Hoth Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Very disappointing event outside of I 95.[/quot Smashed my dock, which was never rebuilt, and sent my grandmother's sunfish to Davy Jones' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Bob produced a ton of rain back this way but winds were pretty tame. The streets did become rivers for a time during the rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 My interest is piqued.... I always get excited every time a I see a cane bend west towards southern Florida, underneath a potent ridge...have for the past 22 years, 355 days. Too much shear once it gets near and past the islands. Most likely gets torn part unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Too much shear once it gets near and past the islands. Most likely gets torn part unfortunately I haven't even looked at any of the synoptics....I thought there was a pig ridge north of it, especially north of the islands?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Happy Anniversary That was good for 2' of water in my basement as No power, No sump pumps, No generator at that time, But was the reason i have one now and saved me in Ice Storm 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 If it tracks North of the Islands it will be in a good environment. Southern track is trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Only TC of my experience in which the backside winds were just as strong as frontside, at least in Gardiner, Maine, though over 90% of the 6.4" rain came before the wind shift. One stand of tall aspen on a state lot NW of LEW had 1/3 of the trees pointing NW, 1/3 pointing SE, 1/3 surviving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 If it tracks North of the Islands it will be in a good environment. Southern track is trouble. This is what I had thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 I'm worried about this upper level low which is going to the surface now, 850mb vorticity is strong with this one. This is the disturbance off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 My favorite time of year to bring back the Noel chase... it was the first gathering (for myself) of meeting the wieners. Bob with his garbage bag still makes me laugh aloud. Still have my zoot suit! Will and Kevin even then, back and forth. Things never change I guess 8 years ago. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Danny looks like a turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Well ... anyway, should Danny survive the immediate lapping fest of the coolant out there ... he's got two options in the models. As others are undoubtedly aware, those are 1) damping out as an open wave either due to interactions with the Caribbean archipelago/unfavorable atmosphere at that time; or, 2) comes further N to within 50 or 100 naut mi of PR as an intense, odds-dodging success story. Both options are disappointing to Hurricane-experience enthusiasts, however, but may be interesting meteorology to those who care to reflect on matters scientifically. The 2nd option is particularly annoying, tho, wrt to the enthusiasm. Because ... the "would-be" hurricane moves almost dead perfectly through the needle threaded climo track for the majority of EC impactors; yet, it's tough to move a 'cane up into the EC with an OV heat wave maturing. Nope... bumpered to England in the GFS scenarios. Option 1 may actually be the best hope for any experience at all, *IF* the GFS' idea of a late season subtropical/continental ridge balloon is correct. Obviously ... lots of moving parts to this (to put it lightly...). So, notwithstanding the bewildering myriad of possibilities ... the reason why is because a weaker system sneaks west through the lower troposphere, and then ends up in the western Caribbean over the some of the highest octane oceanic energy on the planet. If the system is stronger than beta-drift would erode the system more polaward out in time, and then it would have to either recurve or stall before doing that anyway. There is yet a more abstract 3rd option to consider... the other foreign models are correct about the troughing in the OV, while the GFS wins the intensity and northerly track position(s). That gets interesting... The only trouble is, there are no models that concurrently show those two scenario... Well, I suppose one could argue the NAVGEM (frankenmodel) does a little, but I have yet to see that particular tool turn a screw with much success just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Come on ... you can do it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Don't forget the Cape Cod Scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 I'm telling you while the CMC is the most bullish with it in its 12z run, it is completely possible that our disturbance off the east coast of the US gets going north of Bermuda and is slingshot northwestward towards CC and Islands. 850mb vorticity is almost as strong with it north of Bermuda as Danny's 850mb vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 I'm telling you while the CMC is the most bullish with it in its 12z run, it is completely possible that our disturbance off the east coast of the US gets going north of Bermuda and is slingshot northwestward towards CC and Islands. 850mb vorticity is almost as strong with it north of Bermuda as Danny's 850mb vorticity. The GGEM is notorious for this. It's an ULL and it would take a lot to get significant surface development. I think the most likely scenario is the energy interacting with the stalled front. Not exciting but plenty wet, and that's good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Don't grouse if Danny succumbs ...and I'm not saying that it will - if. Because, we're likely see another there emerging off Africa fairly soon. The Basin is about as primed as it's going to be for this year, and this years particular inhibitors...and robust looking waves with impressive cyclonic sigs are poised to move off. The period of time between Aug 15 and Sept 7 was modeled by experimental products to be quite active - if perhaps antithetical to predictions as that may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 The GGEM is notorious for this. It's an ULL and it would take a lot to get significant surface development. I think the most likely scenario is the energy interacting with the stalled front. Not exciting but plenty wet, and that's good enough for me. Yeah, I don't see much evidence that the storm phase is transitioning there. It would need to pass through sub-tropical thermodynamics ...then wend it's way to creating the quasi- ocean/atmospheric coupling that is required for purer warm cores... That's a long trek. Sometimes that can happen fairly fast, so we'll see. -- when given any excuse at all the CMC drills for oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 it looks like Danny is mixing out the dry air from his core now, should get ready to become a monster in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Stick a fork in Daniel. He's done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny is not done, he has about four more days to intensify into something mean before wind shear impacts him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Better chance of seeing pigs fly by your window than see Daniel intensify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Dry air, somewhat disorganized, entering an area of slightly cooler than normal ocean temps. Looks like riging may build north of the cyclone and keep the path further south where it could encounter greater wind shear and land. Danny honestly doesn't have a lot going for him in my mind. At least the pattern looks intriguing going forward with more waves emerging from the African coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Better chance of seeing pigs fly by your window than see Daniel intensifyHe's about to pop an eye on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny looks healthier. More symmetry. Deeper convection. Better outflow. Still not impressed with his long term prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 It was a short life Matt Lanza @mattlanza 16m 16 minutes ago Danny probably doesn't have a prayer vs. the shredder this weekend. Euro says waves behind Danny marginally more interesting perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny is organizing pretty quickly since last advisory came out at 5am AST. Central Deep convection with a warm spot developing over his center of circulation. Danny may actually survive for the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 12Z Models initialized at 60 Knots, it's tiny in size though so it might ramp up or collapse rather quickly, a very challenging forcast for the Leeward Islands for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Invest 97l could be interesting this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Ineedsnow, that is what I have been saying all along here, now that we have an invest 97L I can put a name to it now. I think 97L can hit SNE as a 60mph TS. Especially if that ridge stays strong over SE Canada and North Atlantic Ocean near the Canadian Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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