40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 By the way, that Eastern Caribbean sucks .......one of the most heinous spots within any domain of tropical activity. Just a tropical cyclone morgue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I doubt that, look how the estimates continue to go up 2015AUG21 121500 3.8 993.4 61.0 3.8 4.9 5.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -20.66 -59.27 EYE -99 IR 9.0 13.87 47.73 SPRL GOES13 35.3 2015AUG21 124500 4.0 990.7 65.0 4.0 5.0 5.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -20.46 -58.79 EYE 9 IR 9.0 13.89 47.85 SPRL GOES13 35.2 2015AUG21 131500 4.2 987.3 69.8 4.2 5.0 5.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -7.16 -58.41 EYE 11 IR 9.0 13.94 47.91 SPRL GOES13 35.2 I hadn't looked at any hard data, but to me it doesn't look to intensify much longer, then... The last update on that is a couple of hours old, though...the IR imagery has eroded a hair since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Glad you went there....if it doesn't bend west quickly, I think it misses the islands by the stubbies on Kev's grape. There is definitely a stronger shear axis ahead that Danny will need to overcome. You can see it clearly on IR loop, however once passed that point, if far enough North, the shear would be virtually zero once North of Puerto Rico. It's no surprise that some of the latest guidance has a weakening trend followed by re intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I hadn't looked at any hard data, but to me it doesn't look to intensify much longer, then... It's always good to look at data before making a statement. Otherwise you risk ending up on the same short bus as Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I'm cool with a moderately strong tropical storm nearing the Bahamas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It's always good to look at data before making a statement. Otherwise you risk ending up on the same short bus as Kevin No, I know my $hit. I took one look at the sat. and made a determination. But thanks kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I'm cool with a moderately strong tropical storm nearing the Bahamas.... I'm NOT. More then likely Danny will have long faded...next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 No, I know my $hit. I took one look at the sat. and made a determination. But thanks kid. I'm not sure how much you can tell by looking at the IR loop. Especially when you're dealing with such a small cane and wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I think it's fun to make sat. estimations as well, as opposed to parsing through printouts incessantly. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see why guesstimating intensity trends based on sat analysis warrants being told to ride the short bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I'm not sure how much you can tell by looking at the IR loop. Especially when you're dealing with such a small cane and wind field. Yea, cooling cloud tops are usually what you want to see in an intensifying system. Can I look through recon data to confirm?? Maybe it's diff in small systems...could be healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I'm NOT. More then likely Danny will have long faded...next. I guess it could bc it is so small....just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Yea, cooling cloud tops are usually what you want to see in an intensifying system. Can I look through recon data to confirm?? Maybe it's diff in small systems...could be healthy. It's almost to the diurnal minimum so even though cloud tops have warmed a tad on the Western semi-circle I wouldn't say that's significant at this time. The eye is still very well defined and outflow is still well established in all four quadrants. It could also be starting to feel the effects of the shear axis to the NW. For the record, I wasn't telling you to ride the short bus. All I was saying is that you're better off checking multiple data sources before making an assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I hope that recon can get into Danny in the near future. That will add valuable data to the models regarding the intensity which will greatly impact future forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 105 mph 11 am update. Dvorak estimates had 5.0 so it looks like they went with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Boom, up to 105 MPH at 11AM advisory, almost a major. ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMBULLETINHURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0420151100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.0N 48.2WABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress ofDanny.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was locatednear latitude 14.0 North, longitude 48.2 West. Danny is movingtoward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion isexpected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west isexpected on Saturday or Saturday night.Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)with higher gusts. Danny is about to encounter a less conduciveenvironment, and weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. ANOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Dannylate this afternoon.Danny remains a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extendoutward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical stormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It's almost to the diurnal minimum so even though cloud tops have warmed a tad on the Western semi-circle I wouldn't say that's significant at this time. The eye is still very well defined and outflow is still well established in all four quadrants. It could also be starting to feel the effects of the shear axis to the NW. For the record, I wasn't telling you to ride the short bus. All I was saying is that you're better off checking multiple data sources before making an assertion. Great point regarding diurnal max. Theoretically, true, but I like doing sat. estimations...fun. I could see if I said something dumb, like suggesting they should upgrade it to cat 4.....but suggesting that it had peaked for now is not outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I think we have all seen this movie already... HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0420151100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015Danny has continued to strengthen during the past several hours.The small eye has become better defined, and it is now embedded ina circular central dense overcast. In addition, the ragged outerbanding has increased in coverage and now surrounds the centralconvection. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt inagreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Itis notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggeststhat low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushedthe drier air farther away. This could be helping both theintensification and the increase in outer banding.The initial motion is 290/9. The subtropical ridge north of Dannyremains weaker than normal due to a deep-layer trough over thewestern Atlantic. This trough is expected to lift northward in acouple of days, allowing the ridge to build westward andstrengthen. This evolution should cause Danny to turn morewestward with some increase in forward speed. The track guidanceis in good agreement with this scenario and forecasts Danny to benear the Leeward Islands in about 72 hours, near Puerto Rico inabout 96 hours, and near Hispaniola in about 120 hours. The newforecast track, which is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWFmodels, lies close to the previous forecast through 96 hours and alittle to the north of the previous forecast at 120 hours.Danny is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear.However, it is about to encounter increasing upper-levelsouthwesterly flow associated with a trough over the northeasternCaribbean, with the shear forecast to increase to over 20 kt by 96hours. This, combined with the abundant dry air remaining along theforecast track, should cause Danny to weaken below hurricanestrength as it approaches the Caribbean islands. The new intensityforecast is a little stronger than the intensity consensus through96 hours. After that, it is weaker than most of the guidance dueto the expected interaction with land.A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and aroundDanny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissanceaircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon. These datawill provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure ofthe hurricane.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 21/1500Z 14.0N 48.2W 90 KT 105 MPH12H 22/0000Z 14.5N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH24H 22/1200Z 15.1N 51.7W 85 KT 100 MPH36H 23/0000Z 15.5N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH72H 24/1200Z 17.0N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH120H 26/1200Z 19.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Still doesn't mean it hasn't peaked. I was wrong on the intensity. . If I were 100% accurate, I'd employed by NOAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Off by 5 mph but it looks impressive so I'm not surprised its a cat 2 of 105 mph now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Great point regarding diurnal max. Theoretically, true, but I like doing sat. estimations...fun. I could see if I said something dumb, like suggesting they should upgrade it to cat 4.....but suggesting that it had peaked for now is not outlandish. Well you said 90MPH max and it's now 105MPH so.... 90 MPH...tops. Danny has peaked.... Doesn't matter, hopefully we can get this up to a Cat 3 for the 5PM advisory. The latest discussion states that the core is very well established and the better organized the better chance it has to survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Well you said 90MPH max and it's now 105MPH so.... Doesn't matter, hopefully we can get this up to a Cat 3 for the 5PM advisory. The latest discussion states that the core is very well established and the better organized the better chance it has to survive. So what? Are you that guy who reminds everyone for an entire season when they miss a snowfall call? My call was not outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The whole **** measuring contests are nauseating. I'll be wrong again....you will be right again, and vice versa....both us of us will live and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Off by 5 mph but it looks impressive so I'm not surprised its a cat 2 of 105 mph now Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 So what? Are you that guy who reminds everyone for an entire season when they miss a snowfall call? My call was not outlandish. Stop taking it personal. I was having a little bit of fun at your expense. It's funny how when someone makes a definitive call in meteorology they usually end up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Stop taking it personal. I was having a little bit of fun at your expense. It's funny how when someone makes a definitive call in meteorology they usually end up being wrong. Right. Next time I'll give a 10 mph range. Would you have slept better at night if I had said 90-100mph? If I had a weenie for every time someone throughout a single snowfall number for fun.... You may enjoy the main tropical thread better. You'd fit right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Sorry I derailed the thread. My bad. I think the reason I missed was I failed to take into account the period of time in between advisories in which Danny had a very defined ring of cold cloud tops around the eye. It had obviously gone to town during that time.....even though the presentation currently not quite as impressive. Dumb mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 In the latest visible and IR frames it looks like Danny took a big gulp of dry SAL from the west. It definitely looks worse now than earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 In the latest visible and IR frames it looks like Danny took a big gulp of dry SAL from the west. It definitely looks worse now than earlier today. Huh? It just had another burst of deep convection in the southeast quadrant and cloud tops are cooling once again on the West side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I figured it would have taken less than 9 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Recon is in Danny now. Finding 111kt winds at 650 mb per main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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