Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I think the shear may increase a bit, but I'm not in the poo-poo camp either. I noticed the 12z GFS looks better in terms of not opening it up to a wave now. If you look at all the guidance, many models are above 50-60kts which may be telling. Of course hurricane intensity is difficult to determine, but I think writing it off as a garbage 40kt TS is wrong. think NHC is pretty spot on for intensity and direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I think the shear may increase a bit, but I'm not in the poo-poo camp either. I noticed the 12z GFS looks better in terms of not opening it up to a wave now. If you look at all the guidance, many models are above 50-60kts which may be telling. Of course hurricane intensity is difficult to determine, but I think writing it off as a garbage 40kt TS is wrong. I agree. Earlier I questioned the apparent acquiescence to weak sauce solutions...almost like a defense mechanism. I don't see why that should be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The most intriguing part of this for me is that the system could stall near the Florida coast for days and if we have a robust system, literally pound the crap out of E FL, only weakening from upwelling with a massive ridge locked in to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The GFS spitting out an area of 14"+ of rain near the Space Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 This may have a similar sensible impact to that of Frances a few years back. Less progressive (more rain) and probably less surge, as Fran had peaked at 145 mph over the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 think NHC is pretty spot on for intensity and direction Yeah agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Going to be in Florida and the Carribean just a couple weeks to late. Will be down there from the Sept 11-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Yeah agree. Hopefully a more robust solution plays out. The primary story in that scenario would be rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Hopefully a more robust solution plays out. The primary story in that scenario would be rainfall. Good drought buster for Florida, how they often end down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I would say that there is a developing area of vorticity underneath 5-10 knots of shear and over 31C water temperatures over the western Bahamas and flaring pretty deep convection currently. Though satellite imagery suggests no low present currently if it can sustain convection I could see possible development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Good drought buster for Florida, how they often end down there. Maybe the next system could end world hunger. Disaster is overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Hopefully a more robust solution plays out. The primary story in that scenario would be rainfall. I mean as a best guess...it's pretty reasonable as they usually are, 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Erika is developing equatorward banding and inflow on the south side of the circulation, signs of further development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Maybe the next system could end world hunger. Disaster is overrated. Tip give you his shrooms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 So where do we think Erika goes after Florida? I am still really dry and would love to see Erika's moisture make it up the east coast. Will that happen or will she just sit with high pressure up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Tip and I get a room? Momma Tippy still like sex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Really I like where Erika is headed. If she can get north of PR and Hispaniola she will rapidly intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I see further signs of development with Erika currently. Southern inflow is strengthening, convection is starting to fire up on the whole eastern side of the circulation and to the southwest of Erika the inflow is starting to fire up convection over the Leeward Islands. I think Erika will fight the shear off and intensify north of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I see further signs of development with Erika currently. Southern inflow is strengthening, convection is starting to fire up on the whole eastern side of the circulation and to the southwest of Erika the inflow is starting to fire up convection over the Leeward Islands. I think Erika will fight the shear off and intensify north of PR. I'd like to see the low level center more centered under the deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I'd like to see the low level center more centered under the deep convection. SO would I, but for a sheared system it is doing quite well. Convection is trying to wrap around the eastern side of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 SO would I, but for a sheared system it is doing quite well. Convection is trying to wrap around the eastern side of the circulation. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 12z GFDL shows a monster 125-130 knot hurricane in 5 days sitting over the Gulf stream or just south of it over 30C waters and wind shear is being buffeted by a large upper level anticyclone. This is major problem as a large ridge replaces the troughing over the Eastern US by day 5 and pushes the hurricane back westward towards the East Coast, SNE is still in the zone of uncertainty in my opinion as we are not certain if Erika strengthens rapidly north of the Leeward Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 12z GFDL shows a monster 125-130 knot hurricane in 5 days sitting over the Gulf stream or just south of it over 30C waters and wind shear is being buffeted by a large upper level anticyclone. This is major problem as a large ridge replaces the troughing over the Eastern US by day 5 and pushes the hurricane back westward towards the East Coast, SNE is still in the zone of uncertainty in my opinion as we are not certain if Erika strengthens rapidly north of the Leeward Antilles. I think that is reaching.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 How is that a reach, new models coming in showing Erika moving eastward with track and a stronger hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The Euro now misses the US altogether as it turns north just east of Florida and then right before the Carolinas, it does have a powerful strom east of the Carolinas so sufers all along the east coast would like for that run to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 How is that a reach, new models coming in showing Erika moving eastward with track and a stronger hurricane. If it were to recurve that quickly, then it would fish out because we do not have a properly positioned trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Looping the vis it looks like the LLC is now clearly NW of the convection. Almost looks like another center in the middle of the convection. Could a new center form further SE? Don't like to see the LLC so exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The Euro no misses the US altogether as it turns north just east of Florida and then right before the Carolinas, it does have a powerful strom east of the Carolinas so sufers all along the east coast would like for that run to verify. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Almost seems two camps of relatively boring, yet tantalizing at the same time: 1) Hits the US as weak sauce minimal cane. 2) Goes to town and blows through the goal posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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