JacobChgo19 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The question is, are we going to be seeing a MCS or anything in the morning? I am in Chicago.. That could hinder things for the day like it did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 12km NAM is very much different than the 4km. The 4km shows a significant MCS that transverses northern Illinois/Indiana and makes it all the way to western Ohio before dissipating. The HRRR shows a mess of junk convection ongoing across much of Iowa by 11 a.m. CDT. #2015ing. Edit: Note that the NAM has really struggled with convection, especially convective initiation in the short-term. It's not doing so well in that respect so far tonight either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 It's going to be a long night for the LAF crew if the timing is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I would be cool with the 12km NAM verifying, would lead to another stormy night locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Despite everyone dogging it yesterday, the 6/22/15 12z & 18z run of the 4 KM NAM actually handled yesterday evening and night's convection very well and was the only model to latch onto the idea of a string of supercells from Northern Missouri and Iowa up to Michigan despite the morning convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 9.76 inch lollipop right around clinton on the 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The question is, are we going to be seeing a MCS or anything in the morning? I am in Chicago.. That could hinder things for the day like it did yesterday. There's gonna be one ongoing to Chicago's southwest at 12z... and almost every NWS office in the current enhanced risk talked about it. Yet, most of them remain certain about severe potential. DMX seemed to be the most certain. If someone already posted DMX or ILX's afternoon AFD, tell me and I'll delete it. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR POP/WX TRENDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GFS SEEMS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THUS CONVECTION. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MCS TONIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AND LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TO THE MISSOURI BORDER. QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOMORROW. THIS IS CERTAINLY DEPENDENT ON THE MCS LOCATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE NAM/ECMWF AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS BUT DIFFER IN SOLUTIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SURGE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO SET UP BETWEEN INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 20 AND BE SLIGHTLY ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG IMPULSE PUNCHES INTO WESTERN IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE STATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. STRONG WAA...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE. THE SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASES TO AT LEAST 2500 J/KG BUT POSSIBLY RISING OVER 4500 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER. WEAK CAP IN PLACE...BUT AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND 0-1 KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 20-25 KNOTS WITH GOOD VEERING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO A DECENT TORNADIC POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TIE INTO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ENHANCE ANY LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE ALSO HIGHLY LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. HENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ILX .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL MAKE IT REMAINS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A WELL DEVELOPED MCS TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS MAINLY OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOMORROW BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HOLD BACK THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH THE REAL STRONG PUSH NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 JOULES/KG WILL LEAD TO A STRONG TO SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NAM-WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW EVENING EXHIBIT 30-40 KTS INFLOW (850 MB LOW LEVEL JET) AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 12,500 FT WHICH WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO BLOOMINGTON LINE WILL BE INCLUDED IN ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING OVER 3 INCHES WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Despite everyone dogging it yesterday, the 6/22/15 12z & 18z run of the 4 KM NAM actually handled yesterday evening and night's convection very well and was the only model to latch onto the idea of a string of supercells from Northern Missouri and Iowa up to Michigan despite the morning convection. They did...even the 4k 12z 21JUNE had the main show in northern IL being that lone sup that rolled through down to kankakee...truthfully i mostly only watched northern il action though on the model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I'm gonna sit and wait for tomorrows outlooks. It sure does look to be a weird day in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 That's one heck of a northern cut off in IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Basing off of the solution by the 00Z 12KM NAM it looks like we could be looking at another derecho... Across N IA/ S WI/ N IL and into E/W MI... NAM develops a pretty strong MCV it appears, convective enhanced low... with westerly/sw'ly H85 flow at ~50-60kts, and 45-55kts at H925 feeding into this starting around 06Z and increasing through the morning. Instability looks questionable though... But doubt that that will matter much with STRONG moisture loading taking place, to help bring that strong LLJ down to the surface. Also looks like the southern end of the MCS/ bow/ whatever it'll be could have some decent spin-up tornado potential as well, especially if it is semi-discrete/ transient supercell-type structures on the tail end, as it will be feeding off a reservoir of at least moderately strong instability juxtaposed to extreme 0-3/0-1KM SRH of 350-550m2/s2. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Big differences on precip swaths between the NAM and 4km NAM. I'd favor a southern solution due to the warm front getting hung up further south with continued/intermittent convection during the day keeping it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Basing off of the solution by the 00Z 12KM NAM it looks like we could be looking at another derecho... Across N IA/ S WI/ N IL and into E/W MI... NAM develops a pretty strong MCV it appears, convective enhanced low... with westerly/sw'ly H85 flow at ~50-60kts, and 45-55kts at H925 feeding into this starting around 06Z and increasing through the morning. Instability looks questionable though... But doubt that that will matter much with STRONG moisture loading taking place, to help bring that strong LLJ down to the surface. Also looks like the southern end of the MCS/ bow/ whatever it'll be could have some decent spin-up tornado potential as well, especially if it is semi-discrete/ transient supercell-type structures on the tail end, as it will be feeding off a reservoir of at least moderately strong instability juxtaposed to extreme 0-3/0-1KM SRH of 350-550m2/s2. Thoughts? Maybe another derecho... but not so much in the places you outlined... specifically north Indiana and Michigan. I see you're seeing the high reflectivity, but for the most part, I think the MCS is north of the warm front... where there's essentially no instability. Yes, I realize the warm fronts I drew don't match up. I think the MCS is being caused by the WAA... and will get pushed away from the instability. I'm thinking a possible derecho for Iowa/Illinois/west and central Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Maybe another derecho... but not so much in the places you outlined... specifically north Indiana and Michigan. I see you're seeing the high reflectivity, but for the most part, I think the MCS is north of the warm front... where there's essentially no instability. Zjrn9o9.gif QcAo9Ba.gif Yes, I realize the warm fronts I drew don't match up. I think the MCS is being caused by the WAA... and will get pushed away from the instability. I'm thinking a possible derecho for Iowa/Illinois/west and central Indiana Well, I mentioned that instability was likely an issue...But with the very impressive amount of flow at H7 (70-80kts),H85(50-60kts), and H925 (45-55kts) it just seems like given the amount of moisture loading at least some of those winds could get translated down to the surface... But guess I could be/probably will be wrong... we will see. Might not even matter since the NAM solution is a quite bit different (further north) than some other 00Z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 0z GFS south of 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I'm still pretty hesitant about surface based convection making it as far north as some of these models are showing. HRRR and even the 4km keep backbuilding/festering zombie vection going in Iowa for much of the day tomorrow. Unlike yesterday, we don't have a potent surface low and associated upper level system to really help draw everything further north. I'm guessing the effective warm front will hang out in southern Iowa most of the day tomorrow, and really won't get much of a chance to advance north before the main show kicks off late afternoon/early evening. I think the best shot for meaningful severe will stay south of a Des Moines to Pontiac IL line. My 2 cents anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 0z GFS south of 0z NAM. If it was north you probably could truly say wagons north for about the first time this summer with warm fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Well, I mentioned that instability was likely an issue...But with the very impressive amount of flow at H7 (70-80kts),H85(50-60kts), and H925 (45-55kts) it just seems like given the amount of moisture loading at least some of those winds could get translated down to the surface... But guess I could be/probably will be wrong... we will see. Might not even matter since the NAM solution is a quite bit different (further north) than some other 00Z guidance. True about the winds translating down... especially if there's convection. But I don't think it would be enough for severe-caliber winds. I just think back to cool season HSLC squalls. Even with the most extreme shear (60+ knots at 925mb, etc), you need a few hundred joules/kg of CAPE to get severe winds. We had 4 HSLC squalls between October 2013 and February 2014... I don't think we ever got more than 200 j/kg in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 As far what I expect though for the 06Z SWODY1... Probably a near continuation of the D2 1730Z due to uncertainties of how the possible morning MCS/ elevated convection will evolve. BUT due to the decent model agreement about a SVR MCS moving across the ENH risk area as well as the environment in place could see a possible upgrade to MDT (probably for the 1630Z update if concerns diminish about morning/early afternoon convection) across parts of E IA/W IL for damaging winds... Otherwise 10% hatched TOR for possible tornado threat early in the evening with any discrete supercell along the Warm Front IF there is not too much concern over morning convection, with the possibility of a strong tornado or two due to the impressive LLVL SHR and 0-3KM SRH ... As well as 30% hatched for large hail, with the possibility of an upgrade to 45% should concerns regarding convective evolution diminish, and the threat of more discrete convection prior to upscale growth becomes evident. But like has been mentioned, all this is dependent on the convective progression during the morning and early afternoon. In any event, even with persistent convection into the afternoon, the threat would likely just shift further south which could potentially compromise the potential for a higher-end threat due to it becoming increasingly displaced from mid-level support, but we will see in about 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Fwiw....rgem spatters the warm front then develops an MCS in ne iowa and a wing through northern LOT eventually as the mcs dives SE... 3+ inches for a good chunk of N IL except for kankakee ish into NW Indiana...about half the totals there Again...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I've been a lurker here for awhile (I own the WilmingtonWx site) and I figured this would make for a suitable first post. Looking at the 00Z CIPS Analogs, the 9th best match is the June 13th, 2013 Ohio Valley Derecho series. That was a wind driven High risk day from the SPC and although the chances that event is matched are slim, the CAMS are showing a very similar - albeit less intense for now - scenario playing out. First an MCS rides from Chicagoland south into Ohio laying out an OFB that triggers a squall line that sweeps further south. Interested to see how the Wednesday MCS affects Thursday's here at CMH. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&rundt=2015062400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Still non river flooding problems ongoing in places hit hard last night... FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 LA SALLE IL-WILL IL-KANKAKEE IL-LEE IL-KENDALL IL-GRUNDY IL- NEWTON IN-JASPER IN- 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN LA SALLE...SOUTHWESTERN WILL...KANKAKEE...LEE...SOUTHWESTERN KENDALL...GRUNDY...NORTHERN NEWTON AND CENTRAL JASPER COUNTIES... WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE VARIOUS FLOODED ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS...FROM WHICH WATER WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECEDE INTO WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 9.76 inch lollipop right around clinton on the 4k GFS with the lollipop in the same place...but roughly 6 inches less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 GFS with the lollipop in the same place...but roughly 6 inches less I think 2-5" is a more reasonable call. The 4km NAM is always way too IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I think 2-5" is a more reasonable call. The 4km NAM is always way too IMO. I agree totally. Spatter in a few lollipops and power outages and thursday morning isn't going to be pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I agree totally. Spatter in a few lollipops and power outages and thursday morning isn't going to be pretty That thought makes my inner property insurance adjuster die a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 That thought makes my inner property insurance adjuster die a little. Its a shame, but most likely a reality if things unfold with a train and a MCS in any part of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Still non river flooding problems ongoing in places hit hard last night... FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 LA SALLE IL-WILL IL-KANKAKEE IL-LEE IL-KENDALL IL-GRUNDY IL- NEWTON IN-JASPER IN- 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN LA SALLE...SOUTHWESTERN WILL...KANKAKEE...LEE...SOUTHWESTERN KENDALL...GRUNDY...NORTHERN NEWTON AND CENTRAL JASPER COUNTIES... WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE VARIOUS FLOODED ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS...FROM WHICH WATER WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECEDE INTO WEDNESDAY. Some of the worst flooding I've seen here in a loong time.Definitely don't need anymore rain. I'd imagine another 2 inches here would put the river flooding in record territory. Fields look like lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 NSSL WRF is still coming in and is only out to 10z, but they have it zoomed in on our region for tomorrow's setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I've been a lurker here for awhile (I own the WilmingtonWx site) and I figured this would make for a suitable first post. Looking at the 00Z CIPS Analogs, the 9th best match is the June 13th, 2013 Ohio Valley Derecho series. That was a wind driven High risk day from the SPC and although the chances that event is matched are slim, the CAMS are showing a very similar - albeit less intense for now - scenario playing out. First an MCS rides from Chicagoland south into Ohio laying out an OFB that triggers a squall line that sweeps further south. Interested to see how the Wednesday MCS affects Thursday's here at CMH. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&rundt=2015062400 Watching the simulated radar, I was thinking the same thing. I have a feeling SW OH is gonna get screwed over just like June 12/13 Ignore the rain... couldn't get a blank slate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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