SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 83/73, sun is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 It's days like today where I wish a balloon sounding can be done at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I learn more about weather from youze' guys than I did in pilot groundschool. My days of watching TWC are long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 What were MLL rates for 06/01/11? Not marginal. More like nearly dry adiabatic. It was a true EML event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 They were >7C/km when the show got started...it got started pretty early that day.Is that where they need to be in our area to get a sig. Long tracker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The morning stuff was on the leading edge of like 7.5-8C iirc on 6/1/11. Just incredible. Aftn was more like 7-7.5C. 7C seems to be the magic number around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Still plenty of stations reporting S winds...BDL SW though so winds are backed a bit locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Is that where they need to be in our area to get a sig. Long tracker? It is definitely preferred. You can sustain supercells longer in that environment. But with a very good low level shear profile and some good LL lapse rates, you can still get some tornadoes...that is what Chris is hitting on. A discrete cell that pops will want to rotate in this environment...it's just the lower ML lapse rate creates a greater risk of the cells shearing apart before they can get healthy enough to feed on the low level shear profiles and sustain themselves. So it's a waiting game right now...see if the ML lapse rates tick up...and of course, any discrete convection that fires we will follow to see how well they hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It is definitely preferred. You can sustain supercells longer in that environment. But with a very good low level shear profile and some good LL lapse rates, you can still get some tornadoes...that is what Chris is hitting on. A discrete cell that pops will want to rotate in this environment...it's just the lower ML lapse rate creates a greater risk of the cells shearing apart before they can get healthy enough to feed on the low level shear profiles and sustain themselves. So it's a waiting game right now...see if the ML lapse rates tick up...and of course, any discrete convection that fires we will follow to see how well they hold up. Well ALY should be in the air, and we're about to launch one ourselves. At least give us an idea of whether or not the RAP mesoanalysis is out to lunch or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Well ALY should be in the air, and we're about to launch one ourselves. At least give us an idea of whether or not the RAP mesoanalysis is out to lunch or not. It would be nice if OKX launched one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 BDL dew down to 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Is the threat going to be done in two hours as the Watch would suggest? 79.4/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Well ALY should be in the air, and we're about to launch one ourselves. At least give us an idea of whether or not the RAP mesoanalysis is out to lunch or not. They're doing a 16z and 18z launch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Northward-advancing boundary evident on satellite across E PA/NJ as previously mentioned. May become a focal point this afternoon, particularly across Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The Revere tornado had pretty marginal mid level lapse rates, but the shear, low LCLs, and rich low level moisture allowed for a brief spin up. So you can get them with the help of the low levels. This aftn is a bit of a different setup, so if there is one..it's probably not going to form the same way the Revere one did. Different environment and setup. The environment (as long as the instability cooperates) would be more favorable for something on the ground for more than 1 scan. But, need to instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Recall yesterday when the busts were called in Michigan and it ended up being a later show than modeled or forecast. You wonder if that's what's about to happen in New Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Is the threat going to be done in two hours as the Watch would suggest? 79.4/70 That will be extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 They're doing a 16z and 18z launch? Didn't realize it had wrapped up already. Lost in the stream of data. It's not a bad sounding, couple more hours of recovery and we've got something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 starting to get some action going in NE PA and south of SYR so a 4 PM development this way seems possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sun finally breaking through in earnest in Central CT after the dying line went north of here and clouded things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Didn't realize it had wrapped up already. Lost in the stream of data. It's not a bad sounding, couple more hours of recovery and we've got something there. Yeah it's on its way to being good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Recall yesterday when the busts were called in Michigan and it ended up being a later show than modeled or forecast. You wonder if that's what's about to happen in New EngIt's not quite the same setup, as there was strong to extreme instability within ML lapse rates >8 C/km. Still, it was late blooming over IA/IL and the storm mode stayed largely discrete. You'd prefer that over a big line of storms or a mess of convection blowing up too early in the game. Keep baking the atmosphere, added instability won't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yeah it's on its way to being good. Even 200-210 winds are going to have a lot of low level helicity. It's conditional, but tornado threat is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 BDL dew down to 68. Its 74 here in West Hartford, and 77 in neighboring Newington. Feels like hot pea soup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Pretty huge that dewpoints are in the low 70s across SNE...that is often a good way to offset some other imperfections. So often, we try and get severe in SNE with like mid to upper 60s dewpoints. That will be extended.[/quoteThanks. I might be a bit too far NW for the bedt dynamics. But hopefully can muster better than this morning. 79.4/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wiz or Mets?, is there any concern with the dews mixing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Dews aren't mixing out . Still lots of low- mid 70's aside from valleys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wiz or Mets?, is there any concern with the dews mixing out. I don't really see it. You got a nice dew max moving in just aloft, so it would not shock me for the dew to rise a bit at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wiz or Mets?, is there any concern with the dews mixing out. I suppose it's possible on a SW flow the dews could fall back a bit. HFD has been slowly rising as they've remained south but once BDL went SW it seems the dews came back a bit. Westfield I think went to SW too so we'll see if their dew comes back a bit. But they should climb again I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I don't really see it. You got a nice dew max moving in just aloft, so it would not shock me for the dew to rise a bit at BDL. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.