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June 20-21 and June 24-27 Heavy Rain/Severe Threats


Hoosier

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  

355 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...  

EASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...  

WESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...  

NORTHWESTERN SCIOTO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...  

 

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.  

 

* AT 352 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF  

PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR CYNTHIANA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35  

MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

WAVERLY...  

 

IN ADDITION...SINKING SPRING...PIKE LAKE...KINCAID SPRINGS...POPLAR  

GROVE...BUCHANAN...IDAHO...ELM GROVE AND LADD ARE NEAR THE PATH OF  

THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.  

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Epic disaster possibly unfolding for Kankakee County as heavy rain now developing/re-developing across almost the entire area. Just can't catch a break.

 

Meanwhile, hardly a drop of rain falling at my place in LAF for the past hour or so. Models and forecasters kinda busted on this one.

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IWX

 


HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM  PERIOD AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS  THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM COUPLED WITH  PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR  SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST  AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THOSE AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN RECORD SETTING  RAINFALL SO FAR IN THE MONTH OF JUNE AND THEREFORE...FLOODING  CONCERNS ARE HIGH.    DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR KIND TO NORTHERN   TEXAS WILL DEEPEN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND TRACK   THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE RAPID DEEPENING OF   THIS LOW (~9MB/12HR) WILL LEAD TO MAXIMIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR   FAR SE CWA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW. IN ADDITION TO THE   STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT   OFF OVER NORTHERN OHIO ON SATURDAY AND SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESSION   OF THE LOW CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE...WHEREVER THE PIVOT POINT SETS   UP NW OF THE LOW TRACK...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS LIKELY. INCREASED   QPF SE OF US24 WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS ALREADY FALLING AND THE PIVOT   POINT IS LIKELY TO SET UP. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT MOST OF THE   HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS INDICATING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS   OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OR MORE WHICH CERTAINLY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION   AND WOULD INDICATE THAT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA   IS LIKELY TO SEE IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN.     AS THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE   THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF   35MPH EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET SOILS IN OUR EASTERN   COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY   AN ISOLATED REPORT OF AN UPROOTED TREE IN THAT AREA TOMORROW.   
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Epic disaster possibly unfolding for Kankakee County as heavy rain now developing/re-developing across almost the entire area. Just can't catch a break.

 

Meanwhile, hardly a drop of rain falling at my place in LAF for the past hour or so. Models and forecasters kinda busted on this one.

 

 

18z NAM really cranks the def zone later, but mainly JUST east of here.  System is still in developing stages so will have to watch closely.

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BUF with some interesting commentary about the anomalous nature of this closed low:

 

AN INNOCUOUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IN THE VCNTY OF THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-WEST TODAY
AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL ESSENTIALLY
ENERGIZE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ORGANIZED INTO A CONSOLIDATED SFC LOW OVER OHIO BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEEPEN TO NEARLY 995MB...WHICH IS
RATHER UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...THIS FEATURE HAS AN
OCCURRENCE INTERVAL OF ABOUT FIVE TO TEN YEARS (FOR LATE JUNE). AS
SUCH... ANY MATCHING ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE CIPS ANALOGS DO NOT
EXIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

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18z NAM really cranks the def zone later, but mainly JUST east of here.  System is still in developing stages so will have to watch closely.

 

At this point, what can go wrong will go wrong, so I totally expect it to sit over them and just pour. I'm at a loss right now...just totally disgusted.  :cry:

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At this point, what can go wrong will go wrong, so I totally expect it to sit over them and just pour. I'm at a loss right now...just totally disgusted.  :cry:

 

I know that feeling man, where the rains just keep coming and there's nothing that can be done.  Really a drain.  99% of the time "it's just the weather" and it doesn't really affect us or people close to us in as meaningful of a way, but then there's the times that it does.  Perhaps your move back to IKK is coming at a good time.  Hang in there.

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BUF with some interesting commentary about the anomalous nature of this closed low:

 

AN INNOCUOUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IN THE VCNTY OF THE

DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-WEST TODAY

AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL ESSENTIALLY

ENERGIZE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL

ORGANIZED INTO A CONSOLIDATED SFC LOW OVER OHIO BY DAYBREAK

SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEEPEN TO NEARLY 995MB...WHICH IS

RATHER UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...THIS FEATURE HAS AN

OCCURRENCE INTERVAL OF ABOUT FIVE TO TEN YEARS (FOR LATE JUNE). AS

SUCH... ANY MATCHING ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE CIPS ANALOGS DO NOT

EXIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

 

CLE mentions the oddity of this event as well:

 

A MAJOR (ALMOST SAID WINTER BECAUSE THIS STORM HAS WINTER STORM

CHARACTERISTICS) STORM IS POISED TO HIT THE OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA

AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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DTX's thoughts

 

PSEUDO TROPICAL MOISTURE (700 MB DEW PTS OF 6 C...850 MB DEW PTS OF
14 C) OVER MISSOURI ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AS STRONG UPPER WAVE RESIDES OVER THE MIDWEST. A SECOND
STRONG UPPER WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN PHASED SOLUTION/DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
THE QUESTION IS HOW STRONG (00/12Z EURO INDICATING 14-15 MB DROP IN
24 HRS FROM 18Z FRIDAY-18Z SATURDAY)...AND WHICH LAYER WILL BE MOST
ACTIVE...AS WE WILL BE RELYING ON THE STRONG 700 MB FGEN/MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION CLIPPING EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
BEFORE..PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT 700 MB LEVEL...WITH AT LEAST 2 C
ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. 5 C MOISTURE AXIS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR AWAY EITHER...AND WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AT THAT
LEVEL....SEEMS REASONABLE A LONGER DURATION HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
THE SAVING GRACE COULD BE IF THE 850 MB ZONE IS MORE ACTIVE...AND
LOWER BASED INSTABILITY/CONVECTION MAINTAINS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ALONG THE LINES OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ENOUGH IN THESE SOLUTIONS VERBATIM...SEE
12Z REGIONAL GEM/EURO. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH FORECASTED 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...(WITH THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY/CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN AND PW VALUES IN THE 1 TO 1.35 INCH RANGE...FLASH FLOODING
DOES SEEM LIKE A BIG CONCERN WITH 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SLOWER RESPONSE/ADVISORY TYPE FLOODING...AND WILL EVEN FORGO FLOOD
WATCH...AS EVEN THE 12Z EURO SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...AS THE FORECASTED 4 INCH QPF BULLSEYES JUST SOUTH OF WEST
LAFAYETTE INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON (18-00Z). LOOKS OVERDONE AND SEEMS
TO CARRY THROUGH INTO TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY
OVER DEEPENED SOLUTION.

 

I do disagree with the Euro mention though, ground truthing says the Euro is closer to being correct than not.

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Just under 0.4" here. Looking like somewhat of a bust here locally. Areas north of here really could have used a bust though.

 

I go out with my last event in the LAF being a bust. Seems about right. :D

 

Back up north tomorrow to fight off this new round of heavy rainfall/basement flooding. And then prepare for more next week. Good times.  :axe:

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I go out with my last event in the LAF being a bust. Seems about right. :D

 

Back up north tomorrow to fight off this new round of heavy rainfall/basement flooding. And then prepare for more next week. Good times.  :axe:

 

Good luck Tim.

 

Sounds like I might be back to heading up another sandbagging operation for the county. At least we have 3,000 or so left from last week.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

708 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0705 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S CASTLETON 39.88N 86.05W

06/26/2015 M0.76 INCH MARION IN CO-OP OBSERVER

RAIN FELL IN ABOUT 25 MINUTES. STANDING WATER ON THE

ROADS. SOME WATER SLIGHTLY BACKING UP OUT OF DRAINAGE

SEWERS.

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