JC-CT Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Or that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 There's no way the shelf waters are 80+F ... come on - The combination of a typical cooling waters tucked W of the G-STRING (haha), while cT or cP airget entrained off the continent as TC's parallel the coast causes them to weakened, typically. The main reason why NE ever gets a strike (NS too for that matter) is when there is anomalous S-->N or SSW --> NNE steering flow associated with the westerlies. These set ups will accelerate a TC to the point where it translates great polarward distance before completing transitions to baroclinic thermodynamics... In fact, I've spoke to other advanced Meteorologist that argue almost every Express is probably in the process of conversion by the type they strike LI - just matter of to what degree. What I meant by the 100 years is that we are NOT there... Keep in mind, also, that the thermocline is very shallow N of the VA Capes. Wave action running out ahead of TCs is enough to perturb the very shallow thermocline and mix a good deal of that buoy temperature down. I've been around the beaches of S. RI when the water was piss warm at waste deep but your toes felt the chill when bobbing around out in the deeper waves. We are at the terminus of the Labrador Current here. It's poooossible that given some extremely rare scenario of a warm water plume severing off the "string" and rotating into the NY Bite area could make for a different story but I think I've only seen that happen once in 30 years. Having that be present when a LI Express turned the corner would be exceptionally more rare than the LI Express its self ... which didn't really need that due to the acceleration phenomenon I just mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 anything special about the current pattern that would alter or favor the prevailing paths? All the data/guidance sources I've seen argue for a.k.a a "Caribbean Cruiser" -- ie, the southern climo route. But, it's early, and guidance will definitely change - -whether that entails a different track suggestion or not remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 My initial thoughts were a Caribbean Sea Cruiser, but I saw something different in Danny this time around, I see a cyclone that wants to strengthen rapidly and instead go north of the Caribbean Sea Islands. I could be wrong as ridging could fill back in at 500mb or higher, but to be honest, this system seems destined for the Bahamas or Recurvature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Danny is moistening up his environment at a rapid pace this afternoon. He has a well developed outflow channel on the equator side of the cyclone and he has centralized deep convection developing over his center of circulation. Outflow is present to great in all areas and the northern side is developing nicely. He is shaping up to be a classic CV type of hurricane that could pose a serious problem for the NE Lesser Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 It needs to go North of the islands to have a chance and a stronger system would help to pump the heights up out ahead of it which might help but it's going to be a close call. Anything that crosses into the E Caribbean is destined to be shark bait. If the system does make it far enough North, odds will still favor a late recurve as it nears the Western periphery of that ridge. If we could get some decent blocking in the N Atlantic then Florida might be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 18z gfs would bring whats left of danny up here but thats way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Danny is intensifying nicely tonight with deeper convection developing over the center of circulation. There is an area of thunderstorms to the northeast of Danny, that could merge with him and create a total moist environment for him killing off the dry air intrusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 18z GFS has Danny making landfall in SE Florida, Miami region in about 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 18z gfs would bring whats left of danny up here but thats way out :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 Pretty far south on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Non tropical low pressure center currently mainly in the upper levels is currently sitting to the northwest of Bermuda sitting in very warm waters. I think this low will move to the surface eventually and could become tropical by day 4 Saturday. A stalled frontal boundary sits over SNE during this time from north to south, or southwest and this could give enough room for the tropical low or cyclone to hit CC and Islands during the Sunday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 00z NAM develops surface vorticity with the upper level low near Bermuda by hour 30, it heads this way towards SNE. I think we could have a tropical storm make landfall on the SNE coastline this weekend. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 It would appear that the 00z NAM develops a surface low south of Bermuda towards hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Also most models have a large +NAO blocking ridge over New Foundland and Nova Scotia, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 The ADT T#s went up especially the Raw T#'s up to 3.4, Danny is getting stronger. Maybe already up to 45 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 00z NAM develops the 850mb vorticity associated with this non tropical low by 00z Thursday. 24 hours from now we will see what models are right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 I was right, the NHC upgraded him to a 50mph tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 This weekend might be too late for the disturbance developing near Bermuda by 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Danny, 18z GFS tracks right down Main St FL. Storm has to be inside 3 days then maybe it will garner my interest. I had a giggle with the local Met on the evening news stating the persistent frontal boundary all summer long will steer Danny well OTS. I would like to experience a CAT3 down here. One must be careful for what one wishes for. Soon to be 30 miles W of DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Danny, 18z GFS tracks right down Main St FL. Storm has to be inside 3 days then maybe it will garner my interest. I had a giggle with the local Met on the evening news stating the persistent frontal boundary all summer long will steer Danny well OTS. I would like to experience a CAT3 down here. One must be careful for what one wishes for. Soon to be 30 miles W of DAB. I was a freshman at U. Miami in August '92....After experiencing a direct hit from Andrew there (I think it was a cat 4 or 5?), I wouldn't want to experience anything more than a 1. That was a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 I was a freshman at U. Miami in August '92....After experiencing a direct hit from Andrew there (I think it was a cat 4 or 5?), I wouldn't want to experience anything more than a 1. That was a long night. I would tend to agree. Andrew was a scary beast. The following year I drove down 95 out of MIA, Homestead was flattened. Not a palm over 3' It's the fruit in me that says bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 00z GFS tracks mainly North of the Islands with a very formidable cane near the Turks and Cacaos late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 00z GFS tracks mainly North of the Islands with a very formidable cane near the Turks and Cacaos late next week. This setup strikes my interest. There are shades of Hurricane Betsy and other loopy TCs in the 500mb setup that surprised us later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 6z gfs is interesting threw 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 Lol. We are doing play/by/plays already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 My interest is piqued.... I always get excited every time a I see a cane bend west towards southern Florida, underneath a potent ridge...have for the past 22 years, 355 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 I was a freshman at U. Miami in August '92....After experiencing a direct hit from Andrew there (I think it was a cat 4 or 5?), I wouldn't want to experience anything more than a 1. That was a long night. Beat me to the reference. Bas#*rd. My favorite cane ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Happy Anniversary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Very disappointing event outside of I 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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