Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 This is sort of dryly amusing... The headline reads, "...Fred refuses to weaken...," and the discussion later reads, "..Fred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear. However, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and continuity. I will not speculate any more about the convection redeveloping or not. The NHC forecast calls for little change in intensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the next day or so, there is a chance of slight re intensification as indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Well, looks like TPC is officially firing up the designation for the big # 7 out S of the CV isles... It is hard to track that disturbance in the models, as they en masse tend to keep it weak ... with some solutions having nothing more than a polarward bulge in the monsoonal trough's pressure contouring, that rolls west in that 15th to 20th parallel. Other models, like the GFDL and HWRF ...struggle to deepen it but it's like there's some physical contention going on that holds it in check. Perhaps all that will change the next time its presence actually makes it into the inputs. Question, does formal designation of these fledgling disturbances trigger some sort of 'forced analysis' in the inputs? I'm curious if there's sort of standard assumption of pressure, temperature and moisture that is only offset IF the models are forced to analyze by designation - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 12z gfs recurves between the east coast and bermuda atleast its something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Grace is born... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Grace is born... Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Would you guys stop obsessing over this thread already ... What's interesting about 92L is that ... about 3 or 4 days ago, there were several successive model runs that spun up an uber deep ocean tempest E of Bermuda... They lost, but now and Invest pops up along the frontalysis out there - hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Would you guys stop obsessing over this thread already ... What's interesting about 92L is that ... about 3 or 4 days ago, there were several successive model runs that spun up an uber deep ocean tempest E of Bermuda... They lost, but now and Invest pops up along the frontalysis out there - hmm You would think that an Atlantic littered with stillborn tropical fetuses would garner more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 That's terribly insensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 That's terribly insensitive. Every time an angel gets his wings, someone amongst contemporary society will be offended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 It's the apex of the tropical season today!!! Run for cover!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 It's the apex of the tropical season today!!! Run for cover!! This next one coming off Africa just "Invested" by TPC. A few models role an apparent 'dent' in surface pressure pattern ... westward, and some, like the hugely trustworthy and fantastically accurate CMC model (that never over-zealously deepen tropical systems without physical cause...) even bring it to hurricane status out there around D7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Models develop an area of low pressure off the East Coast of FL and moves it generally north-northeastward towards Canadian Maritimes. Could become very potent with a strong polar outflow channel with convection streaming in that direction. Wind shear is dying off from southwest to northeast with time and about 72-120 hours of time to intensify before it moves over cooler SSTs. The SSTs off the SC and FL coastlines can produce or sustain a 900mb hurricane at this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Models develop an area of low pressure off the East Coast of FL and moves it generally north-northeastward towards Canadian Maritimes. Could become very potent with a strong polar outflow channel with convection streaming in that direction. Wind shear is dying off from southwest to northeast with time and about 72-120 hours of time to intensify before it moves over cooler SSTs. The SSTs off the SC and FL coastlines can produce or sustain a 900mb hurricane at this time of the year. Whatever happens just wish it would bring us rain. NHC doesn't even have anything with an X on their maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Whatever happens just wish it would bring us rain. NHC doesn't even have anything with an X on their maps Yes they do, its the yellow X in the SE GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Yes they do, its the yellow X in the SE GOM. Thanks USCAPE. Didn't even click on it. I assumed that thing would move NW and disapate before reading the discussion. Good, something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Models develop an area of low pressure off the East Coast of FL and moves it generally north-northeastward towards Canadian Maritimes. Could become very potent with a strong polar outflow channel with convection streaming in that direction. Wind shear is dying off from southwest to northeast with time and about 72-120 hours of time to intensify before it moves over cooler SSTs. The SSTs off the SC and FL coastlines can produce or sustain a 900mb hurricane at this time of the year. Has there ever been a 900mb cyclone anywhere near the east coast? Outside the Keys of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Whatever happens just wish it would bring us rain. NHC doesn't even have anything with an X on their maps This season is an X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Uh uh uuuuuuh, it's not over 'till it's over... It's been a long time since we've seen a solid Basin meandering TC. This looks like a GPS tracker for a kid lost in a mall - "Mommy? where's my mommy? Have you seen my mommy?" The models tossing out some bizarre predicted motion with Idaho potato. The gist of which is more drifting, perhaps some motion to the N or even NE, then a halt ... recapitulation, then reversing toward the W. I hope the 180 hour GGEM fantasy of having a mid category hurricane bouncing off the Gulf Coast in three days of band-sawing, while another strong TC approaches the outer Bahamas bears reality ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 You know the season blows harder than a west-pack super typhoon when NHC sees fit to track a batch of showers with "0.0% chance of tropical cyclone formation". A wise Sox manager once said "I think you're reaching"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Tropical ennui. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Tropical ennui. "With a 100% of winter focus formation" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 For you folks in New England I wouldn't dismiss 98L as this could be in that general area in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Tropical system SW of Bermuda is looking better and better as it moves NW late this PM. Clear rotation at least at the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Tropical system SW of Bermuda is looking better and better as it moves NW late this PM. Clear rotation at least at the mid levels. Just looking at the 18Z GFS I can't figure if it has 98L kind of moving west during the next couple of days and then just stalling around just off the SE. Then the next trough quickly captures it and yanks it up the coast. Could we be looking at a scenrio of a tropical storm or hurricane next weekend in the New England vicinity next weekend? Interesting situation that no one is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Because it rarely happens 18z gfs rain totals are pretty epic though Just looking at the 18Z GFS I can't figure if it has 98L kind of moving west during the next couple of days and then just stalling around just off the SE. Then the next trough quickly captures it and yanks it up the coast. Could we be looking at a scenrio of a tropical storm or hurricane next weekend in the New England vicinity next weekend? Interesting situation that no one is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Because it rarely happens 18z gfs rain totals are pretty epic though There are great differences between the evolution of 98L on the 12z/0z Euro and 18z GFS. It seems to simply poof out on the 18z GFS whereas on the Euro it remains a well-defined system growing ever stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Shear looks to be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 38 enroute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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