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2015 Tropical Season Thread


CT Valley Snowman

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Due to Danny's small size I wouldn't be surprised if the winds in the direct core are stronger then 75mph

It's also not upwelling much with swell at the closest bouy only at 10-11 seconds. That's very low for a hurricane and means swell energy does not extended very deep. A larger storm will generally produce swell in the 16-17 second range

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Cant see tiny Danny affecting SAL much though

 

 ...it's having a similar effect on the environment out there. You can clearly see the SAL curtain bulging around its presence.  And also ..., the space/region behind is quite a bit cleared out compared to what the Meteosat was picking up prior to his ejection from Africa.  

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 ...it's having a similar effect on the environment out there. You can clearly see the SAL curtain bulging around its presence.  And also ..., the space/region behind is quite a bit cleared out compared to what the Meteosat was picking up prior to his ejection from Africa.  

Yea , isn't that the ITCZ though where its traveled and the Sal to its north. seems some dry air in its wake in the ITCZ

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5new.html

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Too bad the damn ridge builds back in so quickly to veer it due west; however if it didn't, the sheer would kill it.

 

I wish things would stay status quo....eh

If the system goes North of the islands it will miss most of the shear. By going North, I mean it needs to just scrape the Virgin Islands on the Northern side. The 12z Hurricane guidance continues to nudge North.

 

al042015.png

 

Compared to 06z

 

al042015.png

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90 MPH...tops.

Danny has peaked....

I doubt that, look how the estimates continue to go up

 

2015AUG21 121500  3.8  993.4  61.0  3.8 4.9 5.3  1.7T/6hr  OFF  OFF  -20.66 -59.27  EYE    -99 IR   9.0   13.87   47.73  SPRL   GOES13 35.3 
2015AUG21 124500  4.0  990.7  65.0  4.0 5.0 5.2  1.7T/6hr  OFF  OFF  -20.46 -58.79  EYE      9 IR   9.0   13.89   47.85  SPRL   GOES13 35.2 
2015AUG21 131500  4.2  987.3  69.8  4.2 5.0 5.4  1.7T/6hr  OFF  OFF   -7.16 -58.41  EYE     11 IR   9.0   13.94   47.91  SPRL   GOES13 35.2 
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