MJO812 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 NAM sim radar barely a shower or two. GFS wet. Bill Evans not buying the GFS. Rgem is also dry for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 12z GFS like 0.25"+ for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Rgem is also dry for our area. RGEM is the model to count on. I doubt we see much rain tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 CMC just spares most of the area now. It'll be a game time decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Heaviest rain on the euro stays south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Heaviest rain on the euro stays south of the area. If it stays south , we still get the pesky clouds. today is a top 25 day for summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 If it stays south , we still get the pesky clouds. today is a top 25 day for summer. Beautiful day. In my pool right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Happy 4th..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Heaviest rain on the euro stays south of the area. Dores it show rain at all for NY metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 18 z nam = washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 18 z nam = washoutRain is over by 18z on every model. Should salvage most of the day outside of E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 18 z nam = washout .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 The Nam does start to gradually clear out the area of clouds around 23-00z. The Gfs is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 I think most areas clear by early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 18z Gfs looks drier attm looking at soundings. Fireworks time looks to be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 ...according NWS forecast discussion..NAM and CMC both trended drier..in fact both are totally dry..watching this like a hawk..family bbq tmrw..looking forward to a awesome beach day on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 From Mt Holly NWS for the interior. Point click is a wash out - 0.25 to 0.5 of pure water note the temps - cool...disaster of a 4th .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLEDISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLYDRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THELAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. ATTHIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLEATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTERAMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILLHAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUTQUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2015 Author Share Posted July 3, 2015 The hope and so far trend has been to dry/clear it out from west to Neast between 3 and 6 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 oz NAM = nasty 4th of july .20-.50 of rain and clouds/cools temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 This would be the first time since 1940-1941 for NYC that a Christmas with a high above 60 degrees was followed by a July 4th high below 80 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Cloudy all day today, but clearing during the early evening. Looks to be fine by fireworks time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 This would be the first time since 1940-1941 for NYC that a Christmas with a high above 60 degrees was followed by a July 4th high below 80 degrees. It will make two years in a row. Luckily not a washout. Back edge of clouds in to PA and some breaks in SNJ and beach areas but more UK like than NY/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 It will make two years in a row. Luckily not a washout. Back edge of clouds in to PA and some breaks in SNJ and beach areas but more UK like than NY/NJ. It will be a washout soon. All that rain is pushing ENE and developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 It will be a washout soon. All that rain is pushing ENE and developing GFS and Nam has nothing for the area. Bulk of this rain looks to miss the City to the north. Today might not be bad afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 It will be a washout soon. All that rain is pushing ENE and developing A nextremely ugly day but I suspect the brunt of the heaviest is done by 2/3 and fireworks go off without issue. We have paid the piper for the stretch of great Jul 4ths the last 2 years and summer as well. The rest of the week looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 A nextremely ugly day but I suspect the brunt of the heaviest is done by 2/3 and fireworks go off without issue. We have paid the piper for the stretch of great Jul 4ths the last 2 years and summer as well. The rest of the week looks good. Thank god it isn't hot today. I remember 90+ on the 4th of July several years ago. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 Thank god it isn't hot today. I remember 90+ on the 4th of July several years ago. Brutal. Yeah for those who dont enjoy the warmth today and last year was pleasant i guess. For those of us who enjoy summer weather especially on the flagship day of summer Id welcome a 2002, 1966, 2010 every year. I balmy 71 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Yeah for those who dont enjoy the warmth today and last year was pleasant i guess. For those of us who enjoy summer weather especially on the flagship day of summer Id welcome a 2002, 1966, 2010 every year. I balmy 71 here. the greatest July 4th weather I've lived thru was in 1965...The high was 90 after a low of 65 with few clouds and low humidity...The worst was 1978 with light rain and temperatures around 60 all day...here in Florida it's Sunny and 87 already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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