USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I think a storm near category four strength is possible if it is moving at a very rapid pace. Let's say its moving at around 20mph and the strength of the winds are between 120-130mph, it will likely stay around 120mph when it reaches the SNE coastline, the SSTs aren't that warm, but enough to sustain it tropical wise. Yes JT its me James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Hey James good to see you around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 12z CMC and 12z EURO runs develop a low pressure center near Bermuda around 96 hours and then have it heading either northeastward out to sea like the EURO or Northwestward like the CMC after 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Same to you JT. I think invest 96L has the first legitimate shot at attaining category three hurricane strength or stronger this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I think a storm near category four strength is possible if it is moving at a very rapid pace. Let's say its moving at around 20mph and the strength of the winds are between 120-130mph, it will likely stay around 120mph when it reaches the SNE coastline, the SSTs aren't that warm, but enough to sustain it tropical wise. Yes JT its me James. It's all about staying in the Gulf Stream as long as possible and then rocketing north. That's what 38 did and Sandy even more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Really wish 96l would get its act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 LOL, 96L is getting its act together, now at 90% chance of development and actually may become a tropical cyclone when I said it would at midday Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 LOL, 96L is getting its act together, now at 90% chance of development and actually may become a tropical cyclone when I said it would at midday Tuesday. Honestly if this wasn't in the middle of the Atlantic it probably would already be classified. The latest hurricane models are clustered on a track towards the islands in about 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 TD-4 has formed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We've got a bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We've got a bingo 85 kts is a heck of a bullish call, all things considered. I'm really not sold on anything more than a moderate TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 So when does the GFS see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Anyone care to speculate on whether this makes it to the U.S. in some capacity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Anyone care to speculate on whether this makes it to the U.S. in some capacity?DT thinks yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 This won't make it to the US, I'm more worried about Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 At least it's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 It's a Bahamas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 This won't make it to the US, I'm more worried about Bermuda. Sure about that? Global models develop a strong ridge to the North which bends the track back towards the Islands. I think the most likely scenario is that the system eventually enters the Caribbean where the shear will take its toll or that it tries to island hop and eventually dies over Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 It's a Bahamas storm If it tracks far enough North of the Greater Antilles then the chances of a Southeast US impact would greatly increase. That is one pig of a ridge overhead until the system approaches Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We'll see in a 100 years when the 80 F SST isotherm gets N of the VA Capes, and the shelf waters S of Long Island get to 80 in the summer times... It's already there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Those are some high SSTs over the western Atlantic Ocean. I think TD4 makes it north of the NE Lesser Antilles islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 It's already there... You need to learn celsius to fahrenheit conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Yeah Will, its not quite there underneath SNE, but near the VA Capes its adequate enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 You need to learn celsius to fahrenheit conversion. Isn't that map showing the second darkest red as 28-30 and the next one down as 26-28? Edit: nevermind, I get everyone's response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Isn't that map showing the second darkest red as 28-30 and the next one down as 26-28? The 24C isotherm is right off LI south coast ad the 26C isotherm if off the Delmarva on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 You need to learn celsius to fahrenheit conversion. The scale runs from 26C-28C. Some areas are along or above the 80F isotherm. The resolution is not detailed enough to pick it up. It was mostly for the VA Capes North claim, we clearly have warmer waters elevated northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The scale runs from 26C-28C. Some areas are along or above the 80F isotherm. The resolution is not detailed enough to pick it up. It was mostly for the VA Capes North claim, we clearly have warmer waters elevated northward. Posting an anomaly map doesn't help us. The map you posted shows the shelf waters south of LI around or just over 24C. That is mid 70s. So the claim that we are already there is not true. There's a reason hurricanes fall apart rapidly when they head north of the VA Capes. That was kind of Tip's point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 anything special about the current pattern that would alter or favor the prevailing paths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I've got friends honeymooning in St Lucia next week, this could pose a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Posting an anomaly map doesn't help us. The map you posted shows the shelf waters south of LI around or just over 24C. That is mid 70s. So the claim that we are already there is not true. There's a reason hurricanes fall apart rapidly when they head north of the VA Capes. That was kind of Tip's point. The water temp at the Long Island buoy 44025 is currently 74.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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