ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Small cell has just exploded south of Indianola. HRRR hinted at this happening. It has that cell persisting for at least 5 hours, moving south-southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Southward moving tornadic storms are the worst, from a chasing perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Western storm is really trying now, rotation increased from DMX and OAX noticeably at 0.5˚ tilt on most recent scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Nothing underneath the storm SSE of Stuart. Very low cloud deck, ominous scud and a strong wind out of the north, but that's it. Heading toward the tail enders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 76.4 supercell composite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 So far this is looking a lot like 5/8 where storms began elevated and could never quite become fully rooted in the boundary layer, thus the tornado potential is lowered. These warm frontal events with a subtle shortwave in the mid levels just skirting the warm sector tend to be grungy like this and with lower tornado potential than one would think given the environments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 inevitable finally happened to the enhanced risk over N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 inevitable finally happened to the enhanced risk over N. IL Dude, you've had it nailed since at least early this morning with the wagons south call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I don't see much of a severe threat outside LOTs far south and west CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Dude, you've had it nailed since at least early this morning with the wagons south call. Yep he nailed it props to him! For making that call earlier this morning Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Even here in Cedar Rapids I'm not expecting much now. We all know what a big MCS to the south, sinking south, means for areas to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Dude, you've had it nailed since at least early this morning with the wagons south call. cyclone too...actually a number of people were on the south train. BTW, 18z GFS shifted north for Friday-Saturday. With how wet the region has been, somebody is going to get unwanted rain. On another note for anyone on the northern side of that thing, looks like hideous rainy/windy/very cool weather for late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Looks like a couplet may be trying to form south of Osceola, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 4km and 12km NAM both have the squall staying north of the current enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 924 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 UPDATE 924 PM CDT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER STORMS AND MOST PROBABLE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR SOUTHWEST OF A ROCHELLE IL TO FAR SOUTH METRO TO RENSSELAER IN LINE. MULTIPLE MCSS/MCVS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE PRIMARILY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 850-925MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE ABOVE THAT BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS AXIS IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED ROBUST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW IT TO WITH ANY HASTE. THE SPC HAS COLLABORATED A FEW OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL IL COUNTIES INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE EXISTING CONVECTION. SUCH GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER SPEED MAX AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WOULD SEEM THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN THAT AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI STORM MOTIONS FROM THE DEVELOPING AREA OF IA...IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT REMAIN LIKELY TO TRAIN WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACKBUILDING VECTORS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUPPORTING WESTWARD RE-DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Looks like some rotation is on the storm thats NNW of Atlantic, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 The environment is highly sheared, a lot of these storms are showing some sort of rotation. Unfortunately, cells could not stay discrete enough and things are stabilizing. I briefly saw a pair of small, horizontal funnels earlier despite a junky look on radar. Saw a few other similar reports, even a brief tornado or two may have occurred. What a huge waste of instability and shear. You won't get combinations like we saw today very often. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Carroll, IA has been under a blob of red for over 3 hours. Gotta be some major rain totals there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 That lead storm has transformed into a beautiful mesovortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 The environment is highly sheared, a lot of these storms are showing some sort of rotation. Unfortunately, cells could not stay discrete enough and things are stabilizing. I briefly saw a pair of small, horizontal funnels earlier despite a junky look on radar. Saw a few other similar reports, even a brief tornado or two may have occurred. What a huge waste of instability and shear. You won't get combinations like we saw today very often. Oh well. Another high potential but low output event. Just the theme of the year I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Interesting hook between Yale and Panora on velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Another high potential but low output event. Just the theme of the year I guess. Wasn't really a high potential, there were issues all over this event. Did the parameters go sky high? Sure, but that doesn't mean a high potential. I probably wouldn't have gone to 10% tor with the 2000z update but other than that the outlook class of enhanced was pretty spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Wasn't really a high potential, there were issues all over this event. Did the parameters go sky high? Sure, but that doesn't mean a high potential. I probably wouldn't have gone to 10% tor with the 2000z update but other than that the outlook class of enhanced was pretty spot on. when I say high potential I'm talking more so that it had the potential to go bonkers on a smaller scale, like let's say one storm goes nuts on the WF and produces several tornadoes. Not an outbreak by any means. That's just my interpretation this go around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kystormspotter Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Anyone interested in ky on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 BTW, 18z GFS shifted north for Friday-Saturday. With how wet the region has been, somebody is going to get unwanted rain. On another note for anyone on the northern side of that thing, looks like hideous rainy/windy/very cool weather for late June. 00z NAM/GFS are quite impressive with this system. Very anomalous for the time of year. Both models are sub 1000 mb with the surface low with fairly robust wind fields on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I'm currious to see our flood potential for this evening, (LaGrange IL).. We have some subdivisions in the town I serve, that take 2in of water badly, and flood the basements of the entire area. Which, in turn, causes hundreds of 911 calls relating to gas leaks, electrical fires, sparking, or other nasty things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Wow, 00z GGEM looks even more impressive than the American models for the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 850 doing its thing....that MCS headed towards quincy has just a little bit of lightning with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kystormspotter Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Hodograph out of Kentucky on friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Looks like this is turning in to a heavy rain threat with this MCS multiple Flash Flood Warnings posted in Southern Iowa.....also looks like it's back building in to NW Iowa as the night progresses Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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