weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 ML Lapse Rates are just under 6.0 C/KM at BDL for 18z... MLCAPE is near 1300 and SBCAPE is just over 1300 as well... just going to have to see how things are in the AM I guess as far as lapse rates go...been sort of back and forth with models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It's interesting that the models have a bit of a warm bubble near and just above 500mb that messes up the integrated 700-500mb lapse rates, but also have a decent cool pocket at 600mb that creates a local steep environment from 700-600. This is especially noticeable on the NAM in ern areas. While you want to see an overall steep look from 700-500...that pocket of steeper rates looks pretty good. That may help with updraft acceleration. The GFS had this too, but not as noticeable and overall some steeper lapse rates. Also, the models had pretty good helicity between the srfc and 700mb. Some very good turning and increase in speed. That did sort of weaken and change a bit above 700mb as winds got a little weaker and sometimes even backed near 500mb I saw. Now whether that is right or not is one thing, but part of me wonders what that does when winds weaken a bit or back with height. It might only cause more line segments and maybe fewer discrete stuff? I don't know..just something I did notice. I do like the 30+kts at 925. That's usually good if we can get some lower LCLs...which appear to be a bit high..but that won't be evaluated until tomorrow. I think iirc they were modeled too high in 6/1/11. Not that I am going there...just using that as an example. Overall a decent look tomorrow even if putrid lapse rates. Vectors somewhat orthogonal to the front, cells sort of sliding down from the NW...may take advantage of boundary layer 210 degree flow? Basically seems like at the least, some line segments with maybe a discrete cell or two with some wind damage and hail. If we can get near 7C/KM..could be a lot more fun and perhaps the increases chance of a tornado or two. As usual, we won't know much until we look around and analyze 12z RAOBs. My concern for a more higher end outbreak is the mid level lapse rates. Just don't know how much will squeak in here yet. SPC did note the NAM has a tendency to create spurious MAULs, probably due to latent heat processes in the model. This adds a bit to total CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Delayed but not denied, we got our MI tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 oh well I guess it's bed time. Nothing else to really do except look at things in the AM and go from there. We'll have a better understanding of the lapse rate situation along with sfc wind direction and such then. Plan on waking up around 6:00-6:25 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Been watching mesoanalysis though the past few hours and steeper lapse rates are continuing to advance east. in fact, lapse rates are steepening over New York as well. Unless latent heat release and other crap weakens the lapse rates that's a good sign at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 SPC WRF now whiffs New England on the MCS. Allows a big line to form in its wake. We bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 SPC WRF now whiffs New England on the MCS. Allows a big line to form in its wake. We bang. NYC screw job, several models have shown the line not developing there until southeast of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 This is the site I was talking about earlier. This is impressive across SW NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 GFS has really backed off on the instability tomorrow. 12z/18z GFS were laughable for this evening in the Great Lakes FWIW. Combination of CAPE and shear was well underforecast in many areas. Loop of dprog/dt 0-3 km EHI forecast for the 12z GFS, 18z GFS and 00z GFS all valid 00z Tuesday is below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Not quire in range yet but first look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks like a direct hit for Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks like a direct hit for Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Attempting to predict strong isolated winds as the line moves through. Ignore the winds over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 D1 has 5% tor for most of New England and 30% wind. Noteworthy that the surface pressures across all guidance are progged to actually be lower tomorrow over SNE than they were on 6/1/11, which should promote a fairly pronounced wind response in the low levels. This is mostly due to the fact that while the surface low isn't quite as strong as it was with the mentioned event, it is closer to the area this time around. Ultimately though, the lapse rates will decide if this is an episode worthy of remembrance in the region, but on paper this is certainly the most volatile setup the region has seen since that aforementioned event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yes, that is a 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Clouds FTL today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Ugh...lots of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The morning percolation won't cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sunny and tropical here. 64F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The day has dawned sunny ..One for the ages is about to unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Welcome to 2015 syndrome, SNE (looking at that MCS to the west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sun all the way back into Central PA...too good to be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Cloudy in N Central Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Just doesn't get any better than this..Not in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Pouring out. That remnant MCS seems further south than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Cloudy here. Will likely be a bust of a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wiz may want to change direction, Monson or Brimfield some pretty decent views west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Is it sunny or cloudy out right now? I rely on this site for these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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