powderfreak Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 What's the timing for the best chance for severe down in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks like Boston and northern suburbs are going to get storms in the next hour and then clear out and a second round later. More than we usually see so today is already a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 12z NAM bufkit for BDL is downright scary for later on with it's parameters. What's it spitting out, Wiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 What's it spitting out, Wiz? Impressive combo of shear/instability/helicity. shear of 31 m/s too is pretty hefty. Also, instability could be a tad underdone b/c it only has just over 6 C/KM lapse rates...unless they end up weakening they should be closer to 6.5-7 C/KM...which if thats the case I'm sure the capes would be closer to or slightly over 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Decent cell north of FIT, 55 dBZ near 20 kft.Meh here at work in Leominster A few fat raindrops and darkening skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 PA stuff falling apart fast. Winds will veer behind this batch, but VAD profiles show a lot of wind aloft still across NY. We might salvage this afternoon yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Impressive combo of shear/instability/helicity. shear of 31 m/s too is pretty hefty. Also, instability could be a tad underdone b/c it only has just over 6 C/KM lapse rates...unless they end up weakening they should be closer to 6.5-7 C/KM...which if thats the case I'm sure the capes would be closer to or slightly over 2000 That is pretty. How are LCLs looking today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The sun's trying to break through here now, steamy evaporation underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Do you have a fan on your station? Negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yeah, these types of (forecast) soundings are pretty crazy for southern New England. 4km NAM for BAF at 20z is about as good as I can remember seeing in a while. Strong instability, favorable wind shear and the thing that caught my eye the most was the number of significant severe analogs. While this may not scream major tornado threat (still non-zero and certainly elevated in comparison to climo), it certainly looks very favorable for severe hail/wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 PA stuff falling apart fast. Winds will veer behind this batch, but VAD profiles show a lot of wind aloft still across NY. We might salvage this afternoon yet. I'm curious to see if the winds wind up staying backed across SNE ahead of that pre-frontal trough thanks to the isallobaric response with that flow scooting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 That is pretty. How are LCLs looking today? On the higher side per mesoanalysis...around 1250m but they are much less off to the west. I don't though LCL's are a huge deal for tornadoes per se...especially in a highly favorable environment but I think they matter more for stronger tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Hopefully here at work off 495/3 in Lowell we get some good storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 looks like the Wegmans is currently getting a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm curious to see if the winds wind up staying backed across SNE ahead of that pre-frontal trough thanks to the isallobaric response with that flow scooting east. Model forecasts yesterday were to keep the helicity locally higher in SNE, while the extreme values scooted north with the warm front through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 This is the thing to watch this afternoon. It should start to lift back north, the question is how far/fast. But that is rich moisture and along that boundary should be a locally higher tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 This is the thing to watch this afternoon. It should start to lift back north, the question is how far/fast. But that is rich moisture and along that boundary should be a locally higher tornado threat. thea.png right across Kevin's fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm liking the trends for the afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 i love my lightning tracker...telling me to seek shelter immediately...i forgot how much i enjoyed thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 @NWSAlbany: A special #weather balloon launch is planned for the active weather ahead for later on today. Stay tuned for the latest updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Skies clearing up nicely--a lot of sun now. Temp finally rising--75/71. Breeze really picked up as clouds cleared also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I will be in a windowless room for the next 3 hours in meetings, so hopefully this will hold off until after 3. Still waiting to get the last of the junk through central CT - hopefully it's enough of a window to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Add a little rain under the Davis and you get a nice high DP. 71.7/71 steamy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Couple claps of distant thunder, 5 mins of heavy rain, and a puff of wind here at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wow 50% 3+ and 10% 5+ up here. Eh...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The morning stuff is meh like we said. It's the aftn stuff that bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The morning stuff is meh like we said. It's the aftn stuff that bears watching.You don't get back on board after jumping ship. Doesn't work that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The area between about DXR to CEF is the area that seems most at risk for a sig tor. Multiple products are showing several super cells in that general slot around 4:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The SREF tor graphics are kind of silly. I'd put more focus on surface observations, satellite (boundaries) and mesoanalysis. Still, there's no arguing that there is an isolated tornado threat across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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