jojo762 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Previously the tornado warned storm... And the other storm moving SEWD toward RAP is producing 70mph/2.75in hail, definitely warrants a PDS watch... .A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM MDTFOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHWESTERN HAAKON...SOUTHEASTERN MEADEAND SOUTHEASTERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES...AT 1015 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR QUINN...OR 18MILES WEST OF PHILIP...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND THREE INCH HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAYBE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMESWILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. HOMES AND BUSINESSESWILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE. EXPECTEXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Multiple 80-90+ mph wind reports coming out of that line in SD over the past few hours. Bow has really accelerated with an impressive rear inflow jet coming in behind and a well developed WAA wing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 We chased a beautiful isolated supercell through the Oglala National Grassland yesterday, starting near Lusk, WY, and going through South Dakota into Chadron, NE as it dove southeast at 30-60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Beast... What time was that in UTC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 What time was that in UTC? 3:04am UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 A tornado watch has been issued for North Dakota and western Montana. CAPE values are up to 3000 J/kg with effective shear values at 60 kt at the center of the tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Beast... delayed tornado report from the "beast", 0257z, 6mi northwest of Hereford, SD -- STORM SURVEY CONCLUDED AN EF-2 TORNADO WITH 115-120MPH WINDS TOUCHED DOWN 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HEREFORD AT 857PM MDT AND STAYED ON THE GROUND UNTIL 930PM MDT 5 MILES SO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Two different torn-warned storms with reported funnel clouds between Mott ND and Bison SD. Both storms are pretty far from any radar. torn-warned storm west of Bismarck, ND, with a strong rotation signature near I-94. 30 miles west of Bismarck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 PDS warning with the storm near Bison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 confirmed tornado at Bison, SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Awesome chase day on 6/21/2015. Started the day in Chadron, NE and we drove up to Bowman, ND. From there we jumped on a right-moving supercell towards Baker, MT. The storm dove southeast and took as back through ND and into SD, where it started to rotate wildly and we saw three tornadoes near the Lodgepole, SD area. After a close encounter with a developing funnel developing directly overhead, we played with the core and the back end of the storm, watching a few more funnels develop. As it got dark, we stopped to take lightning and structure shots and drove 75 miles to our hotel in Mobridge, SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 nice^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Pretty solid MCS moving through Wisconsin Dells down through the Quad Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Today's tornado risk may in fact extend a bit further southwest than one would surmise from the SPC maps. A sharp cold front is forming across north central KS into southeast NE and I would expect some discrete supercells to form in northeast KS this afternoon. Looking at the risk maps, they are quite bullish on Michigan which may suffer from limited daytime heating in the soupy mess ahead of the wave in the western GL region, and the risk is shown as almost zero west of St Joseph MO but in fact I believe the strongest tornadic storms may form in KS and will lead to a "mdt risk" type result in KS, s IA and n MO, possibly just clipping southeast Nebraska around Falls City. Lots of moisture in the hot air mass over eastern KS thanks to advection from rain-soaked OK and n TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Today's tornado risk may in fact extend a bit further southwest than one would surmise from the SPC maps. A sharp cold front is forming across north central KS into southeast NE and I would expect some discrete supercells to form in northeast KS this afternoon. Looking at the risk maps, they are quite bullish on Michigan which may suffer from limited daytime heating in the soupy mess ahead of the wave in the western GL region, and the risk is shown as almost zero west of St Joseph MO but in fact I believe the strongest tornadic storms may form in KS and will lead to a "mdt risk" type result in KS, s IA and n MO, possibly just clipping southeast Nebraska around Falls City. Lots of moisture in the hot air mass over eastern KS thanks to advection from rain-soaked OK and n TX. What? There's an EML plume with 12-14˚C temps at 700 mb capping this area off and near surface flow is going to become more veered with time, plus the main upper trough is outrunning this area. There is zilch to suggest this type of threat in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SE SD...FAR NE NEB AND MUCH OF IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO AND HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES COULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO IA AND SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY WHERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM NRN MO NWD INTO SRN IA AND WRN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB WHERE 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE +12C. FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME UNCAPPED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM FAR SE SD AND SRN MN SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF IA AND NRN IL. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/THURSDAY AT DES MOINES IA SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-55 KT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND CELLS THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS ARE LOOPED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 450 TO 550 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A STRONG TORNADO. TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN TURN RIGHT AND PARALLEL THE WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CELLS THAT DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. IF AN MCS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...THEN A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SD SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/abr/June21and222015SevereWeatherEvent Radar loop & photos of the South Dakota event as well as this report: "By 2:20 am, the storm entered western Stanley County and at 2:32 am it produced a wind gust of 122 mph near Hayes, as measured by a home weather station" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Awesome aurora last night near Lemmon, SD on an in-between day yesterday while the northern plains reload after the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 derecho event over a 2-day time period: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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