HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm not even sure what else we can learn from model runs tonight to be honest. Now I think it's just a nowcasting situation and seeing how things looks in the morning and going from there Good luck, Wiz. I hope you get to see something. I'd rather it stay far from my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Good luck, Wiz. I hope you get to see something. I'd rather it stay far from my area I'm really pumped...I hope though if anything does happen it avoids populated areas. I'm just really kind of torn on where to go to setup and such. Really depends on how things are looking in the morning. I have a general area but I would like to pinpoint it further. Greenfield, MA right now I guess but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 There's your "Flint" tornado for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Greenfield's not a bad spot from a launch point. You can easily hop on 91 to go further north/south or rt 2 for E/W. If you want to get some good visuals, you can go to the Poet's Seat tower. Link will give you a sense of the vantage point. Best views are to the West/SW/NW. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22w6Y5-aVyQ Thanks for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I like the area from NW CT into Western Central Mass and S VT and NH. Seems to have the most favorable parameters where you have juxtaposition of better dynamics and instability. Significant Tor and supercell composites from the SREF like that area the as well but much of the area has impressive parameters by our standards. Hopefully it will be a fun day and if it gets crazy people stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Interesting that the 4KM NAM looks much more impressive than the 12KM version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We spoke at some length regarding the Michigan correlation ... The MCS today actually f things up for them. You can see that now with Tor warnings and large watch/enhanced region now S of where the MCS went passed, ...collocated where SRH is enhanced along the stagnating outlfow boundary. In other words, the correlation won't apply so well this go... Two different flavors of event. The MCS has since decayed and has no organization left. Just some residual showers that won't even make it across NYS. The correlation in terms of "impulse" is there... but there's not going to be any specifics this go. Michigan lighting up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Interesting that the 4KM NAM looks much more impressive than the 12KM version. Yeah it's been like that for a couple runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Can't tell for sure ust from looking at the height contours but it looks like the 0z NAM might be a bit stronger with height falls....especially down this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 4 km NAM is an absolute smoke show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 what's the link to these 4KM and 12KM simulated radar graphics? anything on free sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 what's the link to these 4KM and 12KM simulated radar graphics? anything on free sites You can use tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 So how bout that weather in Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 what's the link to these 4KM and 12KM simulated radar graphics? anything on free sites http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 You can tropicaltidbits.com http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Thank you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I think we will be setting up in Hubbardston or Greenfield tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Lots of tornado warnings coming from DTX tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm surprised Albany is in the enhanced risk area. I can't remember the last time that has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Gotta wonder if the D word is a possibility tomorrow? Especially if we are able to maintain 7-7.5 C/KM lapse rates and crank those dews into the lower 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I think we will be setting up in Hubbardston or Greenfield tomorrow. Hubby is pretty rural but a good spot for severe. Probably better visibility and highway access in Greeny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 The NAM bufkit for ORE is pretty solid looking, although it isn't too great with lapse rates...but over 300 helicity with over 1100 Cape and 33 m/s of shear...yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Hubby is pretty rural but a good spot for severe. Probably better visibility and highway access in Greeny. yeah Greenfield does allow us to virtually head in any direction we need. Going to be tough tomorrow b/c we have to keep safety a priority and there are a lot of locations that can be dangerous...especially with numerous trees around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It looks like it'll be cloudy most of the day tomorrow, but going to have to wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm so torn on what to do tomorrow. It's intriguing me to see models develop convection down this way. The 0z NAM is very impressive at BDL. I guess the TOR possibility could easily extend southward into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 GFS has really backed off on the instability tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 GFS has really backed off on the instability tomorrow. yeah it did but it has some hefty helicity numbers...point and click somewhere just north of BDL had just over 2000 SBcape at 18z with over 300 helicity...pretty impressive to see the GFS have that value. seems like it may not be as impressive with lapse rates judging by the soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wow the 4k nam would be fun. I like rt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 yeah it did but it has some hefty helicity numbers...point and click somewhere just north of BDL had just over 2000 SBcape at 18z with over 300 helicity...pretty impressive to see the GFS have that value. seems like it may not be as impressive with lapse rates judging by the soundings? ML Lapse Rates are just under 6.0 C/KM at BDL for 18z... MLCAPE is near 1300 and SBCAPE is just over 1300 as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 GFS has really backed off on the instability tomorrow. I'm not getting my hopes up for anything worthwhile tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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