wxeyeNH Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The Euro now misses the US altogether as it turns north just east of Florida and then right before the Carolinas, it does have a powerful strom east of the Carolinas so sufers all along the east coast would like for that run to verify. We have seen this happen many, many times. Approaches Florida and then the curve N and NE. I would definately not discount this new Euro solution. Of course the worst possible case for the Miami to Palm Beach area is a strong cane coming in from the SE then turning north just inland. Strong east and south winds just to the right of the eye sideswiping the Gold Coast as it starts the recurve. Days and days away and we have the shear to deal with first that could make this all mute!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 We have seen this happen many, many times. Approaches Florida and then the curve N and NE. I would definately not discount this new Euro solution No way. Very, very plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 No way. Very, very plausible. You usually need a -NAO for SNE direct hits from the east. The pattern still guarantees a stall, there is no way this will recurve. It stayed weak too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 How is the EURO plausible? It develops a dubious upper level low while the GFS and CMC and GFDL and HWRF models do not, right now the EURO is an outlier north of Florida. However if that ridge is anything worthwhile the Eastern US is going to see a heat wave next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 There is a circulation in the convection which is a mid level circulation, while the low level circulation is off to the northwest of the mid level circulation, shear should drop off soon over Erika if the GFDL is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 You usually need a -NAO for SNE direct hits from the east. The pattern still guarantees a stall, there is no way this will recurve. It stayed weak too long. I said that track was very plausible assuming a stronger system....as modeled on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 How is the EURO plausible? It develops a dubious upper level low while the GFS and CMC and GFDL and HWRF models do not, right now the EURO is an outlier north of Florida. However if that ridge is anything worthwhile the Eastern US is going to see a heat wave next week. I didn't say it would verify...meant a recurve on that run made sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Latest vorticity update shows mid level circulation of Erika is strengthening but remains southeast of low level center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 oh ok, yes a recurve with that monster hurricane forecasted makes sense, but it also makes sense that Erika moves or stalls over the Gulf Stream and heads back NWward towards the coastline with a ridge anchoring itself over the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I said that track was very plausible assuming a stronger system....as modeled on the ECMWF.It's still somewhere near Bermuda at 240 hours as a pretty strong storm, I hope Mr. Surferdude is waxing his board. I don't see why some posters feel like the storm can't escape east, it's not like we have some incredible blocking pattern or anything like that, we see these recurces in similar patterns all the time, the only thing is that the pattern might not be conductive for the storm to juts fly off to the NE once it gains some latitude (there's a ridge out in the Atlantic so it might meander a bit, but there's a shorwave on the Euro that creates a weakness in the ridge) but as always, we're getting a bit ahead of ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 latest visible image at 1845 utc suggests that Erika may have jogged to the northwest some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I would estimate shear to be around 15-20 knots currently over Erika. Out of the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's still somewhere near Bermuda at 240 hours as a pretty strong storm, I hope Mr. Surferdude is waxing his board. I don't see why some posters feel like the storm can't escape east, it's not like we have some incredible blocking pattern or anything like that, we see these recurces in similar patterns all the time, the only thing is that the pattern might not be conductive for the storm to juts fly off to the NE once it gains some latitude (there's a ridge out in the Atlantic so it might meander a bit) but as always, we're getting a bit ahead of ourselves. Someone should compare the current pattern to that of the one in place for Hurricane Felix of 1995. Recurved just off NC, and stalled INVO Bermuda for days, before finally looping and headed out to sea for good. Never forget that one...maddening. Man, I was pissed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Its hard to get records for storms before 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Oh yah... I'm in the crosshairs. Kiss of death, here we go, I'm almost guaranteed to experience storm force conditions with present forecast track. Almost envision a parallel track from MIA to DAB. Alas that be the my "weiner" comment. I don't have a clue, well maybe a little, as to track and strength so I'll be glued to every statement out of the NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Just really is something to see so many 12z operational models agreeing on monster tempest off the SE U.S. Coast this day... Already as is, ...we're talking surf/tide concerns from LI to Cuba/PR with that, without even considering any direct strike. Buuut, several days to fumble around and f this up so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I remember Felix. I almost got stranded in Virginia Beach on vacation with my then girlfriend before I could fly home ahead of the storm that wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Its hard to get records for storms before 2001. no its not http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us0816.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 My brother lives a mile from daytona beach might be time to visit if things get interesting if this hits the east coast from florida to new england I want to experience it but only if it ends up being a cat 2 or better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Just really is something to see so many 12z operational models agreeing on monster tempest off the SE U.S. Coast this day... Already as is, ...we're talking surf/tide concerns from LI to Cuba/PR with that, without even considering any direct strike. Buuut, several days to fumble around and f this up so - Tip you do realize this is my dream come true? Please don't f that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Tip you do realize this is my dream come true? Please don't f that upI gave you a shoutout before, we all assumed you were waxing your surfboard in the nude while running the Euro on a continuous loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I gave you a shoutout before, we all assumed you were waxing your surfboard in the nude while running the Euro on a continuous loop. It's like 12" of powder dumping every night for a week for the ski guys!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 In any case... Erika looks bad right now. Not saying it's her destiny, but looping the last 2 hours of hi res imagery clearly shows that either the center, or perhaps one of the centers (not uncommon for situating newbies...) has just been bodily ejected toward the west-NW out of the region of on-going deep convection. Said region is also representing cyclonic curl, as perhaps vorticity remnant from whenever this thing was better vertically integrated; now that mid level vortex has sheared off the llv one, and they part company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's like 12" of powder dumping every night for a week for the ski guys!!!!The 18Z GFS will not disappoint you, so far it looks similar to the Euro with a very strong hurricane (sub 940mb) heading NE off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Superstorm in the North Atlantic caused by Erika remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Erika is developing much stronger and much larger convection blobs closer to her mid level circulation, I think this circulation becomes more dominant in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Erika is developing convection in earnest over her mid level circulation center. Outflow is improving around this mid level circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 With the blocking ridge being modeled to the NE, I think the Carolinas may end up being the primary threat zone. Maybe something like 90-105 mph winds near MYR for a preliminary guess here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 With the blocking ridge being modeled to the NE, I think the Carolinas may end up being the primary threat zone. Maybe something like 90-105 mph winds near MYR for a preliminary guess here. Obviously the users know this already ... but, the GFDL is still scarier than that, though. I don't think it's our place (not scolding you so take it the right way -) to even speculate. So I will ... I can see a myriad of evolutions panning out. It seems though, that the greatest common denominator behavior, one that may even be more at 'hinted' than actually depicted (depending on the model used) is this notion of a ridge in the middle latitudes rolling through the MA/NE regions WHILE Erika approaches and passes either through the heart of the Bahamas, or nearby. That is key... because hurricanes will move by two influences in this order: steering level vectors; beta drift. Beta drift is like torque - it's basically like a spinning baseball "curves" ... the angular momentum of the hurricane combined with Coriolis imparts a tendency to move it right in time. So naturally... it is the weaker of the two motivators. The bigger one is the steering winds. Right now... pretty unanimously among the guidance I have seen (trends therein) over the last 36 hours worth of runs, there should be some sort of mid level weakness/shear axis/or weak troughing around the lat/lon of the Tennessee Valley. This, while west Atlantic mid level ridge puts the kibosh on any early escape to the graveyard. So Erika may be impelled to move generally WNW under that longitudinal cap, until it detects the weakness over the interior SE U.S., and then turns NW (circa Bahamas ...) that initially "looks" like a the classic set up for an EC run (or even a Long Island Express), but ...heh, nope. That ridge rolling through the 40th parallel/70W is another longitudinal cap that is completely wrong for that sort of track excitement. But it doesn't appear "deflecting" Erika W or E would work [necessarily] either. It really seems coming to a slow down or stall off the U.S. SE coast seems the best fit for an aging middle range period. Taking the 00z global GFS and blending it with the 06z version, would tend to average out that way anyway.. And the Euro's completely losing it rather abruptly like that... not sure that sort of continuity argument applies to the tropics; obviously elsewhere in the atmosphere the run would probably be tossed, but ...never know - could be seeing interaction with mountain elevations along the PR archipelago ..., over playing shear, who knows. Erika does seem to be a little S of the earlier runs this week... interesting. Currently Erika doesn't look that great to me and never has, despite these pretty colored convective balls that occasionally balloon. That could change, fast..sure, but given to the preponderance of shear in intervening layers that may not be over the next day or two. Whether the Euro's on to something or not, a somewhat S adjustment/assumption to track guidance isn't entirely unjustified, either, given to what appears to be a constant tendency for the convection to regroup center fixes slightly S. And that adds uncertainty out in time, too. So in the end, myriad of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTFarmer Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Now I'm curious, because 1938 was mentioned and I have a great deal of history/pictures from grandparents/uncles/aunts on the CT shoreline who lived through it- the only synoptic similarities I can find in writing are that particular hurricane coming north from the Bahamas with known high pressure to the east of the storm preventing recurve. The only synoptic map of the time I can find online is basically at landfall, not 5 days previous. I'm not so much curious about parallels between Erika and 1938, but if anyone has any synoptic maps for any time leading up to when it was of the Carolinas, I'd appreciate it. And as far as Erika goes, I'm curious about how the orientation of that evolving TN Valley-aligned ridge could affect the ultimate movement from the Carolina coast. Possible for a weakness to form to the Northeast and the Cape gets some surf going into Labor Day weekend as Erika escapes that way? Or hard east turn without picking up any latitude? EDIT: Nevermind, found this: http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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