Cyclone-68 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 As modeled would this be a high end severe weather threat with the EML component in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 SPC SREF already has a SIG TOR area outlined WOW THATS LIKE OVER MY HOUSE WICKED COOL.... Might have to call out sick if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 As modeled would this be a high end severe weather threat with the EML component in SNE? As modeled...as modeled this does have potential be a higher end severe weather event. the combination of potentially extreme instability and the look of the hodographs show potential for not only supercells but tornadic supercells. The potential would also exist for some fairly large hail and damaging winds. But this is just as modeled right now...the details will be ironed out over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wozers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wozers... 69 hrs out and for this region -> that's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Good stuff, wiz. I... Am interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 69 hrs out and for this region -> that's impressive. Very impressive. I still though wonder if this algorithm is a bit funky. I think a few years ago they altered the formula a bit and have too much emphasis on high shear so anytime you have even a small amount of cape and high shear it goes a little crazy with this parameter. Regardless though if models are showing potential for >2500-3000 cape and helicity > 300 you better have eyes open. Good stuff, wiz. I... Am interested. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 The 21z SPC SREF also has 30% probs of MLcape exceeding 2000 J/KG into central CT with 10% rest of CT into RI and MA. 10% chance of >3000 J/KG of MLcape into western CT, 80%+ probs of 0-6km shear exceeding 50 knots...that's pretty eye opening. If robust enough updrafts are able to develop and tap into >50 knots of 0-6km shear storms will go wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised if the 00z NAM made wiz faint, holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised if the 00z NAM made wiz faint, holy smokes. Very impressive indeed. In fact, the timing is nearly perfect too. Looks like this could be a later in the day show. The best height falls seem to occur between 18z and 0z Tuesday. Right now I would favor pretty much central New England as the main target area as this is where the strongest height falls are confined too. This is where the cap would be likely to break as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 18z GFS tracks the low like 300-400 miles north of the Canadian border, which is probably too far north for my area and most of SNE...right now I'd think areas like ALB and parts of NW Mass have a decent chance. Looks a tad north of 6/1/11 but similar set-up...the low gets down into the 990s at 72 hours which is pretty impressive for this time of year with 20C 850s from the remnant EML to the southwest...really interesting but wish everything could shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 18z GFS tracks the low like 300-400 miles north of the Canadian border, which is probably too far north for my area and most of SNE...right now I'd think areas like ALB and parts of NW Mass have a decent chance. Looks a tad north of 6/1/11 but similar set-up...the low gets down into the 990s at 72 hours which is pretty impressive for this time of year with 20C 850s from the remnant EML to the southwest...really interesting but wish everything could shift south. probably going to want to see the mid-level ridging flatten a bit, however, that could also mean slightly reduced shear values if the gradient between the above-average heights and below-average heights up north is lessened. However, even down this way there isn't a tremendous amount of cap strength which is different than 6/1/11 so we may be able to pop some action. The nose of the MLJ too punching into the region could be enough to spark off some activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Well the GFS rolling in and continues to be quite impressive. I seriously wonder if when the D3 comes out if the SPC goes with an enhanced risk. Incredibly rare to see that here but model guidance all day just continues to be quite impressive. Still not very confined with the southward extend of the potential, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christina311 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I have a feeling I'm going to be sad on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 This ones going to produce for Wiz. Liking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 This ones going to produce for Wiz. Liking it. The potential is certainly there but there are still a few questions at play. The big question is upstream convection and potential for cloud debris. However, if the EML plume remains in tact this should quickly allow for any debris to erode away. I don't have high confidence in much down this way but I'm very intrigued further north. The GFS though did seem to have a little bit more in the way of height falls across CT which would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The potential is certainly there but there are still a few questions at play. The big question is upstream convection and potential for cloud debris. However, if the EML plume remains in tact this should quickly allow for any debris to erode away. I don't have high confidence in much down this way but I'm very intrigued further north. The GFS though did seem to have a little bit more in the way of height falls across CT which would be good. Yeah, I've honestly barely looked at it because these events have a habit of either getting more impressive or less impressive in the days leading up. Seems like a good shot at an event lets hope it all falls together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Here's a tease sounding at ORH from the 00z NAM valid 21z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 They are calling for some heavy thunderstorms into the area. Given the quick influx of humidity into the area on Tuesday, we can pretty much count on northern New England getting slammed come Tuesday Afternoon. The influence of the marine layer into Southern New England, mainly into Eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island could be a big damper on storms in that area, otherwise looking really good for a widespread severe event come Tuesday midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 WOW... TUESDAY COULD BE A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 WOW... TUESDAY COULD BE A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. Wonder if the NWS will issue a PDS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wonder if the NWS will issue a PDS? Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The problem is that you need to work out details like total EML coverage and convective debris issues before really getting excited. The setup is good on paper. SREFS are pretty bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 In fact, I can't recall seeing that high probability from the sig TOR ingredients ever for our area. I don't quite recall what it was back in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 In fact, I can't recall seeing that high probability from the sig TOR ingredients ever for our area. I don't quite recall what it was back in 2011.When I see Will in this thread wetting undies, I'll know this is for real and possibly life threatening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 In fact, I can't recall seeing that high probability from the sig TOR ingredients ever for our area. I don't quite recall what it was back in 2011. Yeah the pieces are all there... Now we need them to come together. Can be tough to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 WOW... TUESDAY COULD BE A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. That was a great AFD from BOX there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 When I see Will in this thread wetting undies, I'll know this is for real and possibly life threatening Well you probably need to wait another day to be sure. Details like any debris or EML coverage just need more time to sort out. The wind fields regardless are impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 That was a great AFD from BOX there. Yeah actually pretty much laying out the issues we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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