40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Not that it matters like you said, but I remember years back seeing a graphic on the weather channel of September 10th being the peak of the Hurricane season. But perhaps I'm wrong? Actually, I remembered it as 9-10 or 9-11....I think you are right because if it were 9/11 that would have resonated with me more for obvious reasons. Good call...pretty sure that is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If only..... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015082812&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 CMC might be my favorite TS porn run ever, what a joke. run out of Forkys basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 CMC might be my favorite TS porn run ever, what a joke. run out of Forkys basement I have a dream.... Just meanders between Hatteras and NE for like a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I have a dream.... Just meanders between Hatteras and NE for like a week 3 loops, gets weaker stronger weaker stronger. The fetch in NJ lasts like 12 tide cycles, what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 3 loops, gets weaker stronger weaker stronger. The fetch in NJ lasts like 12 tide cycles, what a joke The idea of being trapped under the ridge somewhere is about the only value that run brings....I buy that, but my hunch is that reality will be a bit more tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The idea of being trapped under the ridge somewhere is about the only value that run brings....I buy that, but my hunch is that reality will be a bit more tame. yea in the SE as a meaningless LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's reasonable through about 48 hours, but then just goes completely OFP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's reasonable through about 48 hours, but then just goes completely OFP... euro is total meh, next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 euro is total meh, next Oh, I've already resigned myself to next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Oh, I've already resigned myself to next.... Next year more like it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If Tip can't conjure about some interest, then we know it's cooked. Damn Hispanola cordillera... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's mind boggling with these operational model evolutions... Excuse the anthropogenic comparison for a moment; it's as though the models have such a conscious agenda/obsession with bringing a TC up to the E side of FL that they are ignoring physics and manufacturing a way to hold on to that idea like a convict to the bars on the way to a death sentence... I mean give it up already.. If there is anything to even to monitor (for that matter) one is forced to ponder if the central Gulf might make for a better option at this point. Wouldn't it be funny if this thing came S of Cuba, through the Channel, over the thermalcline ball, when Cat 5 and slammed into New Orleans...? Jesus at this point there's only been "miss" guidance wrt to prediction skill so take a wild guess - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 28, 2015 Author Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's really beyond absurdity.. Every model correcting westward. You go to look at the projected track from the previous update and the storm is already west of progged location and not moving north. Erika plays by here own rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Next year more like it lol Yep sheer madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's really beyond absurdity.. Every model correcting westward. You go to look at the projected track from the previous update and the storm is already west of progged location and not moving north. Erika plays by here own rules. And... I think it's plausible to decode the rule - That aside, I'm really more annoyed by the clear and present IMpossibility for Erika system to end up E of MIA, yet some of the models are still doing that. Part in parcel to that, ... I strongly believe there has been an over initialization of the system in the grids since about the time it was named a few days back. Before that, I distinctly recall the Euro pretty much always being a flat open wave moving through the Caribbean. That may be wrong ... it may in fact be a closed circulation - but I hunch the continued designation is borrowing from the idea that it's undue paper work if Erika defies and "re"develops. Anyway, if the system were deeper integrated in the atmosphere it probably would have slipped more N due to beta drift and tapping into the deeper layer steering field and so forth... But, seeing as it's been disorganized, ...I think of it as a wave/cyclone hybrid. I've actually seen that sort of thing in the Caribbean circle of death before... Powerful waves with insane cold cloud tops that are utterly alarming to look at, have one, 50mph squall that's in an arc in one semicircle while the rest of it is relatively open and benign. May or may not be happening here, but it seems like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Yep sheer madness Maybe we'll get the rapid transition to nina for next year. Good spring severe...we roast....and active tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Erika has had a closed circulation, she just opened up recently and is now tightening up once again before her trip over Hispaniola. I think she already made landfall. Anyways has anyone been paying attention to the hurricane Jimena over in the East Pacific Ocean? rapid Intensification is occurring and its always fun to watch the ADT numbers go way up when an eye is seen. A weak TS into the central GOM will get eaten alive by that pesky trough sitting in the central GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Now that advisories are discontinued and no one is talking about it Erika is looking like maybe she is coming back. Convection firing over LLC and the center is now clear of Cuba. Will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Going to track S of the DR? Oh my, then what...stall off the coast of FL intensify to a CAT4 and then drift toward SC. THEN get pushed out by the next trough. Really if the computers don't have a clue a mere human doesn't have a chance. No outcome is off the table. The main tropic thread is trashed. Seems like the heavy-weights have scattered due to the pitch by pitch crap. Haven't seen that before, no never. OT- The Td had dropped (not since mid June) below 75 here overnight, earlier today and frankly it felt cool. I have not lost interest. Mere humans can only speculate. It is what it is. Concern was not so much wind damage. Right-side of whatever translates to boatloads of rain!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 I have not lost interest. Mere humans can only speculate. It is what it is. Concern was not so much wind damage. Right-side of whatever translates to boatloads of rain!!! Erika will be the oppo of Caitlin, will become Fred if it regenerates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 In support of LGBT I say they break the rules and name it ERIC...LOL. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 How will we ever survive the incredible historical 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season ... "...This makes Fred only the fourth Atlantic tropical storm to form east of 19W longitude in NHC's database..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 That's probably a closed circulation again in the NE Gulf http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=TBW&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 That's probably a closed circulation again in the NE Gulf http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=TBW&loop=yes Sure looks like nice rotation to me. TPC gives it a 0% chance of becoming a TS, I would have not gone quite that low, maybe 20-30% just drifting NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Sure looks like nice rotation to me. TPC gives it a 0% chance of becoming a TS, I would have not gone quite that low, maybe 20-30% just drifting NE I think the problem is that it will be onshore soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Isn't this great ... we just keep pumpin' out CV failures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Isn't this great ... we just keep pumpin' out CV failures... Goes along with what I was thinking about the MDR being a mess this year with the trifecta of bad. You did call the solid wave though. They just can't hang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Models are consistently developing the next wave. NHC gave it 50% chance in the next two days and 70% chance over the next five days. The only real model interesting model currently is the GGEM which brings the system into the Eastern Bahamas in 10 days as a cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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