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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

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front is through CON now...lots of blue sky moving in. Best setup in awhile up here.

 

I mean that area between the warm front and OFB is potentially ripe for a tornado. LCLs will be lower thanks to the delay in heating. So as long as lapse rates don't suck, we should get some convection to fire in that environment.

 

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latest mesoanalysis is quite impressive.  We should be able to realize near maximum instability...probably not the 3000-3500 that was modeled once b/c the steeper lapse rates are off to the SW but 2000-3000 is possible.  helicity quite high...as long as that remains in place and if sfc winds back a bit it's going to be nasty later on.  Definitely thinking a strong tornado is in the cards somewhere...especially if we muster up discrete.  

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