Stebo Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Developed right along the WF it looks like... according to meso-analysis. Nah WF still south some, that stuff is elevated at this moment, though the WF is quickly moving northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The main show or is the main show still to come?There are multiple corridors/focal points for convection, so it's hard to tell. Somehow I don't think those storms will be the strongest ones tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0558 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 242258Z - 250100ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP FROM INITIALLY ELEVATEDTSTMS FORMING OVER W-CNTRL IA WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMINGSURFACE-BASED DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A RISK FOR ALL SEVEREHAZARDS.DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLYFORMED ACROSS W-CNTRL IA IN THE WAKE OF DECAYING ELEVATED CONVECTIONOVER S-CNTRL IA. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE INSTABILITYGRADIENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THISRENEWED DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THIS CONVECTIONCAN BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE SURFACE WARMFRONT DISPLACED SWWD OVER SWRN IA INTO N-CNTRL MO. BUT AS THE LLJSTRENGTHENS THIS EVENING IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY GROWUPSCALE BETWEEN 00-04Z ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG EMLSAMPLED IN THE 20Z OAX RAOB. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...LOW/DEEP-LAYERSHEAR IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES ANDDAMAGING WINDS...GRAMS/KERR.. 06/24/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Nah WF still south some, that stuff is elevated at this moment, though the WF is quickly moving northward. Why is the warm front not lifting northward in Illinois. Seems like it has been sitting in far S. IL all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Why is the warm front not lifting northward in Illinois. Seems like it has been sitting in far S. IL all day long. The warm front was supposed to make it up to central/eastern Iowa this morning. That didn't happen. EDIT: Warning out from DMX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 SCP over 66 now and STP maxed over the mesoanalysis scale. Too those baby storms merged into a line so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 uhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Areas along and south of highway 30 are in for a ton of rain tonight. I live about 3 miles north of highway 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Looks like some rotation on the newly formed southwestern-most cell (SW of Denison). If it does spin up, it'll turn into an extremely favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Wow these cells have really exploded in strength. The cell north of Guthrie Center, IA has gained rotation really quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Now the question is, will this complex of storms turn into a nasty line of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 For posterity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The WF is still retreating northward as well. That far western cell has a chance to really explode if the WF catches it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The WF is still retreating northward as well. That far western cell has a chance to really explode if the WF catches it. looks to have some pretty good rotation... Far from dmx Radar though. Shows up on oax as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The WF is still retreating northward as well. That far western cell has a chance to really explode if the WF catches it. It doesn't have much further to go before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 BTW, since the mesoanalysis page doesn't go above 12 with effective STP, I calculated using those indices above and it gave this value of ...drum roll... 27.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 657 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 657 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GUTHRIE CENTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... STUART AROUND 730 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 BTW, since the mesoanalysis page doesn't go above 12 with effective STP, I calculated using those indices above and it gave this value of ...drum roll... 27.5 Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Live stream from Ben McMillion. He's on the tornado warned storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 BTW, since the mesoanalysis page doesn't go above 12 with effective STP, I calculated using those indices above and it gave this value of ...drum roll... 27.5 do you, or anyone know what the record for EFF. STP is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Yeah, that middle supercell is the big kahuna at the moment. The western one appears to be suffering from the cap at the moment, but still has a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 do you, or anyone know what the record for EFF. STP is? My guess is this has to be close to, if not it. 5000 J/kg MLCAPE with >600 m2/s2 ESRH just doesn't happen very much, even in completely capped environments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Per the radar it looks like it's gonna drop one right by Menlo Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 704 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 704 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PANORA...OR 11 MILES WEST OF ADEL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... EARLHAM AROUND 745 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DEXTER...REDFIELD AND LINDEN. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 99 AND 108. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 For posterity... Dang...81? By the way, it looks STP (effective) is a typo. I think that is actually showing STP (fixed)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 do you, or anyone know what the record for EFF. STP is? OAX recorded 13.8 on 6/16/14.... Birmingham recorded 10.8 on 4/27/11 http://lukemweather.blogspot.com/2011_04_01_archive.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Dang...81? By the way, it looks STP (effective) is a typo. I think that is actually showing STP (fixed)? Yes I believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Two stations in southwestern Iowa reporting dew-points of 81. Absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Western cell now tor-warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Small cell has just exploded south of Indianola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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