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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

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50% 3+ and 10% 5+ up here. Eh...we'll see.

 

I mean STP is a combination of SBCAPE, SBLCL, 0-1 km SRH, and 0-6 km bulk wind difference.

 

Two of those parameters are probably overwhelming the signal. CAPE is probably a wash, if not a detriment today, LCLs are a negative on the STP today as well. Back of the envelope calculations and I get around a 1.25 value for SRH and 0-6 shear, while CAPE and LCL are < 1.

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We have the original warm front near the NH border (just north), and the OFB down around the Tri-State area. Anything between those two are really fair game for an isolated tornado threat.

 

And that should lift north slightly with time. I'm not sure we get things into the mountains, but it will come north.

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