40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Yea, I agree that it looks like it's going to town. I totally missed the boat. Good call, isentropic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Nice if we achieved major for a bit, I'd imagine it only has until about the 5pm advisory. Pretty attainable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Definitely better structure, but still a small hurricane in terms of overall size. Makes it easier for the storm to attain Cat 3 if bursts of convection continue. Still thinking shear down the road will hamper a bit, depending on direction of storm overall during the next 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Latest recon pass readily confirms 100 kt intensity. What a fascinating storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Already a cat 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Today will be the best Danny looks until it goes extra tropical down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Looks like a cat 3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Today will be the best Danny looks until it goes extra tropical down the road. Someone said that yesterday. With the forecasted amount of shear H.D. will more than likely evolve into an open wave and dissipate into the books.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Bombs away, eye is shrinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It actually looks more like the eye is degrading than tightening, it should weaken if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 Lol. Danny is a Cat 3 115 mph. The little engine that could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It actually looks more like the eye is degrading than tightening, it should weaken if anything. Wrong lol Hurricane DANNY Update Statement Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive UPDATE 000WTNT64 KNHC 211747TCUAT4HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJORHURRICANE...Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dannyis now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindScale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)with higher gusts.No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving intoan area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend isexpected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to theforecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.3N 48.6WABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES$$Forecaster Beven/Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 "Wrong lol" Really dude? Wrong lol Hurricane DANNY Update Statement Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive UPDATE 000WTNT64 KNHC 211747TCUAT4HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJORHURRICANE...Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dannyis now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindScale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)with higher gusts.No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving intoan area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend isexpected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to theforecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.3N 48.6WABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES$$Forecaster Beven/Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny now a cat 3 nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It actually looks more like the eye is degrading than tightening, it should weaken if anything. What? Wrong wrong wrong. I expect Danny to go into rapid intensification as the eye is shrinking. You can also see Danny pushing away the dry air on the Satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 "Wrong lol" Really dude? It actually looks more like the eye is degrading than tightening, it should weaken if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I find it pretty comical that people are continuing to say that it's weakening yet they had to issue a special advisory not even three hours later to indicate it had strengthened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Someone said that yesterday. With the forecasted amount of shear H.D. will more than likely evolve into an open wave and dissipate into the books.. It'll get sheared to hell over the next couple days. But a nice looking fish storm at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I find it pretty comical that people are continuing to say that it's weakening yet they had to issue a special advisory not even three hours later to indicate it had strengthened. The comment you replied to was about the eye wall shrinking within the last 45 minutes. So how does an upgrade that was based on flight recon data from 45 minutes ago prove that the comment was wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It'll get sheared to hell over the next couple days. But a nice looking fish storm at the moment. That's heavily reliant on a more Southerly/Westerly track. I am not convinced at that. The spaghetti models continue to track North and we now have a Northerly camp which didn't exist yesterday. Also, the shear continues to lessen. Assuming the NW heading continues, it should survive the trip. In my humble opinion, the forecasts for dissipation were based on a much weaker system than currently exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The comment you replied to was about the eye wall shrinking within the last 45 minutes. So how does an upgrade that was based on flight recon data from 45 minutes ago prove that the comment was wrong? The "should weaken if anything" was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 That's heavily reliant on a more Southerly/Westerly track. I am not convinced at that. The spaghetti models continue to track North and we now have a Northerly camp which didn't exist yesterday. Also, the shear continues to lessen. Assuming the NW heading continues, it should survive the trip. In my humble opinion, the forecasts for dissipation were based on a much weaker system than currently exists. I didn't say it would "not surivive"....just that it would get sheared to hell...I'm sure it will remain a TC. But it will just be a lot weaker and uglier looking than it currently is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The "should weaken if anything" was wrong. I have no idea whether it will be right or wrong. But you are talking about something that has started occurring after the data was obtained that was the basis of the cat 3 upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I didn't say it would "not surivive"....just that it would get sheared to hell...I'm sure it will remain a TC. But it will just be a lot weaker and uglier looking than it currently is. The globals certainly aren't filled with rainbows regarding its future, but if the system can skate by to the North of the islands I think it ends up being quite a threat to at least the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I have no idea whether it will be right or wrong. But you are talking about something that has started occurring after the data was obtained that was the basis of the cat 3 upgrade. My question about the possible pinhole eye was answered by Superstorm; radar doesn't support it. Therefore I was wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I was talking about from here on out, you misrepresented the deteriorating eyewall as a start for RI on the loop you posted, but it wasn't (I wasn't referring to current strength) Anyways, as a general rule a eyewall filling in isn't a good thing, this could go on to become the strongest hurricane on record and that wouldn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I was talking about from here on out, you misrepresented the deteriorating eyewall as a start for RI on the loop you posted, but it wasn't (I wasn't referring to current strength) Anyways, as a general rule a eyewall filling in isn't a good thing, this could go on to become the strongest hurricane on record and that wouldn't change. Technically we might be talking about two different things right now. Either eye-wall filling or eyewall replacement. Either way a slight dip in strength could be the result followed by some RI. Given the position on the shear located to the north and west of the storm, it if very likely the eyewall filling in could most likely be a result of shear and not replacement, giving way to the idea of weakening. If so, that's jut physics for you. There is no real argument here in favor of one or the other until time has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Lol. Danny is a Cat 3 115 mph. The little engine that could. Yes, I thought is was nearing that. Again, nice call by the intensification crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Yes, I thought is was nearing that. Again, nice call by the intensification crew. I am seeing the effects of the shear already to the north and east of the storm, pushing the feeder bands farther north and shrinking the moisture on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I am seeing the effects of the shear already to the north and east of the storm, pushing the feeder bands farther north and shrinking the moisture on the western side. Yea, no big development there.....I said it had until about 5pm. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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