Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I gotcha. But weak waves and a borderline super Nino doesn't exacty sound like a busy MDR season on the way. That and the last few disasters. I wouldn't be surprised to finaly see some decent waves come off and just as they are doing so bam the shear gun starts blasting. Time will tell This isn't a "super nino" ...It's been over sold quite a bit. Not sure why, but this particular El Nino has been getting histrionic praise -- Fact of the matter is, the number currently range moderate to strong in strength, among the four key zones of the ENSO monitoring, and the recent model runs have less members wondering off into supreme oblivion. In other words ... the mean is tamer; and it always has been for that matter. It seems there has almost been a wanton interpretation that exceeds reality with the El Nino. Could it become a "super" nino? Sure, but it isn't modeled to do so and isn't there at this time. ...whatever super means... anyway, I still don't see an abundance of shear over-taking the Atl. Basin. We still are not getting strong Waves to eject along the CV region. Amazing to see that product now going off the charts for the last 2 weeks of the month and into the first week of September though. Whatever is out there in the formulation of that product, it's gotta be keying in some some pretty fantastic signals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I think we may get our threat come this weekend. NAM is gung ho on a potent tropical storm coming up this way from 850mb vorticity over MO currently. I don't know what the wind shear maps say for that time frame, but what I do know is that the SSTs to our south are warming up. This is the start of the real hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I don't see a threat. A coastal low? And the nam turns everything into a CAT II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 I don't see a threat. A coastal low? And the nam turns everything into a CAT II. Coastal low yes. It does have an outside chance of being subtropical. This is the homegrown stuff I'm looking for this season. Bob was a local boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Coastal low yes. It does have an outside chance of being subtropical. This is the homegrown stuff I'm looking for this season. Bob was a local boy Well that was in response to the post before mine. That is a baroclinic low developing from processes we see in east coast cyclogenesis. That in itself can produce gusty winds and rain....I guess I don't see the tropical threat even if it's subtropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 I think we may get our threat come this weekend. NAM is gung ho on a potent tropical storm coming up this way from 850mb vorticity over MO currently. I don't know what the wind shear maps say for that time frame, but what I do know is that the SSTs to our south are warming up. This is the start of the real hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 This will be interesting to see ... http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/06/us/2015-hurricane-season/index.html - vs - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/tcforecast/tcforecast.html Re Roundy ... I have been aware of this product for years; I have never seen an anomaly that large and extreme in a decade or more of use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Hope everyone is prepared for the weekend threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Hope everyone is prepared for the weekend threat! ha, ur bad - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Hope everyone is prepared for the weekend threat! Got my prepper kit, aka fifty pounds of Slim Jims. Windows boarded up, sandbags around the perimeter, bathtub filled. I am ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Got my prepper kit, aka fifty pounds of Slim Jims. Windows boarded up, sandbags around the perimeter, bathtub filled. I am ready. no beer? Phail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 no beer? Phail The bathtub is full of Lagavulin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 what season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Welp ... we got our selves a promising Invest. 96L is at an extremely low latitude, ~ 9N by 28 W. This is actually favorable for development for a couple of reasons. One, the SAL is safely N by several hundred KM. Shear is also inherently low for the disturbance being on the equatorial side of the monsoonal trough. In fact, the disturbance should continue to trundle its way westward along the axis of divergence aloft for the next several days. I realize that shear is supposedly in surplus during warm ENSO events (Paciifc). We haven't actually observed anomalous shear, and I believe that since this warm ENSO event's onset has primarily taken place during the nebular hemispheric gradient associated with the summer season, there has not yet been consequential exhaust invading the Atlantic Basic - this may change as autumn matures. TPC placed a 50/50 shot at designation by mid week, with 60 % soon there after. This is the highest probability of development since May, ending an extended dearth in features of significance. During the interim there have been a few suspicious gyres that have spun west off the western African continent, as well, locally to the west Atlantic waterways .. but none showing 96L's promise. Note: this almost precisely the beginning of the erstwhile discussed Roundy Probabilities product showing huge anomalies in the 2nd half of August/first half of September. Also, the SST's in the Atlantic have been running slightly cool anomalous S of the polarward aspect of an apparent tripole. However, just over the last 10 days we've seen SST amid this negative node warm slightly. It is interesting that those two, one predictive, and one observational, seem to be collocating in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Welp ... we got our selves a promising Invest. 96L is at an extremely low latitude, ~ 9N by 28 W. This is actually favorable for development for a couple of reasons. One, the SAL is safely N by several hundred KM. Shear is also inherently low for the disturbance being on the equatorial side of the monsoonal trough. In fact, the disturbance should continue to trundle its way westward along the axis of divergence aloft for the next several days. I realize that shear is supposedly in surplus during warm ENSO events (Paciifc). We haven't actually observed anomalous shear, and I believe that since this warm ENSO event's onset has primarily taken place during the nebular hemispheric gradient associated with the summer season, there has not yet been consequential exhaust invading the Atlantic Basic - this may change as autumn matures. TPC placed a 50/50 shot at designation by mid week, with 60 % soon there after. This is the highest probability of development since May, ending an extended dearth in features of significance. During the interim there have been a few suspicious gyres that have spun west off the western African continent, as well, locally to the west Atlantic waterways .. but none showing 96L's promise. Note: this almost precisely the beginning of the erstwhile discussed Roundy Probabilities product showing huge anomalies in the 2nd half of August/first half of September. Also, the SST's in the Atlantic have been running slightly cool anomalous S of the polarward aspect of an apparent tripole. However, just over the last 10 days we've seen SST amid this negative node warm slightly. It is interesting that those two, one predictive, and one observational, seem to be collocating in time. Any chance that it could actually make landfall anywhere near the northeast?Thanks. /weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Any chance that it could actually make landfall anywhere near the northeast? Thanks. /weenie All we can really do at this point is hope an exact replica of 1938 happens. Other than that not much else to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 I would do anything for that to happen even a legit hurricane All we can really do at this point is hope an exact replica of 1938 happens. Other than that not much else to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 All we can really do at this point is hope an exact replica of 1938 happens. Other than that not much else to say All aboard the Tolland Express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 96L could simply miss the shear axis to its northwest as it slides westward at or around 10N and into the Caribbean Sea , it could be a hurricane before it reaches the islands. Also a disturbance collocated with upper level low to its west is currently being sheared, but if it moves to the northwest some and not so close to the islands it could actually develop over the warm waters of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 96L looks like the one real threat on the horizon right now to become Tropical Storm Danny and then eventually Hurricane Danny. I would give 96L 70% chance at developing within 2 days and 80% chance at developing within the next five days. That is for the 2am hour TWO. Also I saw the latest HWRF run and it develops 96L into a decent hurricane. However the 18z GFDL does not develop 96L, right now based on current conditions and the condition of 96L's convective structure, I would have to say it develops within 48 hours and becomes Danny at around 3z on the 19th. It already appears it is developing a good feeder band on the northwest side of the circulation. This is the most promising system of the year to this point. Shear is low, SSTs are decent and moist background gives credence to my expectations of 96L. Convection will fluctuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I would do anything for that to happen even a legit hurricane So would every single one of us here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 Up to 70 percent chance of development per NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 So would every single one of us hereMy board join date isn't a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 96L looks like the one real threat on the horizon right now to become Tropical Storm Danny and then eventually Hurricane Danny. I would give 96L 70% chance at developing within 2 days and 80% chance at developing within the next five days. That is for the 2am hour TWO. Also I saw the latest HWRF run and it develops 96L into a decent hurricane. However the 18z GFDL does not develop 96L, right now based on current conditions and the condition of 96L's convective structure, I would have to say it develops within 48 hours and becomes Danny at around 3z on the 19th. It already appears it is developing a good feeder band on the northwest side of the circulation. This is the most promising system of the year to this point. Shear is low, SSTs are decent and moist background gives credence to my expectations of 96L. Convection will fluctuate.James is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Fish? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 1938 was ok, but I'd like to see something with higher sustained winds and a larger storm surge. Let's break some records for fatalities and damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 1938 was ok, but I'd like to see something with higher sustained winds and a larger storm surge. Let's break some records for fatalities and damage. I think a 1635 redux ought to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I think a 1635 redux ought to do it. 1635 was legit. I doubt it was a cat 4 as that's nearly impossible this far north but a solid cat 3. There was an even stronger storm during the pre-colonial period some time between 1200 and 1400 that was even stronger them 1635. I would love to see the meteorology behind that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 1635 was legit. I doubt it was a cat 4 as that's nearly impossible this far north but a solid cat 3. There was an even stronger storm during the pre-colonial period some time between 1200 and 1400 that was even stronger them 1635. I would love to see the meteorology behind that We'll see in a 100 years when the 80 F SST isotherm gets N of the VA Capes, and the shelf waters S of Long Island get to 80 in the summer times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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