CT Valley Snowman Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 Obviously the users know this already ... but, the GFDL is still scarier than that, though. I don't think it's our place (not scolding you so take it the right way -) to even speculate. So I will ... I can see a myriad of evolutions panning out. It seems though, that the greatest common denominator behavior, one that may even be more at 'hinted' than actually depicted (depending on the model used) is this notion of a ridge in the middle latitudes rolling through the MA/NE regions WHILE Erika approaches and passes either through the heart of the Bahamas, or nearby. That is key... because hurricanes will move by two influences in this order: steering level vectors; beta drift. Beta drift is like torque - it's basically like a spinning baseball "curves" ... the angular momentum of the hurricane combined with Coriolis imparts a tendency to move it right in time. So naturally... it is the weaker of the two motivators. The bigger one is the steering winds. Right now... pretty unanimously among the guidance I have seen (trends therein) over the last 36 hours worth of runs, there should be some sort of mid level weakness/shear axis/or weak troughing around the lat/lon of the Tennessee Valley. This, while west Atlantic mid level ridge puts the kibosh on any early escape to the graveyard. So Erika may be impelled to move generally WNW under that longitudinal cap, until it detects the weakness over the interior SE U.S., and then turns NW (circa Bahamas ...) that initially "looks" like a the classic set up for an EC run (or even a Long Island Express), but ...heh, nope. That ridge rolling through the 40th parallel/70W is another longitudinal cap that is completely wrong for that sort of track excitement. But it doesn't appear "deflecting" Erika W or E would work [necessarily] either. It really seems coming to a slow down or stall off the U.S. SE coast seems the best fit for an aging middle range period. Taking the 00z global GFS and blending it with the 06z version, would tend to average out that way anyway.. And the Euro's completely losing it rather abruptly like that... not sure that sort of continuity argument applies to the tropics; obviously elsewhere in the atmosphere the run would probably be tossed, but ...never know - could be seeing interaction with mountain elevations along the PR archipelago ..., over playing shear, who knows. Erika does seem to be a little S of the earlier runs this week... interesting. Currently Erika doesn't look that great to me and never has, despite these pretty colored convective balls that occasionally balloon. That could change, fast..sure, but given to the preponderance of shear in intervening layers that may not be over the next day or two. Whether the Euro's on to something or not, a somewhat S adjustment/assumption to track guidance isn't entirely unjustified, either, given to what appears to be a constant tendency for the convection to regroup center fixes slightly S. And that adds uncertainty out in time, too. So in the end, myriad of possibilities. Speculation takes place in this forum constantly. My guess is as good as any. We already see the center being relocated south and the track adjusting further left. Florida is definitely still in the game. All the reasons you mentioned above are valid. I am not too keen on it making it into the gulf or north of the VA tidewater. I was just taking my best guess and I could very well be wrong. In fact, I most likely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Seems like a south track puts it over Shrederrola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Going to track S of the DR? Oh my, then what...stall off the coast of FL intensify to a CAT4 and then drift toward SC. THEN get pushed out by the next trough. Really if the computers don't have a clue a mere human doesn't have a chance. No outcome is off the table. The main tropic thread is trashed. Seems like the heavy-weights have scattered due to the pitch by pitch crap. Haven't seen that before, no never. OT- The Td had dropped (not since mid June) below 75 here overnight, earlier today and frankly it felt cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I think the idea is that it goes over at least eastern Hispaniola. After that it reintisifies. The extended GFS is LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I think the idea is that it goes over at least eastern Hispaniola. After that it reintisifies. The extended GFS is LOL. Check out the Canadian, not as dramatic as the GFS but impacts the area more directly (and comes in from a more "traditional" heading) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I think the idea is that it goes over at least eastern Hispaniola. After that it reintisifies. The extended GFS is LOL. The disruption of the llc by the islands and decoupling of the mid level and low level center via shear could preclude RI even when conditions become favorable. Real tough forecast overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Check out the Canadian. NO. Absolute terrible model for a tropical entity. Parameters of the model are not designed for tropics, better for the prairies of Saskatchewan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 NO. Absolute terrible model for a tropical entity. Parameters of the model are not designed for tropics, better for the prairies of Saskatchewan.We know, but it's sure pretty to look at. It'll be interesting to see of models aside from the GFS retrograde the storm close to this region, it's way out there in la la land but it at least keeps us interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The GFS takes the center from Bermuda to here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The GFS takes the center from Bermuda to here Tickle me skeptical on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The disruption of the llc by the islands and decoupling of the mid level and low level center via shear could preclude RI even when conditions become favorable. Real tough forecast overall I agree. I guess if we keep this rather unorganized and not have a core to disrupt, it may actually have a better shot to regroup after it leaves the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 We know, but it's sure pretty to look at. It'll be interesting to see of models aside from the GFS retrograde the storm close to this region, it's way out there in la la land but it at least keeps us interested. Did not intend to come across (harsh) in that way. With such crazy solutions being puked-out none are to be believed especially when initialization is wrong. Much at stake down here. Sure I'd love to see a CAT3 pass overhead, be in the eye. Responsible me calls foul (nuts) Even the experts are somewhat baffled. Can always tell when no clear resolution is availed the board goes silent. Many have credibility issues to keep,(understandably) only when there is a degree of certainty will the comments of I told you so or post triple bunners. That's a privilege of being educated in the science and exclusive for redtags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Nah... you should all just count on the CMC ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Sticking with the blend. A question for you tropic guru's. I remember a hurricane that actually benefited from it's interaction with Hispaniola. Anyone know which one and when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Nah... you should all just count on the CMC ... finer graphics show a 991 , Sandy style track, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 finer graphics show a 991 , Sandy style track,All of this model porn and we still have a decent chance of complete dissipation.I think anyone who is keying in one single solution is out to lunch. There are 10k mountians and shear in the way. If we do make it past that, then the real fun begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 For what it's worth. Latest greatest GFS. Odds favor this isn't even close to actuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Wow if Erika makes it through the shear and islands just so many possibilities on the table. Crazy model porn. First things first, get her north of the big islands intact then things get really interesting.... as of 230pm looks like convection is getting closer to the LLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 finer graphics show a 991 , Sandy style track, Omg - ha. the flooding in lower Manhattan would make Sandy look like an April shower.. The product I kidded with was 180... that one above is 192... Which means, it approached the NY Bite area from the theoretical best catastrophe direction, taking 12 punishing hours and a couple of high tidal cycles to do it. I've heard criticisms over New Orleans and the French warning never to build a city there back during the Louisiana Purchase. - wouldn't it be ironic if NYC becomes the worse idea - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Nah... you should all just count on the CMC ... Cmc was great with sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Omg - ha. the flooding in lower Manhattan would make Sandy look like an April shower.. The product I kidded with was 180... that one above is 192... Which means, it approached the NY Bite area from the theoretical best catastrophe direction, taking 12 punishing hours and a couple of high tidal cycles to do it. I've heard criticisms over New Orleans and the French warning never to build a city there back during the Louisiana Purchase. - wouldn't it be ironic if NYC becomes the worse idea - Loop this porn to keep Momma happy http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082712&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=472 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Euro says meh, Ukmet says meh. Looks meh to me but we watch. I will say if this does organize and sticks around all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I see Erika's low level circulation on a new WNW heading now with convection beginning to wrap around it with the MLC no longer prominent in visible satellite imagery. Wow at the new 12z GFDL, shows a category four hurricane near the Outer Banks of NC. Anyways that is a father west track than the previous morning runs of the GFDL. Which means the East Coast is not out of harm's way. I think Erika's MLC misses the Hispaniola region and moves over PR and heads north of the big islands. I also think she hits the Bahamas as a category one or two hurricane before rapidly intensifying north of the Bahamas with a large upper level anticyclone overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Euro says meh, Ukmet says meh. Looks meh to me but we watch. I will say if this does organize and sticks around all bets are off. Ginx, where does the Euro take her? Looks like deep convection about to cover the LLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Ginx, where does the Euro take her? Looks like deep convection about to cover the LLC into FL as a week 1010 Lp then dissipates in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Better Porn for her in here Tip, loop and use the options http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=05L&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2015082712&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=772 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 What a mess!! Wake me up in a couple of days ,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika is improving in appearance on satellite imagery, question is how is she really doing underneath that convective burst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 12z GFDL scares me with the intensity of Erika near the Outer Banks of NC. On that route it could come up to Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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