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June 20-21 and June 24-27 Heavy Rain/Severe Threats


Hoosier

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As Natester posted, the convection over here in Iowa is not only not weakening and clearing, it continues to backbuild.  There is even a warned cell passing just north of Cedar Rapids with large hail.  Here in the city I've only been teased with a couple very brief showers.  I have to think I may not see any sun today, which will certainly have an effect on later convection.  The current storms are being fed from the sw by inflow up and over the cool, stable air at the surface. There's plenty of heat over southern and western Iowa.

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Monster HP gonna smoke the QC in the next hour if it holds together.

 

Looks like it's starting to crap the bed.  Running into a less favorable environment.  

 

Boundary behind the eastern Iowa convection shows up pretty nicely on vis just north of I-80.  Strongest storms later this afternoon/evening are gonna track along and south of wherever that boundary ends up.  Should retreat northward a bit later on with the strength of the low-levels ahead of the cool front.

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IA tornado watch coming

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA...FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 202010Z - 202215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER EASTERN IOWA...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS A COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL IOWA. WITH INCREASING DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARING LIKELY TO OCCUR...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PRODUCING SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TO THE WEST OF THIS
CONVECTION...STRONG CAPPING AND STRONG INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED FOR A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE.
VEERED SURFACE FLOW IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVE
LESSENED THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES AROUND 250 M2/S2 INDICATED ON LATEST WSR-88D WIND
PROFILER AT DMX SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR STORM ROTATION AND A TORNADO THREAT IN SURFACE BASED STORMS.
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
IOWA...AND DAMAGING WINDS...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MATERIALIZES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED BY 21Z.

..COOK/GUYER.. 06/20/2015

 

post-4544-0-99911100-1434831625_thumb.gi

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