USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 98L looks to be a problem sometime around Wednesday through Friday time frame. Could be a minimal hurricane if wind shear behaves in a favorable manner. Right now shear around 5-10 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 98L has a very well organized convective pattern with regards to the mid level circulation, but the low level center appears to be off set to the northwest a little by northwesterly wind shear. However shear is currently 5-10 knots over the center so that shouldn't be a problem. We may be looking at wind shear out of the south with a divergent flow aloft allowing intense ventilation of the convective system of 98L in the future. However right now this could become a depression by 5am tomorrow. I think 98L or the future tropical cyclone could impact SNE with a pre event leading up to the landfall of a tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane with 70-80mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 98L has a very well organized convective pattern with regards to the mid level circulation, but the low level center appears to be off set to the northwest a little by northwesterly wind shear. However shear is currently 5-10 knots over the center so that shouldn't be a problem. We may be looking at wind shear out of the south with a divergent flow aloft allowing intense ventilation of the convective system of 98L in the future. However right now this could become a depression by 5am tomorrow. I think 98L or the future tropical cyclone could impact SNE with a pre event leading up to the landfall of a tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane with 70-80mph winds. It's a TD right now. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Lol at the accidental hurricane warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yup it became TD11 right after I typed up that discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Shear looks to be a problem The best bet to see a real impressive system would probably involve an extra tropical transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 HWRF. Where good money goes to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 HWRF. Where good money goes to waste. It garners clicks and retweets. I'm going to make my own model incorporating USCAPEWEATHERAF initial conditions and fill it up with some google ads. I'll be rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 11 am discussion is a bit interesting still not expecting this to strengthen but would not surprise me seems like we are in for a ton of rain either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Interesting... It's been a while since I've seen some high quality urban flooding, this has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Interesting... It's been a while since I've seen some high quality urban flooding, this has potential. I'd rather not. My commute through Peabody and Salem to get to Salem State is bad enough with the Halloween crap starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I think with the HWRF and GFDL both forecasting TD11 becoming a hurricane by landfall is quite possible if shear relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I'd rather not. My commute through Peabody and Salem to get to Salem State is bad enough with the Halloween crap starting. It's my fourth year, so I've long since accepted October Madness. Though they're usually pretty reasonable about closing for snow, the administration is absolutely awful when it comes to acknowledging the impact that (sometimes severely) flooded roads and lots has on commuters. Peabody is almost always in worse shape though, depending upon which parts of town you have to drive through. Where do you usually park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Oops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 It's my fourth year, so I've long since accepted October Madness. Though they're usually pretty reasonable about closing for snow, the administration is absolutely awful when it comes to acknowledging the impact that (sometimes severely) flooded roads and lots has on commuters. Peabody is almost always in worse shape though, depending upon which parts of town you have to drive through. Where do you usually park? I only have classes in the new social work building, so somewhere near there on Lafeyette street. If I can't park there, then the GYM parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I think with the HWRF and GFDL both forecasting TD11 becoming a hurricane by landfall is quite possible if shear relaxes. If shear relaxes, I don't think RI is out of the question over those gulf stream waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I don't think the GFDL and the HWRF being strikes in its self as too alarming -- these models tend to have a polarward bias. What I find a little alarming is that the Euro drills a Cat 1/2 strength cane on a near Sandy redux. That tends to lend a nod actually and should be noted. Also, regardless of the presence of a tropical system, that long fetch may be a problem eventually too. But wow, secondary to these observations, the last 3 cycles of the GFDL and HWRF have gotten incrementally more powerful ... the 12z HWRF is in fact a Cat 4 hurricane just NNE of the Del Marva with a bead the NYC Bite!! That would make Sandy ... put it this way. Sandy was a large system - but this ...well, be someplace else. These 18z runs will be intriguing to say the least. Right now, 11 L is exposed, but moving smartly SSW. Also at present there is clear mid-level component vortex ...perhaps indicative of a vertically tilted system. There is a lot of shear in the area from the NNW in the U/A so development, if any would be slow to occur in the shorter terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I agree Tip, short term shear should remain moderate in strength, about 15-20 knots. However later on we could see shear relax as an upper level anticyclone develops offshore the NC coastline and upper level southerlies develop to the east of the upper level trough over the SE US. This divergent flow aloft should weaken some decreasing the amount of wind shear over the cyclone. However any movement more to the west results in landfall earlier or weakened storm due to dry air and higher shear, but if the cyclone maintains a more easterly component up to landfall it could maintain a stronger system with the high SSTs over the Gulf Stream. I think with the GFDL showing a more intense storm with category four winds and pressure, we may see this high end potential become a reality in the longer term, more so towards day 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 That naked swirl that was ejected earlier has been injected back into the fold and convection is looking healthy with the diurnal maximum. I daresay it even appears to be wrapping around the center a bit. Shear is still certainly impinging development on the western envelope, but I believe it's progged to relax a touch in the next day or so. Still, certainly piques my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 That naked swirl that was ejected earlier has been injected back into the fold and convection is looking healthy with the diurnal maximum. I daresay it even appears to be wrapping around the center a bit. Shear is still certainly impinging development on the western envelope, but I believe it's progged to relax a touch in the next day or so. Still, certainly piques my interest. I think we've got ourselves a name judging by latest trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think we've got ourselves a name judging by latest trends. Would tend to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hello, Joaquin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 NHC needs a bigger cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 NHC needs a bigger cone I don't think they could pragmatically have one even bigger than they already have - ha. Yeah, lots of spread still... actually, the runs yesterday "seemed" to be better clustered, but ...that could just as well have been a mere coincidence, where they were spraying results that happened to be in the same area of the proverbial dart board, more by chance. It's funny how the "mood" of all seems to be singularly guided by the vagaries of the operational Euro model. Yesterday, it was doing some sort of Sandy perversion... and, there was a palpable elation, albeit polish of conserved tone to attempt to cover it up in the clamor of posts throughout the day. Last night, Jaquine rockets to England and there's this palpable pull-back on fervor, if perhaps polished under a conservative tone that attempts to cover up the fact that ... blah blah blah I recall that Sandy was also contended that way across the pantheon of dependable guidance sources; some were clustered around the whip out, others ...the whip in. Well, we know how that went. One thing I have noticed is that the teleconnector groups were suddenly destabilized over the previous several nights of persistence. Now, though the NAO is still slated in the GEFs to be negative, it's not nearly doing so with the same panache, attempting to bounce positive actually ... this later characteristic of the field up there is utterly new folks. Oh, ...it's bad for the excitement geese so we better go with that idea - I get it. Psycho-babble aside... I suggest everyone just rest in the notion that we are in a smoldering excitement period, which is a far, far frame of mind improvement to be in compared to seemingly un-ending ennui. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 20151100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud patternof the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern sideof the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. Theupper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle ofthe system, and restricted over the northern part of thecirculation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt,which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Forceplane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and shouldprovide a better estimate of intensity.Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continuesto be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track inthis advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with anoverall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern,but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic shouldallow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. Thispushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but thedeterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a goodlikelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas,and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turnsthe storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previousforecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the trackforecast is very low.The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decreasein 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening,which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speedpredictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggeststhat Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 LLC is exposed again. Story of the season thus far. That shear needs to relax before this can really stack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 A new top-secret weather model, developed by the NOAA in collaboration with the Intelligence-Security Agency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the World Chess Federation (FIDE), has been leaked by anonymous government officials and is said to possess 99.92% accuracy at ranges out to 384 hours. This new model is expected to instantly change the field of weather forecasting as we currently know it, and is expected to replace the jobs of thousands of weather forecasters and meteorological professionals in upcoming months, creating a massive unemployment crisis among the weather-nerdprofessionals community. Images of the forecast output from this model, which is known only by its code name P004, was leaked on Twitter this morning. Within a matter of hours from the leak, supermarket shelves in stores throughout the Northeast were wiped clean. This is what it showed: In other news, shares of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) started the day up 0.7% from yesterday's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 A new top-secret weather model, developed by the NOAA in collaboration with the Intelligence-Security Agency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the World Chess Federation (FIDE), has been leaked by anonymous government officials and is said to possess 99.92% accuracy at ranges out to 384 hours. This new model is expected to instantly change the field of weather forecasting as we currently know it, and is expected to replace the jobs of thousands of weather forecasters and meteorological professionals in upcoming months, creating a massive unemployment crisis among the weather-nerdprofessionals community. Images of the forecast output from this model, which is known only by its code name P004, was leaked on Twitter this morning. Within a matter of hours from the leak, supermarket shelves in stores throughout the Northeast were wiped clean. This is what it showed: In other news, shares of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) started the day up 0.7% from yesterday's close. Nice post. In all seriousness, I know it's a joke right now because of the range, but the agreement among the ensembles is quite astounding for such a long lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Euro ENS have nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Euro ENS have nothing Do you know this for a fact? Have you looked at the individual members for the Tropics post hour 240? Didn't think so. All you have is an ensemble mean of the United States which is useless that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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