringe of the better mid level lapse rates and of course tracking towards the Connecticut Valley.

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That stuff in Jersey may prove to be the only show for Southern CT, which would hose any chance for a true discreet supercell. However... There are some signs of rotation on the north end of the line segment, so it could consolidate into something less like a typical SNE squall line, and also... Interesting things could happen when the NJ convection hits the seabreeze boundary now evident on radar (runs through Derby, Cheshire, etc).

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