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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

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Been tracking the ML Lapse rates all morning and they do have a nose of 7 inching toward CT but the chunk of the steep rates is sagging south to our west more than heading toward us..

 

Again it's that convection in PA that hurt us. If it hadn't percolated all day, the lapse rates might have been able to surge back north. Instead they've been pinned to the south.

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It's not quite the same setup, as there was strong to extreme instability within ML lapse rates >8 C/km. Still, it was late blooming over IA/IL and the storm mode stayed largely discrete. You'd prefer that over a big line of storms or a mess of convection blowing up too early in the game. Keep baking the atmosphere, added instability won't hurt.

 

 

To add to this, the steep mid level lapse rates certainly helped the setup yesterday as a good chunk of the warm sector had precip or clouds during the day...meant that ideal/maximum heating was not needed to realize some impressive instability values.  Not to mention the synoptics with having an unusually strong system for this time of year came through in the end.   

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With things just getting going to the west of New England why would the SPC wait so long to extend the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. It expires in 1 hour and 10 minutes.  Seems a bit irresponsible to wait so long before extending it or even issuing a tornado watch in its place.  Obviously the threat will not be over within an hour.

 

Some nice cells getting going west of me up here in Central NH 

 

Edit:  Never mind as I typed I read weatherwiz's post

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