Natester Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I wonder if the next day 1 outlook will keep the enhanced risk or be downgraded to slight. So much backbuilding going on. Temps here are only in the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 We chatted SPC and asked if they're pulling the Chicago metro, or at least a portion of it, from the Slight Risk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 As Natester posted, the convection over here in Iowa is not only not weakening and clearing, it continues to backbuild. There is even a warned cell passing just north of Cedar Rapids with large hail. Here in the city I've only been teased with a couple very brief showers. I have to think I may not see any sun today, which will certainly have an effect on later convection. The current storms are being fed from the sw by inflow up and over the cool, stable air at the surface. There's plenty of heat over southern and western Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Wake low feature with the dissipating complex in S. WI/N. IL. 50-60mph winds with it in NW. IL recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Wake low feature with the dissipating complex in S. WI/N. IL. 50-60mph winds with it in NW. IL recently. That chunk is dying out quickly. Thought I might get some sprinkles from it, but it is looking unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Wake low feature with the dissipating complex in S. WI/N. IL. 50-60mph winds with it in NW. IL recently. you still thinking we get MCS'd later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 That chunk is dying out quickly. Thought I might get some sprinkles from it, but it is looking unlikely No rain, but gusty winds as the remnants passed through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Monster HP gonna smoke the QC in the next hour if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 you still thinking we get MCS'd later?Yea, we'll still get in on some action later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Winds really beginning to pick up here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Monster HP gonna smoke the QC in the next hour if it holds together. Looks like it's starting to crap the bed. Running into a less favorable environment. Boundary behind the eastern Iowa convection shows up pretty nicely on vis just north of I-80. Strongest storms later this afternoon/evening are gonna track along and south of wherever that boundary ends up. Should retreat northward a bit later on with the strength of the low-levels ahead of the cool front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 New warning in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Sure is nice to see those nice mid-level lapse rates flowing into Iowa from the Plains. Been awhile since we've seen that available for one of these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 New warning in Wisconsin. Pretty nice hail core on it as well Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 76/65 under filtered sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Lots of thunder here with an elevated storm about to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yea, we'll still get in on some action later. DebrisAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 IA tornado watch coming MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0310 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA...FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...ANDFAR WESTERN ILLINOISCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 202010Z - 202215ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER EASTERN IOWA...WITHADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS A COLD FRONT INCENTRAL IOWA. WITH INCREASING DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT APPEARING LIKELY TO OCCUR...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BEISSUED BY 21Z.DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS EASTERN IOWATHROUGHOUT THE DAY...PRODUCING SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLYSEVERE HAIL AND SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TO THE WEST OF THISCONVECTION...STRONG CAPPING AND STRONG INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED FOR ASTRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE.VEERED SURFACE FLOW IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVELESSENED THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT 0-3KM STORM RELATIVEHELICITY VALUES AROUND 250 M2/S2 INDICATED ON LATEST WSR-88D WINDPROFILER AT DMX SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEARFOR STORM ROTATION AND A TORNADO THREAT IN SURFACE BASED STORMS.LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANINCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT INIOWA...AND DAMAGING WINDS...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE ALLPOSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MATERIALIZES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BEISSUED BY 21Z...COOK/GUYER.. 06/20/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 79/70 at IKK. Winds have picked up and getting some sun. Hoping to get clipped by whatever passes through tonight, but expect the good stuff to pass west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 DebrisAB Pssh, you guys will be fine with these storms incoming. At least you'll do better than remnant non-convective showers like we have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 80/68...filtered sun Just got a text from the wife 20 miles east of galena....buckets of rain in the area... Holy crud at the temp/dp's across most of mizzu.... Meso analysis has pockets of 6k cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 More warnings in N IL...nice line setting up...satellite looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 83/71 at DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 More warnings in N IL...nice line setting up...satellite looks good Cells near galena appear to be heading ESE, so it would not surprise me if they made it to mby at some point in the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 leading edge getting annihilated as it encounters a more stable airmass to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Storms are strengthening west of Cedar Rapids now. It's not 90+/70+ like southern Iowa, but we did get some sun with a warm surge once the earlier convection finally pulled away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 leading edge getting annihilated as it encounters a more stable airmass to the east 81/66 over by KLOT. Do I have a shot at some severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Partly cloudy....90/76 at Ottumwa ahead of that developing line of svr storms. Whoosh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Some better pwats being dragged in now from the NW in N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 81/66 over by KLOT. Do I have a shot at some severe? unless by chi you mean macomb, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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