Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Invest 97l could be interesting this weekend "indeed" ... , "snow" j/k.. yeah, this is overall all is a striking success for longer lead prediction of frequency... Details aside, it was noted in here many, many a-moon post ago that this period from Aug 15 through ..circa September 10 or even 15 was going to get active. The probabilities product sited was even quite a bit anomalously high at that. Here we are with Danny, albeit in danger of damping, but two new invests: one home grown, and the train off Africa appears to be in effect. Whether any of this directly impacts any particular area of interest aside, this tropical season may still have a chapter or two coming before we can label it a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 There is low level cyclonic turning associated with invest 97L southwest of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Ineedsnow, that is what I have been saying all along here, now that we have an invest 97L I can put a name to it now. I think 97L can hit SNE as a 60mph TS. Especially if that ridge stays strong over SE Canada and North Atlantic Ocean near the Canadian Maritimes. No, to be fair and honest... You were referencing the U/A "TUTT" disturbance, and what they are labeling is not that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Agreed Tip, this period is going to be interesting. HWRF already sees the tropical wave near over the west coast of Africa as becoming a good sized cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Oh yeah true, no I was referencing the disturbance that forms on the models, I missed diagnosed it as the upper level tutt, but now see it is separate entity all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 It was a short life Matt Lanza @mattlanza 16m 16 minutes ago Danny probably doesn't have a prayer vs. the shredder this weekend. Euro says waves behind Danny marginally more interesting perhaps. I don't know who that person is... but I agree that subsequent disturbances may also develop. But what does he mean by "more promising..." ? For what exactly... ?? Danny developed. That's successful - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I don't know who that person is... but I agree that subsequent disturbances may also develop. But what does he mean by "more promising..." ? For what exactly... ?? Danny developed. That's successful - Nothing is more promising than the prospect of damage and chaos, so I'm guessing that's what he means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny is a hurricane now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny is officially a Hurricane now, maybe we should stick forks into more storms (storm fork sticking is illegal in many countries, as it intensifies stroms, bringing death and destruction everywhere) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Better chance of seeing pigs fly by your window than see Daniel intensify I shared this same sentiment through last night, but the system seems to be doing well for itself after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I shared this same sentiment through last night, but the system seems to be doing well for itself after all. I shared this same sentiment through last night, but the system seems to be doing well for itself after all. Danny could LF in RI, then Ct CC wouldn't feel its effects. 10 mile wide H winds less than 60 mile wide TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 "...Conventional and microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually smalltropical cyclone...." That is really cool! And, may actually be an interesting puzzle for the models. In fact, I wonder if the initialization grid size could be challenged for the GFS camp - interpolations for the loss if Danny is a micro-cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 For all you mayhem marvins ... this is great if this southerly/sou' easterly flow persists from the MA on up like this, because it piles and piles warm water into the shelf area S of LI, which would be a positive feed-back for any TC that "winds" the gamble of corner turning chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 "...Conventional and microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small tropical cyclone...." That is really cool! And, may actually be an interesting puzzle for the models. In fact, I wonder if the initialization grid size could be challenged for the GFS camp - interpolations for the loss if Danny is a micro-cane. Too bad conditions were not remaining favorable because this could go boom very, very rapidly. It will probably derail rather quickly once the shear makes itself known.... These tiny critters are acutely malleable to external influences.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I just saw a pig fly by...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I just saw a weenie fly by...LOL The mods missed. Damn it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 12Z Models initialized at 60 Knots, it's tiny in size though so it might ramp up or collapse rather quickly, a very challenging forcast for the Leeward Islands for sure. Bingo. Just saw this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Kevin is wrong again, shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Kevin is wrong again, shocker.I think he is right, put a nail in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I think he is right, put a nail in it He said it wouldn't strengthen anymore last night when it was a 50 MPH tropical storm. Danny is now a cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 He said it wouldn't strengthen anymore last night when it was a 50 MPH tropical storm. Danny is now a cane.lol I missed that, I was referring to the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 lol I missed that, I was referring to the forecast These midgets are notoriously tough on forecasters.....huge intensity fluctuations with little warning. Charlie was a great example...forecast for about 100mph, roared ashore at 145mph... Catch 22 because it is even more critical that landfall is appropriately timed relative to the life cycle. They fall as fast as they rise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 These midgets are notoriously tough on forecasters.....huge intensity fluctuations with little warning. Charlie was a great example...forecast for about 100mph, roared ashore at 145mph... Catch 22 because it is even more critical that landfall is appropriately timed relative to the life cycle. They fall as fast as they rise lol Andrew was really tiny too, wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 These midgets are notoriously tough on forecasters.....huge intensity fluctuations with little warning. Charlie was a great example...forecast for about 100mph, roared ashore at 145mph... Catch 22 because it is even more critical that landfall is appropriately timed relative to the life cycle. They fall as fast as they rise lol For the first few vis frames this morning, when Danny had a relatively clear eye, it kind of reminded me of Charely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 . These tiny critters are acutely malleable to external influences.. Indeed ... but, Danny plays the role - plausibly - as the 'sacrificial lamb' He's scouring out a lot of SAL contamination and in general, leaving a moister atmosphere in place. The upside is that he has not been strong enough, or large enough combined to significantly perturb the SST/oceanic heat content ... all this now in wait for later Pac-men to gobble west from off of Africa. I've seen this in the past .. and have thought it worthy of formal research. The first significant TW of an erstwhile quiescent season is often blown up (or over blown anyway ...) in guidance, but it is in fact that 2nd, 3rd system that performs better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Indeed ... but, Danny plays the role - plausibly - as the 'sacrificial lamb' He's scouring out a lot of SAL contamination and in general, leaving a moister atmosphere in place. The upside is that he has not been strong enough, or large enough combined to significantly perturb the SST/oceanic heat content ... all this now in wait for later Pac-men to gobble west from off of Africa. I've seen this in the past .. and have thought it worthy of formal research. The first significant TW of an erstwhile quiescent season is often blown up (or over blown anyway ...) in guidance, but it is in fact that 2nd, 3rd system that performs better. Had never thought of this, but it makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Andrew was really tiny too, wasn't it? Yes, Andrew was small....it was a little larger upon 2nd LF, but not as intense. ERCs are a vehicle for growth, thus they often remain weaker the 2nd go around; however the more expanse mind field may yet be more destructive...think surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Had never thought of this, but it makes perfect sense. Cant see tiny Danny affecting SAL much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Most of the swath s of the Cape Verde island is clear in it's wake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Unless they curve wnw right off of the coast, they will essentially miss it. The ones that curve wnw right off of the coast will not be factors for any land masses, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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