OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 mesoanalysis several hours out has an area of 8 supercell composite across eastern MA which is quite impressive I mean with the shear in place, there will be supercellular characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I was down in Frederick MD for a wedding last weekend and we banged pretty hard. I was hoping this would be at least a glimpse of what I saw down there: 42,000 tops and strobe light effect lighting for the wedding reception. Woah woah woah.......Let's keep this PG-13 at least. Here in Nashua I am on the line. I look south and there are blue skys. I look north and its all clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I mean with the shear in place, there will be supercellular characteristics. Hopefully we see more than supercell characteristics haha. Unfortunately doesn't seem like we will see the 2000-2500 MLcape that was modeled but 1500 J/KG with this shear should be sufficient enough. Just hoping we don't get crap from this crap now here and we erode clouds and pump those temps up...dews are good...mlvl lapse rates good...just need heating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 There was nothing worse than the faux-drought alarms. Quite a few peeks of sun now, warming things up a bit. 66.2/64 Yeah, We had a dry period but not drought conditions, Meanwhile the sky has opened up here +RN, 61°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sun's back... there's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Good to see clouds continuing to warm overall in PA as the shield progresses east. That coupled with good strong and hard June sun angle the clouds should break. Might be able to get clipped by that line but as long as there is room for clearing behind it that is no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sorry for the amateurish question but a supercell composite of eight was recently mentioned. How high does that particular scale go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Just remember many people who throw in the towel are doing it based on location. Obviously further N and W you are the cloudier and more negative your outlook is. I'm kinda keeping interest right now as it appears e ma might get some breaks looking at vis sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sorry for the amateurish question but a supercell composite of eight was recently mentioned. How high does that particular scale go? Not sure there is a set number but I've seen it as high as like 28 or 30 in the Plains in their major tornado outbreaks. Might have even seen like a 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I would watch this first batch about to enter western areas. Coming into a ripe environment where we've had sun all morning..Hi res stuff really blows these up and rips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Not that it matters much but its been sunny all morning here. 80/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The 12z 4k NAM quickly punts the crapvection northeast and really throws SCBAPE pretty far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 WE BANG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 That's crazy how different the 12km and 4km models look at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some of the mesos really destabilize things post debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 With a steep lapse rates environment and moisture rich llvl airmass it won't take much for instability to skyrocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I would watch this first batch about to enter western areas. Coming into a ripe environment where we've had sun all morning..Hi res stuff really blows these up and rips I agree. That didn't feel right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 You can see the meso low on rad in NE PA rocketing east with the leading edge of the MCS remnant... It's better off for the type of convection wanted/advertised if all this scoots out and we get back into some decent heating... This stuff coming in now is all getting in the way though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I agree. That didn't feel right... I think we are going to see some impressive wind gusts with this first line. Sometimes these first lines really bring the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 12z ALB sounding shows favorable wind fields and a nice looking hodograph. Winds remain locally backed across portions of the Capital District/Mohawk Valley, as we see a lot of times in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Down in Westerly RI, cloudy and cool air streaming in from the Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yeah. This is intriguing. Was wondering why so many were throwing in the towel at 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm interested in knowing if the SPC feels the TOR threat is mitigated or not. TOR probs in the STW are very low and not even mention of an isolated TOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks like the first band is the one to watch for me. A few hours of sun to heat up and destabilize. Looking like 1pm-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yeah. This is intriguing. Was wondering why so many were throwing in the towel at 8am. Mass hysteria. One post is all it takes to set off the cavalcade of despair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 There's def gonna be 2 batches..First one which looks like it might be for the pike region and the second one later is the one to watch for discrete cells and the higher end stuff. In between the sun comes out between about noon and 3:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I would watch this first batch about to enter western areas. Coming into a ripe environment where we've had sun all morning..Hi res stuff really blows these up and ripsSomeone should get popped by that ... I think the big show is later if we get some clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm interested in knowing if the SPC feels the TOR threat is mitigated or not. TOR probs in the STW are very low and not even mention of an isolated TOR. The 4 p.m. end time of the watch is a little odd, unless that leaves room for another watch later on. The latest HRRR shows vigorous convection ongoing across central/eastern Connecticut at 4 p.m. The 12z 4km NAM is even slower, with a line of supercells/semi-discrete thunderstorms moving into western portions of New England by 4-5 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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