afterimage Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 2.5" in about 45 minutes here....unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 355 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO... EASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO... WESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO... NORTHWESTERN SCIOTO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT. * AT 352 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR CYNTHIANA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WAVERLY... IN ADDITION...SINKING SPRING...PIKE LAKE...KINCAID SPRINGS...POPLAR GROVE...BUCHANAN...IDAHO...ELM GROVE AND LADD ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 I've got some catching up to do. Little over a quarter on the tippy bucket. Dang, even LAF is beating you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Dang, even LAF is beating you. I've noticed my tippy bucket has been low balling things lately. I'll have to check the actual gauge when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I hope this shifts a bit north, we have a bit of room to take on water here in SEMI, south of here can't take anymore rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Epic disaster possibly unfolding for Kankakee County as heavy rain now developing/re-developing across almost the entire area. Just can't catch a break. Meanwhile, hardly a drop of rain falling at my place in LAF for the past hour or so. Models and forecasters kinda busted on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 IWX HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM COUPLED WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THOSE AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN RECORD SETTING RAINFALL SO FAR IN THE MONTH OF JUNE AND THEREFORE...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE HIGH. DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR KIND TO NORTHERN TEXAS WILL DEEPEN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS LOW (~9MB/12HR) WILL LEAD TO MAXIMIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR FAR SE CWA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN OHIO ON SATURDAY AND SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE...WHEREVER THE PIVOT POINT SETS UP NW OF THE LOW TRACK...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS LIKELY. INCREASED QPF SE OF US24 WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS ALREADY FALLING AND THE PIVOT POINT IS LIKELY TO SET UP. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS INDICATING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OR MORE WHICH CERTAINLY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WOULD INDICATE THAT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35MPH EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET SOILS IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY AN ISOLATED REPORT OF AN UPROOTED TREE IN THAT AREA TOMORROW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 Epic disaster possibly unfolding for Kankakee County as heavy rain now developing/re-developing across almost the entire area. Just can't catch a break. Meanwhile, hardly a drop of rain falling at my place in LAF for the past hour or so. Models and forecasters kinda busted on this one. 18z NAM really cranks the def zone later, but mainly JUST east of here. System is still in developing stages so will have to watch closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Rain has started here, hopefully I don't need a boat by the time this over. Have had nearly 10" of rain so far this June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 IWX Well, that doesn't sound good. There's still water in the fields from the rain events earlier this month. This could potentially be disastrous in some places in NW OH, depending on where the low pivots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 BUF with some interesting commentary about the anomalous nature of this closed low: AN INNOCUOUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IN THE VCNTY OF THEDAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-WEST TODAYAND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL ESSENTIALLYENERGIZE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILLORGANIZED INTO A CONSOLIDATED SFC LOW OVER OHIO BY DAYBREAKSATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEEPEN TO NEARLY 995MB...WHICH ISRATHER UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...THIS FEATURE HAS ANOCCURRENCE INTERVAL OF ABOUT FIVE TO TEN YEARS (FOR LATE JUNE). ASSUCH... ANY MATCHING ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE CIPS ANALOGS DO NOTEXIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 18z NAM really cranks the def zone later, but mainly JUST east of here. System is still in developing stages so will have to watch closely. At this point, what can go wrong will go wrong, so I totally expect it to sit over them and just pour. I'm at a loss right now...just totally disgusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 At this point, what can go wrong will go wrong, so I totally expect it to sit over them and just pour. I'm at a loss right now...just totally disgusted. I know that feeling man, where the rains just keep coming and there's nothing that can be done. Really a drain. 99% of the time "it's just the weather" and it doesn't really affect us or people close to us in as meaningful of a way, but then there's the times that it does. Perhaps your move back to IKK is coming at a good time. Hang in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 BUF with some interesting commentary about the anomalous nature of this closed low: AN INNOCUOUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IN THE VCNTY OF THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-WEST TODAY AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL ESSENTIALLY ENERGIZE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ORGANIZED INTO A CONSOLIDATED SFC LOW OVER OHIO BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEEPEN TO NEARLY 995MB...WHICH IS RATHER UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...THIS FEATURE HAS AN OCCURRENCE INTERVAL OF ABOUT FIVE TO TEN YEARS (FOR LATE JUNE). AS SUCH... ANY MATCHING ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE CIPS ANALOGS DO NOT EXIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLE mentions the oddity of this event as well: A MAJOR (ALMOST SAID WINTER BECAUSE THIS STORM HAS WINTER STORM CHARACTERISTICS) STORM IS POISED TO HIT THE OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 DTX's thoughts PSEUDO TROPICAL MOISTURE (700 MB DEW PTS OF 6 C...850 MB DEW PTS OF14 C) OVER MISSOURI ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIOVALLEY...AS STRONG UPPER WAVE RESIDES OVER THE MIDWEST. A SECONDSTRONG UPPER WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROMMINNESOTA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN PHASED SOLUTION/DEEPENING LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.THE QUESTION IS HOW STRONG (00/12Z EURO INDICATING 14-15 MB DROP IN24 HRS FROM 18Z FRIDAY-18Z SATURDAY)...AND WHICH LAYER WILL BE MOSTACTIVE...AS WE WILL BE RELYING ON THE STRONG 700 MB FGEN/MID LEVELDEFORMATION CLIPPING EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS NOTEDBEFORE..PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT 700 MB LEVEL...WITH AT LEAST 2 CADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. 5 C MOISTURE AXIS WILL NOT BE TOOFAR AWAY EITHER...AND WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AT THATLEVEL....SEEMS REASONABLE A LONGER DURATION HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.THE SAVING GRACE COULD BE IF THE 850 MB ZONE IS MORE ACTIVE...ANDLOWER BASED INSTABILITY/CONVECTION MAINTAINS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTHAND EAST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ALONG THE LINES OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS.CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ENOUGH IN THESE SOLUTIONS VERBATIM...SEE12Z REGIONAL GEM/EURO. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH FORECASTED 1-2 INCHES OFRAINFALL ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...(WITH THE LACK OFINSTABILITY/CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTMICHIGAN AND PW VALUES IN THE 1 TO 1.35 INCH RANGE...FLASH FLOODINGDOES SEEM LIKE A BIG CONCERN WITH 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE AT OR ABOVE 2INCHES FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS LOOKS TO BE ASLOWER RESPONSE/ADVISORY TYPE FLOODING...AND WILL EVEN FORGO FLOODWATCH...AS EVEN THE 12Z EURO SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVEFEEDBACK...AS THE FORECASTED 4 INCH QPF BULLSEYES JUST SOUTH OF WESTLAFAYETTE INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON (18-00Z). LOOKS OVERDONE AND SEEMSTO CARRY THROUGH INTO TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLYOVER DEEPENED SOLUTION. I do disagree with the Euro mention though, ground truthing says the Euro is closer to being correct than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 CLE mentions the oddity of this event as well: A MAJOR (ALMOST SAID WINTER BECAUSE THIS STORM HAS WINTER STORM CHARACTERISTICS) STORM IS POISED TO HIT THE OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Kind of like a weaker/warmer version of Dec 15-16, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 Check out the storms moving west/southwest in Minnesota and Wisconsin. There's something you don't see often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Check out the storms moving west/southwest in Minnesota and Wisconsin. There's something you don't see often. That's very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Check out the storms moving west/southwest in Minnesota and Wisconsin. There's something you don't see often. Only 20% pops in the grids and just had a monster cell hit on the north end of the TC metro. Black as night for 15min and monsoon rain, then pure sun. Came out of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Just under 0.4" here. Looking like somewhat of a bust here locally. Areas north of here really could have used a bust though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 Just under 0.4" here. Looking like somewhat of a bust here locally. Areas north of here really could have used a bust though. Heavier amounts north and south to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Wow the GFS drops around 4-5" here tomorrow, that would be catastrophic and it has support of the Euro/4km NAM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Just under 0.4" here. Looking like somewhat of a bust here locally. Areas north of here really could have used a bust though. I go out with my last event in the LAF being a bust. Seems about right. Back up north tomorrow to fight off this new round of heavy rainfall/basement flooding. And then prepare for more next week. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I go out with my last event in the LAF being a bust. Seems about right. Back up north tomorrow to fight off this new round of heavy rainfall/basement flooding. And then prepare for more next week. Good times. Best of luck...sending good vibes to you and your family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Wow the GFS drops around 4-5" here tomorrow, that would be catastrophic and it has support of the Euro/4km NAM too. I just noticed that...would make June a historic month precipitation-wise at DTW. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Best of luck...sending good vibes to you and your family Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Am probably going to head down to the lake tomorrow. Calling for 9-12 footers with Gale Warnings up. I can't remember seeing 12 foot waves in the western basin Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I go out with my last event in the LAF being a bust. Seems about right. Back up north tomorrow to fight off this new round of heavy rainfall/basement flooding. And then prepare for more next week. Good times. Good luck Tim. Sounds like I might be back to heading up another sandbagging operation for the county. At least we have 3,000 or so left from last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Absolutely torrential rain with the cell passing over me now ne of Indpls. No wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 708 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0705 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S CASTLETON 39.88N 86.05W 06/26/2015 M0.76 INCH MARION IN CO-OP OBSERVER RAIN FELL IN ABOUT 25 MINUTES. STANDING WATER ON THE ROADS. SOME WATER SLIGHTLY BACKING UP OUT OF DRAINAGE SEWERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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