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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Mostly a sne threat it seems

 

Why is NH being favored over SNE?

I was under the assumption this had the potential to produce sig severe in most of SNE away from coast. Now it's shifted to CNE

 

Dendrite stealing your severe now and your snow this winter? 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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For the Hartford area ~7 C/km. Quite good.

Holy crap...that's actually really good to have both models show this right now. Unfortunately though this will probably be more of a mesoscale type deal.

How are height falls across CT these runs? Can't be home for another hour and it kind of sucks looking at things from your phone. Height falls are one of my worries here b/c some previous runs virtually has nada for height falls here between like 21z and 0z.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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99% certain we will be going north...as far as setting up perhaps Greenfield-ish?  I'll give an assessment in the AM b/c it depends too on MCS and cloud junk and what not.  PErhaps even southern VT

 

Greenfield's not a bad spot from a launch point.  You can easily hop on 91 to go further north/south or rt 2 for E/W.   If you want to get some good visuals, you can go to the Poet's Seat tower.  Link will give you a sense of the vantage point.  Best views are to the West/SW/NW.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22w6Y5-aVyQ

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

We spoke at some length regarding the Michigan correlation ... 

 

The MCS today actually f things up for them.  You can see that now with Tor warnings and large watch/enhanced region now S of where the MCS went passed, ...collocated where SRH is enhanced along the stagnating outlfow boundary. 

In other words, the correlation won't apply so well this go... Two different flavors of event. The MCS has since decayed and has no organization left. Just some residual showers that won't even make it across NYS.   

 

The correlation in terms of "impulse" is there... but there's not going to be any specifics this go. 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

99% certain we will be going north...as far as setting up perhaps Greenfield-ish? I'll give an assessment in the AM b/c it depends too on MCS and cloud junk and what not. PErhaps even southern VT

Greenfield's not a bad spot from a launch point. You can easily hop on 91 to go further north/south or rt 2 for E/W. If you want to get some good visuals, you can go to the Poet's Seat tower. Link will give you a sense of the vantage point. Best views are to the West/SW/NW.

Poet's Seat is a great vantage point. Greenfield will give him the advantage of going S toward the Deerfield and Hadley plains (use Rt 5/10) or N to S. Vt.

Wiz, pm me if you end up in Greenfield.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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It's interesting that the models have a bit of a warm bubble near and just above 500mb that messes up the integrated 700-500mb lapse rates, but also have a decent cool pocket at 600mb that creates a local steep environment from 700-600. This is especially noticeable on the NAM in ern areas.  While you want to see an overall steep look from 700-500...that pocket of steeper rates looks pretty good. That may help with updraft acceleration. The GFS had this too, but not as noticeable and overall some steeper lapse rates. 

 

Also, the models had pretty good helicity between the srfc and 700mb. Some very good turning and increase in speed. That did sort of weaken and change a bit above 700mb as winds got a little weaker and sometimes even backed near 500mb I saw. Now whether that is right or not is one thing, but part of me wonders what that does when winds weaken a bit or back with height. It might only cause more line segments and maybe fewer discrete stuff? I don't know..just something I did notice. I do like the 30+kts at 925. That's usually good if we can get some lower LCLs...which appear to be a bit high..but that won't be evaluated until tomorrow. I think iirc they were modeled too high in 6/1/11. Not that I am going there...just using that as an example.  

 

Overall a decent look tomorrow even if putrid lapse rates. Vectors somewhat orthogonal to the front, cells sort of sliding down from the NW...may take advantage of boundary layer 210 degree flow?  Basically seems like at the least, some line segments with maybe a discrete cell or two with some wind damage and hail. If we can get near 7C/KM..could be a lot more fun and perhaps the increases chance of a tornado or two. As usual, we won't know much until we look around and analyze 12z RAOBs.  My concern for a more higher end outbreak is the mid level lapse rates. Just don't know how much will squeak in here yet.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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It's interesting that the models have a bit of a warm bubble near and just above 500mb that messes up the integrated 700-500mb lapse rates, but also have a decent cool pocket at 600mb that creates a local steep environment from 700-600. This is especially noticeable on the NAM in ern areas.  While you want to see an overall steep look from 700-500...that pocket of steeper rates looks pretty good. That may help with updraft acceleration. The GFS had this too, but not as noticeable and overall some steeper lapse rates. 

 

Also, the models had pretty good helicity between the srfc and 700mb. Some very good turning and increase in speed. That did sort of weaken and change a bit above 700mb as winds got a little weaker and sometimes even backed near 500mb I saw. Now whether that is right or not is one thing, but part of me wonders what that does when winds weaken a bit or back with height. It might only cause more line segments and maybe fewer discrete stuff? I don't know..just something I did notice. I do like the 30+kts at 925. That's usually good if we can get some lower LCLs...which appear to be a bit high..but that won't be evaluated until tomorrow. I think iirc they were modeled too high in 6/1/11. Not that I am going there...just using that as an example.  

 

Overall a decent look tomorrow even if putrid lapse rates. Vectors somewhat orthogonal to the front, cells sort of sliding down from the NW...may take advantage of boundary layer 210 degree flow?  Basically seems like at the least, some line segments with maybe a discrete cell or two with some wind damage and hail. If we can get near 7C/KM..could be a lot more fun and perhaps the increases chance of a tornado or two. As usual, we won't know much until we look around and analyze 12z RAOBs.  My concern for a more higher end outbreak is the mid level lapse rates. Just don't know how much will squeak in here yet.

 

Great post!

 

As far as the winds decreasing and perhaps veering around 500mb that is interesting.  Typically when you see that occur near the lower levels you think drier air mixing down and decreased speed/bulk shear.  At 500mb I would think this would probably reduce overall bulk shear and effective bulk shear but by how much?  

 

The warm bubble is the more interesting aspect b/c if the pocket of warmer air is too thick that could prevent updrafts from really taking off above 20K or so and utilizing all that shear aloft.  

 

Just going to have to look at 12z observed soundings.  

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