Chicago WX Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 12z 4k and regular NAM give more heavy precip to areas that don't need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 12z 4k and regular NAM give more heavy precip to areas that don't need it it's too far north but yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 NAM be trollin' cromartie/ytterbium/respiratory_guy style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 free cromartie/ytterbium/respiratory guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 it's too far north but yeah Right...kinda taking into consideration the inevitable slight shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 QPF bomb on the GFS right over hardest hit areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 LOT OF GREATER CONCERN STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTER BEFORE CONGEALING INTO AN MCS THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME REALLY IMPRESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL PARAMETERS SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES AND STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO VEER INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. CORFIDI VECTOR MAGNITUDES DROP TO LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT WITH AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY STILL UPSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH IS A PRETTY CLASSIC SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE DICTATED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT ARENT WELL PREDICTED THIS FAR OUT...BUT OFTEN TIMES MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF ADVANCING WARM FRONTS IN CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS...SO SIDED WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDS. THE KANKAKEE...IROQUOIS...AND ILLINOIS RIVER BASINS ARE WATER LOGGED AND EXTREMELY FLOOD PRONE. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS OVER THESE BASINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES. WE ARE STILL 4 PERIODS OUT AND THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SO ITS TOO EARLY FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT AND EXPECT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT...THE POTENTIAL COULD ALSO EXIST FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AREA LOOKS TO BE SOUTHERN CWA...CLOSER TO WARM FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT (IF ANY) LIKELY TO BE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE EXPECT EVOLUTION TO A LINEAR MCS BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES EAST INTO ILLINOIS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA AND HAVE MAINTAIN POPS ACCORDINGLY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF PLACEMENT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH BUT THAT IS SOMETHING THAT CAN BE DEALT WITH LATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 with 12z guidance holding steady showing a large MCS into the region, I imagine we see a large watch with the afternoon update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 weenie.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised to see the severe threat expanded eastward some on future updates. There will likely be a sharp instability gradient and surface based instability may be questionable this far east but strengthening wind fields aloft would suggest at least a low end damaging wind threat in any well developed line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 After a few 2-5" strips of rain yesterday, updated June totals...and this is actually lowballing some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 After a few 2-5" strips of rain yesterday, updated June totals...and this is actually lowballing some areas. prcp_mpe_m2d_tot.png It certainly is over parts of Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sig changes on the new day 2 outlook with a pretty large enhanced risk area in IA/IL/IN and they mention a possible upgrade to moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Have been pondering chasing tomorrow. Target would probably around the OTM-GBG corridor. I have to be out at DKB for something at 8AM, so that would already be part of the trek and factored into the decision. However, given it looks like morning convection will be a significant issue once again and afternoon development may be quick to grow upscale into an MCS, I'm hesitant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sig changes on the new day 2 outlook with a pretty large enhanced risk area in IA/IL/IN and they mention a possible upgrade to moderate risk.Yep 30% large hatched area across the regions you mentioned Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 If we get a big honkin line, it could be easier than normal to knock down trees with how wet it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wednesday has piqued my interest, even. Big changes in d2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I have to re-certify for one of our more important analysis tomorrow, so I'll be stuck at work until at least 4 or 5pm. Timing is killing me this season. I wouldn't be shocked if outlook area gets bumped quite a bit to the south again tomorrow if morning MCS activity keeps the effective boundary south. Seems to happen quite often, so at this point if I were chasing I'd probably plan on heading to south-central, or southwest IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Impressive late evening severe MCS for Chicagoland on the ARW, not bad on the NMM either. Evening convection holds of until later and effective front really surges north on the strength of the LLJ. Obviously remnants will be an issues but the trend towards a later initiation helps. Needless to say this would be a widespread high-impact solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm liking this setup, GFS 12z helicities are almost maxed in IA. Decent setup for a couple of strong tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 RGEM with 3 to 4+ inches for most of N IL thru 12z thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 12Z 4K NAM at Des Moines, IA airport tomorrow at 23Z. Pure insanity. 0-1KM SHR at 30kts/SRH at 341m2/s2... and 0-3KM SHR 48kts/ SRH at 703m2/s2. One of the top SARS analogues is OKC on 5/3/99 FWIW. 4K NAM appears to be pretty over the top though with its LLVL wind fields compared to other guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 RGEM with 3 to 4+ inches for most of N IL thru 12z thursday dat inflow jet on the MCS over IKK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 12Z 4K NAM at Des Moines, IA airport tomorrow at 23Z. Pure insanity. 0-1KM SHR at 30kts/SRH at 341m2/s2... and 0-3KM SHR 48kts/ SRH at 703m2/s2. One of the top SARS analogues is OKC on 5/3/99 FWIW. 4K NAM appears to be pretty over the top though with its LLVL wind fields compared to other guidance... How? All of the other models are showing very strong low level shear near the warm front with at least 400 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH if not higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sig changes on the new day 2 outlook with a pretty large enhanced risk area in IA/IL/IN and they mention a possible upgrade to moderate risk. Just got back from work and am perusing this thread and some svr parameters. Rinse, wash, repeat. My cousin up Monon way is ready to cry uncle from a precip standpoint already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 How? All of the other models are showing very strong low level shear near the warm front with at least 400 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH if not higher. Im talking purely about the 0-1KM layer. The 4K NAM in this layer shows 300+ m2/s2 of 0-1KM SRH on numerous soundings and 30+ kts of 0-1KM SHR... Meanwhile the NAM and GFS show much less 0-1KM SRH closer to maybe 100m2/s2 maybe up to 200+ on a few soundings, and 0-1KM SHR about 10-15+kts lower, and on a couple soundings both models may be somewhat closer to the 4K NAM, but overall across the board, they aren't. BUT as far as the 0-3KM layer goes, i'd agree that they're all pretty close, and in good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 DVN and DTX soundings from 00z last night and the 00z NAM 0-1 km SRH valid at the same time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Snippet from latest thinking this afternoon from LOT PRECIP SHIELD APPEARS TO BE REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREATHRU WED MORNING...THEN AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS PIVOTS NORTHEAST WEDMIDDAY/AFTN...PRECIP WILL STEADILY RAMP UP. UNFORTUNATELY THEDYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM WED NGT ARE RAMPING UP AS WELL. SREF BULKSHEAR VALUES HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF EXCEEDING 40KT IN THE 0-6KMLAYER...FORTUNATELY THE ML-CAPE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN POSITIONED WESTOF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH LATEWED...WITH GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS PWAT NEARING 2" AND SETTING UPALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE THAT SEVERE STORMSARE FAVORABLE TO DEVELOP WED EVE...AND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THEFRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY BECOMINGORIENTED ALONG THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA LATE WED/EARLY THUR...ITAPPEARS FAVORABLE THAT SEVERE STORMS MAY TRANSITION INTO AHYDRO/FLOOD CONCERN. HAVE BEEN CONTEMPLATING JUST GOING WITH A FLASHFLOOD WATCH FOR WED NGT/EARLY THUR...AS IT WILL FEED ACROSS AREASTHAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL AND RECENT FLOODING. A COMPLEXOF STORMS WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WED NGT/THUR...WITH MOISTURESTEADILY ADVECTING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 00Z NAM sounding for KDTX valid at 00z (Im not sure why SHARPpy doesn't tag "NAM" on it, but its from the 00Z NAM) anyways...when you look at the soundings they aren't off by that much really.... Doesn't make much sense that the model output fields show nothing close to the amount of 0-1KM SRH such as in this initialized sounding and several others from around E MI, odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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