IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 For several days models have taken the remnant low of Tropical Storm Bill across our region. The remnant low is forecasted to interact with a trough swinging through the lakes and potentially strengthen the system as it reaches the coast. While exact details are still being ironed it, it appears that an intense but narrow swath of very heavy rain will cross the area late Saturday night and end during the morning on Sunday. The general model consensus at this time is for 1-3" of rain areawide with isolated higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 The 12z UKMET has a period of rather gusty winds along the coast early Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Those are in Killometer, but assuming that's not gusts, it still looks like 20-30 mph sustained winds near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 The Euro is way North, fits right into the NAM/GFS/UKMET/RGEM compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 1-2" of rain on the Euro areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Rain is over by 7am-11am from west to east on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Look like this is really happening. Nice. When will the starting times be approximately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Look like this is really happening. Nice. When will the starting times be approximately? For Brooklyn, 1am to 7am is the bulk and over by 9am-10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 MT Holly has issued a flood watch for their entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 For Brooklyn, 1am to 7am is the bulk and over by 9am-10am. Thank you sir. And yeah looks like I'll be cabbing it to my destination instead of taking the train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 For Brooklyn, 1am to 7am is the bulk and over by 9am-10am. Also helps with the prospects for severe storms later in the day. We want Bill out of here as fast as possible if we want to see big storms. Things always seem to go against us severe thunderstorm-wise so I'm not holding my breathe. I can see clouds lingering and squashing any severe threat. Who knows maybe Bill's remnants produce some nice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Also helps with the prospects for severe storms later in the day. We want Bill out of here as fast as possible if we want to see big storms. Things always seem to go against us severe thunderstorm-wise so I'm not holding my breathe. I can see clouds lingering and squashing any severe threat. Who knows maybe Bill's remnants produce some nice storms. not sold on anything post Bill-often, it seems there's a big area of subsidence behind departing tropical systems...deep blue skies and humid are my memories of departing remnants around here. hope I'm wrong of course-would like to see a big boomer or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 18z NAM looks to be coming in at least 3-6 hours slower than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 If the 18z NAM is correct the heaviest rains wouldn't even begin until after sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 Upton has also issued a flood watch for Northeast NJ, Rockland, Westchester Counties, NYC and Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 According to the WPC, Bill has actually reintensified this afternoon (though negligibly). It certainly continues to look impressive on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 stronger = more latent heat flux = more ridging = further north track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 stronger = more latent heat flux = more ridging = further north track So the rains could miss us entirely to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 And make us hotter hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 So the rains could miss us entirely to the north?No, tick north from where it's currently proved to be the heaviest (C NJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 And make us hotter hopefullyWishcast elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 And make us hotter hopefully Uggggh. Today was in the low 80s here but the humidity made it absolutely atrocious. If the sun came out we would've hit low 90s with the same humidity so I guess it could've been worse. June here in Austin is making me redefine the concept of "summer" as I've always understood it, and it's nowhere near the worst yet. To me it seems a crap shoot as to where heavy rain from Bill sets up-the initial 500mb flow over NYC is ESE, but a nice pattern of storms looks to cross the NYC/NJ areas on the 0z NAM. Plenty of heat to the south to pump the ridge, whoever gets nailed should see some impressive rain amounts.If I was to guess I'd say the NYC-PHL corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 00z GFS obliterates the area. 2-4" of rain in under 12 hours. Lasts until mid day or so Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Onshore winds just kicked up here. Incomming. I have a good feeling about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 the euro shows significant rains for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 GGEM finally caught on. 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Euro is wet....rainy Muggies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 It might rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Mets busted today as its showering...cant even forecast a day in advance anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Looks like 12 - 15 hours away. Hopefully in tonight and out by late sunday morning, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.