eekuasepinniW Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Four nice lightning strikes, one ultra-close as the line moved over me and strengthened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 The 4 p.m. end time of the watch is a little odd, unless that leaves room for another watch later on. The latest HRRR shows vigorous convection ongoing across central/eastern Connecticut at 4 p.m. The 12z 4km NAM is even slower, with a line of supercells/semi-discrete thunderstorms moving into western portions of New England by 4-5 p.m. Very odd indeed...my thinking is along the same line as yours...leaves room for another watch, however, I think the TOR threat is earlier on, however, latest guidance keeps higher helicity around later and the hi-res developing a line of supercells around 4-5 is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The 4 p.m. end time of the watch is a little odd, unless that leaves room for another watch later on. The latest HRRR shows vigorous convection ongoing across central/eastern Connecticut at 4 p.m. The 12z 4km NAM is even slower, with a line of supercells/semi-discrete thunderstorms moving into western portions of New England by 4-5 p.m. Well there are options, cancel when this batch moves through and issue another later on or locally extend this watch for the afternoon stuff. I like the 4km NAM solution, problem is it thinks there is much less cloud cover than there actually is. So it might be a little too robust with the afternoon line. But it is also west of Lake Ontario right now, so there is time to recover. With mid level winds ripping at 50+ knots it may not take much time to recover what we've lost to clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Four nice lightning strikes, one ultra-close as the line moved over me and strengthened. LCI gusted to 22 knots. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yeah. This is intriguing. Was wondering why so many were throwing in the towel at 8am. Bringing up concerns is valid when it comes to SNE, severe, and weird MCS timing. Most ended by saying we will see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm interested in knowing if the SPC feels the TOR threat is mitigated or not. TOR probs in the STW are very low and not even mention of an isolated TOR. I could see a spinup, but winds seem more unidirectional to me suggesting damaging winds. 77.3/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Very odd indeed...my thinking is along the same line as yours...leaves room for another watch, however, I think the TOR threat is earlier on, however, latest guidance keeps higher helicity around later and the hi-res developing a line of supercells around 4-5 is interesting The HRRR forecast sounding for IJD at 5 p.m. seems to indicate at least a marginally supportive environment for an isolated tornado: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I bet we are close to 1.0" qpf already this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I could see a spinup, but winds seem more unidirectional to me suggesting damaging winds. A lot of obs around have due southerly sfc winds and with winds backing to SW aloft there is definitely some directional component in the lowest few km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Nice small line near Springfield? Heading ene? Stuff behind appears to be falling apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 A few rumbles and a dark sky. Looks like a lot of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks like a strong cell about to invade the Sebago lakes region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 A few rumbles and a dark sky. Looks like a lot of meh. I am shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 A few rumbles and a dark sky. Looks like a lot of meh. I am shocked lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Clouds breaking up big time in Ny state. Afternoon is very much game on. The folks that checked out are not allowed back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Rumbles, light rain, not a puff of wind. At least rumbles are to the west, so maybe it'll amount to more. 70.5/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Clouds breaking up big time in Ny state. Afternoon is very much game on. The folks that checked out are not allowed back in This bus doesn't make any stops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sticky as hell running the esplanade, but more importantly: sun's out, guns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Boundaries galore out there. You can see one on satellite north of PHL. Cloud debris probably masking the rest, but I bet there is a good one in NY, as well as in CT from the little line segment and across S NH too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 So, does this batch coming through now screw up lapse rates for later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Man these clouds are splitting faster than Kevin's final hairs on his head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Boundaries galore out there. You can see one on satellite north of PHL. Cloud debris probably masking the rest, but I bet there is a good one in NY, as well as in CT from the little line segment and across S NH too. yeah there are a crap ton and will probably provide a focus for something later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 So, does this batch coming through now screw up lapse rates for later on? Doesn't help, but doesn't hurt as much as a well organized MCS would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 yeah there are a crap ton and will probably provide a focus for something later on. That one in PA could be a real good focus for later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 That one in PA could be a real good focus for later on. especially considering the projected airmass destabilization in the general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Good news is RAP forecasts are lagging actual air mass recovery so far according to the SPC mesoanalysis page. We'll take incremental improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Good news is RAP forecasts are lagging actual air mass recovery so far according to the SPC mesoanalysis page. We'll take incremental improvements. I was just looking at 13z RAP soundings for BDL and it's way off with instability. Wonder if this will correct at all with the 14z or 15z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 And watch that storm or storms that is laying down the OFB in PA. It's along a rich moisture gradient, and as SNE continues to destabilize that might root into the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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